OMNI INSURANCE GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OMGR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OMGR)") end if %> leapt $13 1/4 to $30 7/8 after
HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HIG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HIG)") end if %> reported that it would acquire
the non-standard auto insurer for $187 million in cash, or $31 3/4 per share.
Omni has recorded only two quarterly losses in the last 18 quarters and has
reported a steady string of quarterly earnings in the low- to mid-$0.20 per
share range over the last four quarters. With trailing EPS of $0.94, the
company is a heck of a lot more stable than Integon, the acquisition of which
was wrapped up today by the GMAC division of GENERAL MOTORS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> -- and Integon was taken out at a much larger multiple to tangible book
value (backing out only goodwill from the balance sheet). Omni hasn't had
underwriting problems, at least according to its earnings, and has solidly
made money in the tricky market of writing insurance for drivers with less-than-
stellar records. If Omni's management group agrees to stay on, The Hartford
looks to have made a nice deal here.
INFINITY FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INFN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INFN)") end if %> jumped $2 5/8 to $16
3/8 after the company was acquired by SUNGARD DATA SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SDS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SDS)") end if %> in a stock-swap valued at $313 million before the market opened today.
The acquisition will allegedly enhance SunGard's "best-of-breed" derivatives
and risk management product suite. This is another example of the power of
distributed information systems in financial disintermediation, where the
edge held by bankers in the derivatives business is an information edge and
not merely a structural advantage held by just being a banker. With more
decision-making and information gathering power available to non-financial
companies for structuring their needs in interest-rate swaps or currency
hedging, the grip held by bankers on this business is loosening.
QUICK TAKES: APT SATELLITE HOLDINGS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ATS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ATS)") end if %> jumped $3 to
$17 1/8 after China Aerospace took a 14.3% stake in the company, which controls
APT Satellite, a China-backed satellite operator... Salesforce automation
software company SIEBEL SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEBL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEBL)") end if %> rose $4 7/8 to $48
1/8 after the company reported earning $0.14 per share in the third quarter,
four cents higher than consensus estimates... Manufacturing process software
company COMPUTATIONAL SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSIN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSIN)") end if %> gained $7 13/16 to $28
1/4 after agreeing to be acquired by electronics maker and industrial components
manufacturer EMERSON ELECTRIC <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EMR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EMR)") end if %> in a cash and stock deal
valuing each share of Computational Systems at $29.65... Audiovisual integrated
circuit and software company ESS TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ESST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ESST)") end if %> rose $1
3/8 to $14 3/16 on reporting Q3 revenues of $52.2 million and EPS of $0.04,
in line with guidance issued by the company early in the month.
NANOMETRICS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NANO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NANO)") end if %> added $1 1/16 to $11 7/16 after the
maker of automated measurement systems weighed in with Q3 revenues of $9.4
million and EPS of $0.17, up 104% over last year and in line with estimates...
Long distance, PCS, and local phone service provider SPRINT CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FON)") end if %> gained $3 to $56 9/16 as company Chair William Esry told investors that
the company wouldn't sell out for something as piddling as a 20% takeover
premium but that it would consider higher valuations... Industrial automation
company ELSAG BAILEY PROCESS AUTOMATION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EBY)") end if %> rose $1 7/16 to
$18 5/8 after state-owned Italian holding company IRI said it will eventually
privatize its holdings and that the sale of Elsag Bailey would kick off that
process, according to Reuters... IOMEGA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") end if %> rose
$1 11/16 to $26 7/16 after the removable media data storage company reported
Q3 EPS of $0.22, beating estimates of $0.20... Offshore oil and gas driller
CLIFFS DRILLING CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CDG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CDG)") end if %> was jacked up $2 13/16 to $66 1/2
on announcing the acquisition of three offshore drillings rigs from Well
Services Marine Ltd. for total consideration of $47 million... DIODES,
INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: DIO)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: DIO)") end if %> moved up $1 1/2 to $14 7/8 after the maker of discrete
semiconductor devices reported Q3 EPS of $0.24 on revenues of $16.9 million.
