MCI COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCIC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCIC)") end if %> jumped $5 7/8 to $35 1/4 after long-distance, competitive local exchange carrier, and wide area network access provider WORLDCOM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WCOM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WCOM)") end if %> bid to acquire the company for $41.50 per share in WorldCom stock. This deal is beautiful for WorldCom, especially because of the non-dilutive character of the stock swap. At $41.50 per share, MCI is valued at less than 10 times gross cash flow (net income plus depreciation and amortization plus non-cash charges). WorldCom, on the other hand, is valued at more than three times that multiple, making dilution a non-issue for WorldCom shareholders. WorldCom would also increase its global fiber capacity, gain managers who run a tight ship, and offer MCI local loop access. Costs associated with local loop access brought down MCI earnings estimates and reduced the merger valuation that BRITISH TELECOM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BTY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BTY)") end if %> was willing to offer. Given the valuation disparity between WorldCom and MCI and the potential synergies that exist, WorldCom will be able to meet any competing offers without risking a dilution to its future cash flow per share.
In the wake of WorldCom's bid for MCI, investors have launched a wholesale re-valuation of facilities-based interexchange carriers and competitive local exchange carriers. PRIMUS TELECOMMUNICATIONS GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRTL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRTL)") end if %> rose $2 5/8 to $12 5/8; IXC COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IIXC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IIXC)") end if %> gained $2 3/8 to $34 1/8; ICG COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ICGX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ICGX)") end if %> popped up $1 1/4 to $25 3/4; and INTERMEDIA COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ICIX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ICIX)") end if %>, which recently acquired fiber-rich Digex, rose $4 7/8 to $51 13/16. Other companies gaining ground included GST TELECOMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: GST)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: GST)") end if %>, with a $1 1/16 rise to $14 3/4; WINSTAR COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WCII)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WCII)") end if %>, up $2 1/16 to $21 1/4; and TELEPORT COMMUNICATIONS GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCGI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCGI)") end if %>, with a $3 3/4 boost to $48 5/8.
Not only is WorldCom out shopping for MCI, but it also announced a deal to acquire competitive local exchange carrier and diversified telecommunications company BROOKS FIBER PROPERTIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BFPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BFPT)") end if %> for 1.85 shares of WorldCom stock for each Brooks Fiber share. If Brooks can continue its sequential revenue growth rate above 30% over the coming year, the valuation WorldCom has assigned to Brooks is 13 times revenues. Over the next 12 months from that point, if sequential growth slows to 15%, the valuation becomes 7.3 times 1999 revenues -- much closer to the current 6.2 times revenues at which WorldCom is presently valued. Assuming a return on invested capital in the 15-20% range, the current deal could be non-dilutive in two years. Many companies are only willing to wait up to two years for a payback in terms of earnings and cash flow per share on mergers and acquisitions.
Continental investors and arbitrageurs like WorldCom's bid for MCI since the move also lets BRITISH TELECOM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BTY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BTY)") end if %> off the hook. Shares of British Telecom gained $8 to $54 11/16 on word that WorldCom has trumped British Telecom's bid for MCI for the moment. British-based global telecom company CABLE & WIRELESS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") end if %> rose $1 3/8 to $27 1/4 in tandem with British Telecom, even though the company would be facing a new global competitor. British investors apparently see a combination of MCI and WorldCom as a lesser evil than a significantly more robust British Telecom. DEUTSCHE TELEKOM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DT)") end if %>, Europe's largest telecom company, gained $15/16 to $20 on the reduced chance of a realignment of competitive forces in European telecommunications.
