DJIA 9064.62 -78.71 (-0.86%) S&P 500 1107.90 -11.68 (-1.04%) Nasdaq 1868.96 -12.43 (-0.66%) Value Line ndx 979.32 -9.07 (-0.92%) 30-Year Bond 102 14/32 +14/32 5.95 Yield
Vivus Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VVUS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VVUS)") end if %> surged $1 1/4 to $12 3/4 as the most actively traded company on the Nasdaq today, trading more than 17 million shares on speculation that its male impotence treatment Muse will benefit on the coattails of Pfizer's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %> new drug Viagra. Regional brokerage Cruttenden Roth yesterday raised its rating on Vivus, which was trading at $8 on Wednesday, to a "strong buy" with a 1998 price target of $23 a share, arguing that patients with erectile dysfunction who find Viagra ineffective may opt to try Muse instead. The problem is that comparing Viagra to Muse is like comparing apples to oranges. While Viagra is essentially a blue, easy-to-swallow pill, Muse is a single-use plastic applicator containing a micro-suppository of alprostadil, a drug that increases penile blood flow that is inserted about an inch into the urethra where the medication is released. It's easy to see why Viagra would be preferred over Muse despite the fact Viagra is best at treating mild to moderate impotence and may cause side effects such as headaches and dizziness. Investors who drove up Vivus today seemed to forget that Vivus reported a worse-than-expected Q1 loss of $0.07 a share, down from a profit of $0.27 for the year-earlier period.
Internet content aggregator Infoseek Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEEK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEEK)") end if %> jumped $2 9/16 to $31 after yesterday reporting a 131% increase in Q1 revenues to $14.3 million and a loss of $0.05 per share compared with a loss of $0.16 per share in Q1 1997. Analysts had expected a loss of $0.10 per share. The company's traffic continued to increase during the quarter, with average page views growing 41% from December 1997. Infoseek's better-than-expected earnings fueled another upward charge in its competitors. Rival Yahoo! Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %> gained $2 9/16 to $114 3/4 and Excite Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XCIT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XCIT)") end if %> rose $5/8 to $60 3/4, but Lycos Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LCOS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LCOS)") end if %> finished down $11/16 to $53 1/2. Internet services provider American Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %> also rose $3 1/4 to $74 1/2.
QUICK TAKES: Hewlett-Packard <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") end if %> jumped $8 to $74 5/8 on optimism that its printer business is growing and it may not have the PC inventory problems plaguing some of its competitors. In addition, Prudential Securities raised its rating on the diversified electronics company to "buy" from "hold"... Pharmaceutical company Pfizer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %> gained another $2 7/8 to $118 1/4 in its run-up following the launch of its new male impotence drug Viagra as Merrill Lynch reiterated its near- and long-term "buy" ratings on the company. At the company's annual shareholders' meeting yesterday, CEO William Steere said it was too early to gauge potential sales, according to Reuters... Gateway 2000 <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GTW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GTW)") end if %> rose $1 1/4 to $58 1/2 after Standard & Poor's announced late yesterday that the PC direct marketer will replace USF&G Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FG)") end if %> in the S&P 500 Index after today's close.
Allied Waste Industries <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AWIN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AWIN)") end if %> added $2 5/8 to $26 3/16 after announcing it will acquire privately held waste hauler Rabanco Companies, which will add $175 million to the solid waste services company's annual revenue... Diversified specialty finance company United Pan Am Financial <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UPFC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UPFC)") end if %> leapt $2 15/16 to $13 15/16 from an initial offering price of $11... Specialty semiconductor designer Xilinx Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XLNX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XLNX)") end if %> charged ahead $4 to $46 3/4 after reporting late yesterday fourth quarter EPS of $0.39, a penny higher than last year and three cents ahead of analysts' expectations. The company also announced the resignation of its chief financial officer as well as a share buyback program to repurchase up to three million shares.
Engineering design software company Avant! Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVNT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVNT)") end if %> surged $6 to $24 7/8 after announcing that a federal judge has indicated he won't include the company's new design software under an existing injunction... Consulting firm Charles River Associates (Nadsaq: CRAI) rocketed ahead $8 1/8 to $23 1/8 from its initial public offering price of $18.50... Automotive parts manufacturer Federal-Mogul Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FMO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FMO)") end if %> roared ahead for a second day, gaining $4 7/16 to $64 7/8 after yesterday reporting Q1 earnings of $0.63 per share (before charges), well ahead of estimates... Networking solutions supplier FORE Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FORE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FORE)") end if %> advanced $2 1/2 to $19 7/8 after yesterday reporting Q4 EPS of $0.13, up from $0.04 last year. The First Call mean estimate was $0.11.