Disk drive giant SEAGATE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SEG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SEG)") end if %> fell $5 3/16 to $32 1/8 after
reporting Q1 fiscal 1998 EPS of $0.08 before charges for the markdown of
foreign currency hedging contracts and for the acquisition of Quinta Corp.,
a developer of optical technologies for Winchester disk drives. Investors
were stunned by the company missing earnings estimates of $0.37 per share,
especially given that there were no pre-announcements from the company when
it was extremely careful to guide down estimates last quarter. Performance
was hurt by pricing in desktop drives, which also affected competitors
QUANTUM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QNTM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QNTM)") end if %> and WESTERN DIGITAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WDC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WDC)") end if %> in the
quarter, as well as weakened demand for the company's high-end disk drives,
reflecting loss of market share, according to most analysts following the
sector. Given that Seagate is vertically integrated and employs over 100,000
people, its earnings performance is highly leveraged to minute changes in
revenue results. Reading an industry pattern into Seagate's performance might
miss the essence of the situation unless one fears CEO Al Shugart's desire
to win back market share through price cuts.
ANADIGICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ANAD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ANAD)") end if %> lost $3 27/32 to $39 5/8 after yesterday
reporting Q3 EPS of $0.26, $0.02 per share above estimates. Revenues for
all business lines of the gallium arsenide semiconductor maker fell sequentially
except for its wireless communications business, which increased 33%
sequentially. Though Anadigics exited the quarter with 80% of its revenues
for the coming quarter in the bag as orders, some investors might be worried
that the company made its earnings this quarter based on expense controls
and not robust revenue growth. As wireless communications moves to higher
and higher frequencies in the millimeter wave range, however, investors are
looking forward to continued growth in Anadigics' core wireless integrated
circuit product lines. BA Robertson Stephens reiterated its "buy" rating
on the company and is reviewing for possible upward revision its 1998 EPS
estimate of $1.20 per share.
Semiconductor equipment companies had a second day of rough going today after
industry trade group Semiconductor Equipment
and Materials International (SEMI) reported a September book-to-bill
ratio of 1.07, down from a revised 1.09 in August. Following yesterday's
declines, wafer processing equipment company APPLIED MATERIALS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") end if %> dropped $2 11/16 to $41 9/16, yield management hardware and software
company KLA-TENCOR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KLAC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KLAC)") end if %> fell $4 1/4 to $58, and wafer
testing company TERADYNE INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TER)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TER)") end if %> was felled for a $5 loss
to $50 11/16. The problem, though, is that the book-to-bill measurement is
a ratio. When the denominator (billings) grows more quickly than the numerator
(bookings), it can look as though things have taken a downturn even if both
grew at very healthy annualized rates around 50%. For the test equipment
makers especially, the book-to-bill ratio of 1.29 was exceptionally strong.
[For more on this topic, join Randy Befumo and Dale Wettlaufer with industry
analyst Carl Johnson of INFRASTRUCTURE
later tonight on our Real Audio program
"Stock Talk."]
QUICK CUTS: Millimeter wave radio manufacturer P-COM INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PCMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PCMS)") end if %> fell $6 to $22 on reporting a 91% gain in Q3 revenues and EPS of $0.12,
double last year's result and in line with the First Call mean estimate...
SUN MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") end if %> dropped $3 15/16 to $38 3/8 even though
the workstation, semiconductor, and software company reported a 28% jump
in Q1 EPS (before charges) of $0.41. Revenue growth of 13% might have concerned
the legion of analysts that downgraded their ratings on the shares, as might
have the company's filing for a shelf registration of $1 billion in debt...
Struck by the SEMI book-to-bill ratio, ASYST TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASYT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASYT)") end if %> fell $5 5/16 to $29 and BROOKS AUTOMATION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BRKS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BRKS)") end if %> lost
$4 11/16 to $32 7/8 as investors fat with unrealized profits from holding
the makers of semiconductor fabrication automation equipment bailed out.