QUICK TAKES: Wireless telecommunications equipment provider POWERWAVE TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PWAV)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PWAV)") end if %> gained $3 to $41 3/4 on announcing a $12.8 million order from LG Information & Communications and Samsung Electronics.... MEDICUS SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MECS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MECS)") end if %> rose $1 1/4 to $6 after the healthcare information systems company reported a 10% year-over-year increase in revenues and a quarterly loss. The company says the outlook for upcoming revenue growth looks good... AUTOCYTE INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACYT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACYT)") end if %> moved up $1 15/16 to $10 7/16 on a "strong buy" recommendation from UBS Securities... MYRIAD GENETICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MYGN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MYGN)") end if %> climbed $13/16 higher to $26 3/4 and U.S. BIOSCIENCE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: UBS)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: UBS)") end if %> rose $1 3/4 to $13 1/8 after UBS Securities started coverage of both companies with "buy" ratings... Healthcare information company MECON INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MECN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MECN)") end if %> jumped $1 5/32 to $7 3/16 after industry giant HBO & CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") end if %> said it will market Mecon's "performance benchmarking products to [its] TRENDSTAR decision support customers as part of an integrated product offering."
C TEC CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CTEX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CTEX)") end if %>, which just completed a restructuring to isolate the value of its competitive local phone operations, gained $1 3/4 to $15 5/8 on all of today's telecom action... Wireless communications company ASSOCIATED GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AGRPA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AGRPA)") end if %> added $5 3/4 to $76 1/4 after announcing that Japan's NIPPON TELEGRAPH & TELEPHONE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NTT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NTT)") end if %> will invest $100 million in Associated Group's Teligent unit, which unit offers wireless competitive local exchange telecom services... Former paper company and holder of a significant chunk of land in Florida ST. JOE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SJP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SJP)") end if %> rose $16 to $115 after agreeing to merge with Florida developer Arvida to continue St. Joe's transformation into a major real estate developer and operator... BOSTON BEER CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SAM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SAM)") end if %> gained $1 1/4 to $9 3/4 after brokerage Robert M. Cohen issued a "speculative buy" recommendation on the craft brewer.
Medical device maker U.S. SURGICAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: USS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: USS)") end if %> increased $3 5/8 to $32 7/8 after announcing that it expects "third quarter sales to be the best in nearly five years," quashing strong-dollar worries that had driven the stock lower recently... WHG RESORTS & CASINOS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WHG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WHG)") end if %> gained $1 13/16 to $22 5/16 after the Puerto Rican resort operator agreed to be acquired by real estate investment trust PATRIOT AMERICAN HOSPITALITY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PAH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PAH)") end if %>. WHG Resort shareholders will receive 0.784 shares of Patriot for each WHG share -- subject to adjustments... Bookseller BARNES & NOBLE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BKS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BKS)") end if %> rose $2 1/4 to $30 1/2 after the London Times reported that B&N is launching a multi-million pound foray into the U.K. market. Merrill Lynch also dubbed the company its "Focus One" stock of the week... MANITOWOC INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MTW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MTW)") end if %> advanced $2 3/16 to $37 7/8 on announcing an agreement to buy SerVend International, a manufacturer of ice and beverage dispensers.
GRUPO TELEVISA SA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TV)") end if %> was bid up $2 1/16 to $37 7/8 after J.P. Morgan raised its estimate of fair value for the Mexican broadcaster to $46 1/2 from $42... GULF SOUTH MEDICAL SUPPLY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GSMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GSMS)") end if %> advanced $3 to $29 3/4 on announcing an agreement to acquire Tri-Medical Supply, a $23 million medical supplies distribution subsidiary of VENCOR INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: VC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: VC)") end if %>... ALL AMERICAN COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AACIB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AACIB)") end if %> picked up $2 to $24 3/4 after the television and music production company agreed to be acquired by U.K.-based Pearson plc for $25.50 per share in cash.
3M spin-off IMATION CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IMN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IMN)") end if %> fell $2 3/8 to $24 3/16 after announcing that it expects to miss the third quarter analysts' mean EPS estimate of $0.29, with per-share earnings of $0.11. The maker of storage devices and other products for the imaging and information industries said competitive pressures and a strong U.S. dollar are to blame. Subsequently, Prudential Securities analyst Alex Henderson today reduced his earnings estimates for Imation to $0.72 per share from $1 for 1997, and to $0.80 from $1.65 for 1998. Adding to the problems is the company jeopardizing its future product pipeline by slashing R&D (very un-3M like), which in effect has boosted earnings despite virtually flat sales over the past year and a half. R&D expenditures in 1996 were 18% below fiscal year 1995, and for the first half of 1997 R&D expenditures are down 15% from 1996 numbers. With trailing earnings of $33.1 million and a reduction in total R&D expenditures of $33.8 million over the same period, it is easy to see how R&D cuts translated into positive trailing earnings.