Glenayre Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GEMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GEMS)") end if %> finished up $1 to $14 7/8 after Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating on the telecommunications equipment and software company to "trading buy" from "market perform"... Dollar Tree Stores <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") end if %> rose $3 1/2 to $53 5/8 after Salomon Smith Barney reiterated its "strong buy" rating on the discount retail chain... Local telephone exchange carrier US LEC Corp. gained $9 3/16 to $24 3/16 from an initial offering price of $15... Graphite electrodes manufacturer UCAR International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UCR)") end if %> added $2 1/4 to $32 1/2 after announcing that Trinity Capital Management and its affiliates have acquired a 5.1% stake in the company... Globalstar Telecommunications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GSTRF)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GSTRF)") end if %>, the satellite telecommunications partnership, jumped $3 5/8 to $71 3/4 after announcing that Loral Space & Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LOR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LOR)") end if %> has offered to raise its stake in the Globalstar partnership to 42% from about 38% for up to $420 million. Loral would then sell half of the newly acquired shares to billionaire investor George Soros.
Earnings Movers
Applied Voice Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVTC)") end if %> up $4 15/16 to $43; Q1 EPS: $0.32 (before charges) vs. $0.21; Estimate: $0.28
ArthroCare Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ARTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ARTC)") end if %> up $7/8 to $15 7/8; Q1 EPS: loss of $0.17 (before gains) vs. loss of $0.21 last year; Estimate: loss of $0.19
Best Software <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BEST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BEST)") end if %> up $1 1/2 to $20 1/4; Q1 EPS: $0.17 (before charges) v.s $0.12 last year; Estimate: $0.12
Business Objects <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BOBJY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BOBJY)") end if %> up $3 1/2 to $18 3/8; Q1 EPS: $0.08 vs. $0.06 last year; Estimate: $0.04
Dal-Tile International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DTL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DTL)") end if %> up $1 1/2 to $14 1/4; Q1 EPS: $0.02 vs. $0.12 last year; Estimate: loss of $0.09
Fair, Isaac & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FIC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FIC)") end if %> up $4 15/16 to $38 5/8; Q2 EPS: $0.38 vs. $0.38 last year; Estimate: $0.36
U.S. Airways Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: U)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: U)") end if %> fell $3 5/16 to $73 11/16 after the Arlington, Virginia-based airline announced a marketing agreement with AMR Corp.'s <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMR)") end if %> American Airlines that will connect their separate frequent flyer programs. The airlines also will start a code sharing arrangement for their regional carriers, US Airways Express and American Eagle. Upon further discussions with their respective pilots unions, the code sharing alliance may be extended to other flights, the carriers said. But, presaging possible government concerns, President Bill Clinton rained on the airlines' parade by saying the deal's effect on competition in the industry should be evaluated. "It requires a level of analysis about what is really going on here and why," he said at a press conference today, referring also to recent mergers in other U.S. industries. AMR ended the day down $3 3/16 to $152 1/16.
Interactive entertainment software developer Midway Games <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MWY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MWY)") end if %> lost $2 1/4 to $18 3/4 after reporting fiscal Q3 EPS of $0.18 versus $0.17 a year ago, which was at the low end of the range of estimates by analysts surveyed by First Call and a penny below the mean. Revenues from games made for Sony Corp.'s <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SNE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SNE)") end if %> PlayStation and the Nintendo 64 home entertainment systems jumped 16.4% to $52.9 million from the year before. The home market accounted for 56% of total revenues with revenues from coin-operated video machines making up the remaining 44%, down from 54% a year ago. Part of the shift can be attributed to the delay of the coin-operated game Hyper Drive, which will be released in Q4. However, gross margins slid to 54% from 64% a year ago, suggesting that the company may be wise to devote more of its resources to the higher-margin home entertainment market going forward.
QUICK CUTS: Privatized correctional and detention facilities operator Corrections Corp. of America <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CCA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CCA)") end if %> slid $1 13/16 to $24 7/8 after a shareholder filed suit against the company yesterday
claiming that its proposed merger with prison REIT CCA Prison Realty Trust <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PZN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PZN)") end if %> is "wrongful, unfair, and harmful" to Corrections Corp. shareholders... Appliance, camping equipment, and fire alarm maker Sunbeam Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SOC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SOC)") end if %> fell $7/8 to $25 7/8 as investors feared the worst following the company's decision to delay the release of its first quarter financial report from April 29 to May 11... Microsoft Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> dropped $2 1/2 to $92 after The Wall Street Journal said federal authorities are investigating whether the software giant used its market power to try to persuade rival browser company Netscape Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NSCP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NSCP)") end if %> to enlist in an alleged plot to divy-up the Internet software market.