TELCOM SEMICONDUCTOR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLCM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLCM)") end if %> fell $1 5/8 to $11 7/8 after reporting
record Q3 EPS of $0.12, in line with estimates. The company added, however,
that it sees flat sequential sales growth and that it's seeing volatility
in ordering patterns from its largest OEM customers... Offshore drilling
unit services company FRIEDE GOLDMAN INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FGII)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FGII)") end if %>
slipped $4 1/8 to $31 after being awarded a contract to convert a barge into
a power generating unit for EL PASO ENERGY INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EPG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EPG)") end if %>...
IRIDEX CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IRIX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IRIX)") end if %> dropped $1 1/4 to $10 3/4 as the maker
of photocoagulator systems for ophthalmic procedures reported Q3 revenues
of $4.6 million and EPS of $0.09, up 125% over last year... Communications
equipment manufacturer DYNATECH CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DYT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DYT)") end if %> fell $5 5/16 to
$37 3/4 on reporting Q2 revenues of $116 million and record EPS of $0.60,
which fell short of the mean First Call estimate of $0.62... CLAYTON HOMES
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CMH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CMH)") end if %> was taken down $1 3/8 to $17 9/16 after the manufactured
homes company reported Q1 EPS of $0.25, up 14% over last year.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion by Randy
Befumo
Crash Course -- Why it Won't Happen That Way Again
Many people remember the events leading up to October 19, 1987. Unfortunately,
very few of them recall the specifics. When many people talk about the dramatic
drop in the overall stock market, they either blame a single cause
(portfolio
insurance) or treat the market fall as if it were something that came
from out of the blue. Far from being a lightning strike or an act of God,
the crash was a single event caused by a complex series of interconnected
events. Hopefully after perusing the
timeline
we have constructed to review the events leading up to the crash, you will
come to the same conclusion.
Although investors stand about today, white-knuckled and awaiting the next
stock market crash, it remains obvious that many of the principal drivers
leading to the October 1987 crash are not present today. The rise in bond
yields, crude oil prices, and the trade deficit combined with the collapse
of the dollar and general investor confidence all provided the context for
the collapse in stocks. Although valuations were near all-time highs prior
to the crash, the valuations themselves did not drive the crash -- it was
the exogenous events that muddled economic forecasts and that in the end
wrecked havoc with bond prices that provoked the cataclysm. Like a closed
room filling with gas from a leaking pipe, it is hard to blame the resulting
explosion completely on the poor soul who struck a match.
In 1987, bond yields went from 7.28% to 10.22% in nine months. If a similar
move in yields were to begin today, yields on 30-year Treasuries would have
to increase to 9.0% by July of 1998. What institutional money manager in
late 1987 would think twice about nabbing bonds yielding 10.22%, very close
to the historical average return from stocks? Not very many. This swelling
in the yield of the average bond was driven by increasing fears of inflation,
the falling dollar, the widening trade deficit, and rising oil prices --
all culminating in mid-October when tensions in the Persian Gulf increased
after the attack on the U.S. frigate Stark. Volatility in the stock
market had been exacerbated for months leading up to October 19th because
of all these factors -- the crash was the culmination of all these factors,
not some natural disaster or force of God.
Looking over the historical record, the collapse of confidence in Wall Street
also appears critical to the collapse in equity prices. With Milken, Boesky,
Siegel, and Freeman all were pulled into court, this was a strike at the
elite of arbitrage and mergers and acquisitions. The level of corruption
and unfair practices that was revealed as routine on Wall Street in the ten
months leading up to the crash can compare only with the systematic abuses
recorded in the late 1920s that led to the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, and formation of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Although it is hard to say with any certainty that this was a crucial
pre-existing factor, it seems clear in retrospect that as more saw Wall Street
as a rigged game, they were less likely to remain confident in the face of
mounting anxiety.
Certainly concrete things like program trading and portfolio insurance also
had a role in the sudden, spectacular collapse on October 19th. However,
a muddied economic picture that drove bond yields up nearly 3.0% and diminished
confidence in Wall Street created a backdrop that made a fall almost inevitable.