Two pre-announcements issuing downward guidance for third quarter earnings dropped shares of TRIQUINT SEMICONDUCTOR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TQNT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TQNT)") end if %> $7 3/4 to $28 3/8 and ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMD)") end if %> $5 7/16 to $27 1/8 today, and also led to a slew of downgrades on both companies. Gallium arsenide IC technology company TriQuint stated that the shortfall was primarily caused by delayed new product introductions from "certain" wireless customers and inventory increases by other customers in anticipation of the company's fabrication relocation. Advanced Micro said lower yields on its K-6 chips hurt revenues and that its operating loss per share for the quarter would be "substantially larger" than the expected $0.03 loss per share. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter lowered its rating on both companies, moving Advanced Micro Devices to "outperform" from "strong buy" and cutting TriQuint to "neutral" from "outperform." UBS Securities cut its rating on TriQuint to "hold" from "buy."
QUICK CUTS: IVAX CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: IVX)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: IVX)") end if %> tumbled $1 1/8 to $10 13/16 after the generic drug company said it expects a loss from continuing operations to be larger than the $53 million loss from continuing operations the company reported last quarter... TEXAS BIOTECH CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: TXB)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: TXB)") end if %> dropped $7/16 to $5 5/16 after it offered 5 million common shares for public sale at $5 each through Lehman Brothers and PaineWebber... Aircrew training systems company ENVIRONMENTAL TECTONICS CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: ETC)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: ETC)") end if %> lost altitude by $5/8 to $10 3/4 after posting 2Q EPS of $0.11... Telecommunications and computer timing device manufacturer DATUM INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DATM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DATM)") end if %> crashed $18 1/2 to $27 3/8 after an inventory correction at one of its major customers, LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %>, which according to the company "cut revenue about $2.5 million in the third quarter."
Hardware and software simulation systems company IKOS SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IKOS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IKOS)") end if %> slid $2 9/16 to $10 on announcing a shortfall in expected fourth quarter revenues and EPS. Earnings will come in at the $0.05 per share level before charges -- more than 75% below the mean First Call estimate... Maternity wear retailer MOTHERS WORK <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MWRK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MWRK)") end if %> said today that it expects to report a fourth quarter loss of between $0.35 and $0.45 a share, slamming shares $2 5/8 to $10 5/8... Materials handling equipment and electronics manufacturer REPTRON ELECTRONICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: REPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: REPT)") end if %> was taken down $3 3/16 to $15 1/8 after the company pre-announced Q3 EPS of $0.23 to $0.25, below the mean estimate of $0.40... Statistical software supplier SPSS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SPSS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SPSS)") end if %> fell $4 1/2 to $24 1/4 after completing the purchase of Quantime Ltd., a supplier of software and services to the marketing research industry.
ALPINE LACE BRANDS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LACE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LACE)") end if %> lost $1 11/32 to $8 21/32 after the maker of reduced fat cheeses announced an agreement to be acquired by dairy products company Land O'Lakes for $9 1/8 per share... Programmable logic solutions company ACTEL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACTL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACTL)") end if %> fell $2 1/4 to $17 after announcing that its third quarter revenues declined sequentially by approximately 6%... UBS Securities cut its rating on shares of enterprise customer care systems company SCOPUS TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCOP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCOP)") end if %> to "hold" from "strong buy" based on deteriorating confidence in management, which slammed shares $1 9/16 to $14 5/16... ENVIRODYNE INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EDYN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EDYN)") end if %> fell $13/16 to $7 9/16 after a U.S. federal judge set aside a $102 million jury award against Pechiney SA's American National Can subsidiary in a patent suit filed by Viskase Corp, a unit of Envirodyne... Ethernet network adapter supplier STANDARD MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SMSC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SMSC)") end if %> slipped $1 9/16 to $15 5/8 after reporting a 2Q loss of $0.14 per share... BOSTON LIFE SCIENCES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BLSI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BLSI)") end if %> collapsed $4 1/4 to $2 15/16 after reporting unsuccessful results in the Phase III trial of its rheumatoid arthritis treatment.