Chocolate bar and candy maker Hershey Foods Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HSY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HSY)") end if %> dipped $1 15/16 to $68 3/4 after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.52, which was in line with the Street's estimate... Music seller K-tel International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KTEL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KTEL)") end if %> lost another $9 1/2 to $26 3/4 after an analyst at Janssen Meyers Associates tagged the stock with a "sell" rating yesterday, saying its risk-reward metric is "incomprehensible"... DAOU Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DAOU)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DAOU)") end if %>, which designs and manages computer networks for the healthcare industry, declined $3 7/16 to $18 7/8 after reporting fiscal Q1 EPS of $0.10 (before charges), topping the Street estimate by a penny. However, the company saw its gross margins erode during the quarter to 60% from 66% the year before.
Information technology education services firm Computer Learning Centers <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CLCX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CLCX)") end if %> tumbled $1 to $11 after an article in the latest edition of Business Week reviewed recent allegations against the company, including claims that the company admitted students to its computer education programs who had not earned their General Equivalency Diplomas (GED), which would be a violation of federal law... Semiconductor and flat panel display cleaning equipment manufacturer CFM Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CFMT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CFMT)") end if %> fell $1 7/8 to $11 5/8 after the company said reduced spending by its customers will result in a fiscal Q2 loss of about $0.40 per share... Cymer Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CYMI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CYMI)") end if %>, which makes excimer lasers for deep ultraviolet (DUV) photolithography systems, dropped $1 11/16 to $23 9/16 after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.09, in line with the Street estimate. The company said it expects sequentially flat revenues in fiscal Q2 and higher production costs from introducing new lasers, suggesting earnings in the quarter will be squeezed.
Wireless communications systems supplier Allen Telecom <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALN)") end if %> slipped $13/16 to $15 9/16 after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.23, missing the First Call mean estimate by $0.02. The company blamed the shortfall on weakness in the U.S. and Asian wireless markets and a reduction in gross margins, primarily at the firm's European Site Management unit... Analog chip maker TelCom Semiconductor <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLCM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLCM)") end if %> slid $1 3/8 to $9 5/8 after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.12. The Street had been expecting EPS of $0.13 for the quarter... Internet software developer Open Market <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OMKT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OMKT)") end if %> fell $2 to $18 after reporting a Q1 loss of $0.18 per share. The First Call mean estimate called for a loss of $0.15 per share. The company said two software contracts were delayed and will be accounted for in Q2 rather than Q1.
Primus Telecommunications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRTL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRTL)") end if %> dropped $2 to $25 after Furman Selz downgraded the provider of domestic and international long-distance phone service to "hold" from "buy"... Metals processing firm Philip Services Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PHV)") end if %> fell $15/16 to $8 after its auditors determined that the firm's 10-K financial statements understated liabilities from various copper transactions by about $30 million, which caused earnings to be overstated... Frontier Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FRO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FRO)") end if %> lost $2 3/8 to $29 3/8 after reporting Q1 EPS of approximately $0.22, in line with the First Call mean estimate but well below the top of the range of estimates at $0.26. The results include a $0.03 per share one-time charge to account for costs from the company's acquisition of Internet and data services provider GlobalCenter Inc.
Yellow Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YELL)") end if %> jack-knifed $1 1/16 to $18 5/8 after Schroder & Co. reduced its rating on the national and regional freight hauler to "perform in line" from "outperform"... Property-casualty and life insurer American International Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AIG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AIG)") end if %> lost $6 11/16 to $131 1/2 after receiving a downgrade to "outperform" from "buy" from Salomon Smith Barney.
[Correction: In yesterday's Quick Cuts, we incorrectly listed the Q1 EPS for EIS International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EISI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EISI)") end if %> as a loss of $0.32. EIS actually reported Q1 EPS of $0.09, versus a loss of $0.32 last year.]
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by
Dale Wettlaufer
American Express Analysis
American Express <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") end if %> ticked down $1 3/16 to $101 7/8 today following the company's earnings report yesterday. The charge card, asset management and brokerage firm, travel services provider, and membership-based marketer reported EPS of $1.11 before extraordinary items. Those unusual items included a gain on the sale of First Data Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FDC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FDC)") end if %> common stock (which used to be a subsidiary but has recently been classified as "investments held for sale") as well as a credit to income for the receipt of a dividend on Lehman Brothers <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LEH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LEH)") end if %> preferred stock.