Perhaps the reason so many can claim they "called" the crash was because
even at the time this backdrop of rising yields and increased skepticism
was clear. Although over the past few years we have seen short, sharp drops
in the market driven by increased uncertainty about the economy or various
industries, it seems impossible when one looks at the historical record to
come to any other conclusion -- crashes occur after bond yields explode and
confidence begins to waver, not before. People who talk of stock market crashes,
major drops on the scale of 1987, as if they just happen are ignoring the
facts.
[Note: The above is an excerpt from the Motley Fool's look at the
October
1987 stock market crash.]
VISX INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VISX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VISX)") end if %>
(402) 220-4836 -- replay
SYBASE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SYBS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SYBS)") end if %>
(402) 220-0111 -- replay
FREDDIE MAC <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FRE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FRE)") end if %>
(800) 475-6701 (code: 358103) -- replay through 10/17
INTEL CORPORATION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %>
(402) 220-0103 -- replay through 10/17
ECHLIN, INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ECH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ECH)") end if %>
(800) 683-1535 (code: refocus) -- replay through 10/17
ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %>
(800) 475-6701 (code: 358559) -- replay through 10/17
CCA PRISON REALTY TRUST <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PZN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PZN)") end if %>
(402) 220-8775 -- replay through 10/17
USANA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USNA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USNA)") end if %>
(303) 804-1855 (code: 243759) -- replay through 10/18 @ 4:30 pm EDT
SUN MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") end if %>
(800) 633-8284 (reservation # 3086520) -- replay through 10/19
(303) 248-1201 (reservation # 3086520) -- replay for international callers
IOMEGA CORPORATION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") end if %>
(800) 446-4927 -- replay through 10/20
CREE RESEARCH <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CREE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CREE)") end if %>
(800) 633-8284 (code: 3256078) -- replay through 10/21
PLATINUM TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PLAT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PLAT)") end if %>
(800) 642-1687 (code: 635624) -- replay through 10/21
DOCUMENTUM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DCTM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DCTM)") end if %>
(402) 344-1087 -- replay through 10/21
360 COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XO)") end if %>
(402) 220-3014 -- replay until 10/22
AVALON PROPERTIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AVN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AVN)") end if %>
(800) 475-6701 (code: 359042) -- replay through 10/22
(320) 365-3844 (code: 359042) -- replay number for international callers
INTERMET INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INMT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INMT)") end if %>
(800) 475-6701 (code: 360026) -- replay through 10/23
(320) 365-3844 (code: 360026) -- replay for international callers
TRIBUNE COMPANY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRB)") end if %>
1-800-633-8284 (code: 3218583) -- replay through 10/24
RTW INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RTWI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RTWI)") end if %>
(800) 475-6701 (code: 359246) -- replay through 10/24
10/20/97 (Monday)
MICROSOFT CORPORATION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %>
(800) 456-5304 (code: 1017) -- replay through 10/22
10/21/97 (Tuesday)
TIDEWATER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") end if %>
(800) 475-6701 (#358977) -- replay through 10/22 @ 11:00 am EDT
10/21/97 (Tuesday)
RAPTOR SYSTEMS, INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAPT)") end if %>
(402) 220-4216 -- replay through 10/27
10/21/97 (Tuesday)
COMPUTER ASSOCIATES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CA)") end if %>
(888) 243-0816 (code: 5276) -- replay from 10/21 @ 7:00 pm through 10/23
@ 5:00 pm
THIS WEEK'S CONFERENCE CALL SYNOPSES
GREEN TREE FINANCIAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") end if %>
Call
CARLISLE COMPANIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CSL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CSL)") end if %>
Call
WE
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EVENING NEWS...
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Every day, News writers Dale Wettlaufer and Randy Befumo engage in an impromptu discussion about the stories they find most compelling from the day's news, adding color, fresh commentary and the occasional wisecrack for your listening enjoyment. Check it all out in the Motley Fool's Evening Report on RealAudio Produced by partner AudioNet.
Randy Befumo (TMF Templr), a Fool
Fool on the Hill
Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), another
Fool
Heroes & Goats
Brian Bauer (TMF Hoops), and yet
another Fool
Editing