Another item that was presented as "unusual" was an increase in credit loss reserves at its American Express Bank unit, representing deteriorating credit quality in the company's Asia/Pacific portfolio, principally in Indonesian assets. Seeing as how lending is a lumpy business in that credit quality issues can come along at any time, especially in a global financial services firm, there really is no such thing as an "unusual item" when it comes to credit loss reserves. If credit quality trends are unfavorable, a company has to increase its reserves to account for the eventual loss of assets and the hit to retained earnings and owners' equity.
However, Amex beefed up its reserves by about twice what its nonperforming loan experience in Asia/Pacific would really dictate, but given that the Indonesian economy has not rebounded from the hangover it put on during a multi-year party, the conservative-minded investor would hesitate to treat any part of the company's increase provision as "unusual." If one is so inclined, though, the company's EPS would have been one of these four amounts under varying scenarios:
(all diluted per-share figures)
Net EPS���������...$0.98
EPS before all unusual items�$1.11
EPS counting total increase to
EPS with Asian Reserves
Addition as a "non-unusual"
Expense������.���..$0.89
EPS with 50% of Asian
Reserve Addition as
"unusual expense"�����..$0.96
This is not to say that a company of Amex's quality and integrity is trying to play the EBBS, or "earnings before bad stuff," game, but just that an analyst and investor has room to look at a company's results in a number of different ways and not just in the way that a company or others present it. Investors will be happier using one of the latter two EPS figures as their baseline EPS number next year if Japanese credits take a hit or Europe slumps and reserves are increased for those problems. It is hard to imagine that Amex will report as extraordinary income the absence of credit loss provision expenses if charge-off or net charge-off (charge-offs minus recoveries) activity proves to be more favorable than expected.
In all, though, the company experienced another fine quarter judging by strategic goals met. Before unusual items, revenues grew 9% and return on equity (ROE) was above 23%. As we pointed out earlier this year, Amex achieves its ROE goals through high asset turnover and not through leverage or margins. With a slightly lower level of leverage than the average large financial services company, the company's main driver in increasing ROE going forward could be an increase in margins. With ever-improving time-to-market performance on new products, margin improvement appears entirely possible. Given this, the company has room to throttle back on leverage to achieve its ROE targets
While American Express Financial Advisors' client retention was favorable, at 95%, the company actually lost advisors during the period, as advisors fell from 9,976 at the end of the year to 9,838 at the end of Q1. Both periods include approximately 1,200 advisors that came in via the acquisition of independent broker-dealer Securities America. Leaving out the acquired advisors, though, the number of native Amex advisors has stagnated, with only 1.9% growth since the end of the first half of fiscal 1997.
Charge card growth was excellent, as cards in force grew 3% and total worldwide billed business increased 10%. Although the company didn't break out charge card market share (ex. debit cards), the Nilson Report last quarter reported 1997 market share of 18.45% for Amex, up from 18.31% in 1996. Credit quality trends actually improved in many areas year over year, and reserves as a percentage of past-due accounts in worldwide charge cards improved to 131% from 124% at the end of Q1 1998.
The company didn't put out a balance sheet except for listing shareholders' equity, so investors interested in checking that out will have to wait for the company's 10-Q filing to be made within the next 45 days. In the interim, American Express has been kind enough to open its conference call to interested investors. The number for the call replay, which is available through Thursday, April 30, is (402) 220-8535.
Clarification: On Tuesday, I mentioned ICC Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ICGN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ICGN)") end if %> in the context of a story on mania-like action in Internet-related (in deed or in name) stocks. I also said one of the things that made me retch about the mania was that I was writing on the subject in a very Alan Abelson-like fashion, since I feel that Abelson is clueless much of the time. Well, I was definitley the one that was clueless, pulling a very Wise comment on ICC. Although I cautioned that I could be painting companies with a broad brush, that's no excuse for slap-dash commentary, which is what my comment on ICC was. The company does not appear as insubstantial as my comments would make it appear to be. Sorry for the slip in judgment.
Please see the Motley Fool's Conference Calls page for call information and links to synopses.
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Contributing Writers Yi-Hsin Chang (TMF Puck), a Fool Brian Graney (TMF Panic), Fool Two Alex Schay (TMF Nexus6), Fool, too Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), Final Fool
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