FOOL ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion by Jim Surowiecki
ITT Management Has Reservations About Hilton
One of the year's sharpest and most convoluted corporate battles took yet another curious turn Monday when Judge Philip Pro of the U.S. District Court in Nevada ruled that ITT CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ITT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ITT)") end if %> could not split itself into three different companies without holding a special shareholder meeting. ITT had hoped to spin off its hotel and casino business into a separate company called ITT Destinations, while simultaneously divesting itself of the 80% of ITT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ESI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ESI)") end if %> that it currently owns in order to head off an attempted takeover by HILTON HOTELS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HLT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HLT)") end if %>. Improbably, what would have remained of the original ITT would have been its global telephone directory business, renamed ITT World Directories.
The original Hilton bid on January 27 threw ITT Chairman Rand Araskog into a series of defensive maneuvers more reminiscent of the 1980s than the 1990s, when corporate raiders routinely preyed upon unwilling partners. Management of ITT refused to talk with Hilton CEO Steve Bollenbach, and ITT quickly divested itself of $1.5 billion in assets in an effort to make itself less attractive to Hilton. Hilton's response to all of this was to sweeten its $55 offer to $70 a share, which is north of ITT's all-time high and nearly 80% above where the stock was trading when Hilton first announced its intentions. ITT was unfazed by this and in response produced a breakup plan that would almost certainly thwart any takeover attempt, as acquiring ITT Destinations would suddenly entail taking on a $1.4 billion tax liability.
All of this news unsurprisingly has driven shares of ITT up sharply, as arbitrageurs pile on in anticipation of either a successful Hilton bid or the entry of other players into the field. Hilton shares were also up, suggesting that the court's decision was seen as good news for Bollenbach and Company, which has grown Hilton through acquisitions since Bollenbach took over. Should ITT fail to find some mechanism to defeat Hilton's plan, the hostile $70 bid could easily be passed by shareholders eager to lock-in their substantial gains over the past few months. Given their resistance over the past few months, it is unlikely that ITT management is going to throw in the towel -- particularly since a successful Hilton bid at this point would put them into the ranks of the unemployed.
The breakup plan could still be approved by shareholders if ITT does decide to call a special meeting. The company took immediate steps following the court decision to appeal to shareholders, eliminating a plan to stagger the election of the board of directors of ITT Destinations and extending until October 6 its own $70-a-share buyback offer. Although those staggered elections would have made it harder for Hilton to install directors favorable to its plan, it also makes it harder for shareholders to clean house and was not very popular with that key constituency. Hilton has similarly extended its tender offer, but up to now it has only gotten 6.5 million shares of ITT's 122.7 million outstanding.
Investors are divided about how fair Hilton's offer really is. ITT insists that $70 per share is a lowball offer and that the company's collection of assets makes it worth well over $80 a share, particularly to Hilton. As ITT controls Caesar's World and Sheraton, Hilton would own four of the twelve largest casinos in Las Vegas and three of the nine largest in Atlantic City if the deal were to go through. ITT currently trades at 2.5 times book value and carries a P/E of just 19, both of which are considerably lower than the ratios for Hilton and competitors like DOUBLETREE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TREE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TREE)") end if %> and MARRIOTT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MAR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MAR)") end if %>. However, given that ITT is saddled with $3.9 billion in debt and a somewhat motley assemblage of businesses, $70 might be a fair price.
In resisting the Hilton offer, ITT is bucking a fundamental trend in the hotel and casino industry, which has recently seen a deluge of acquisitions. Last year, Hilton bought Bally's for $3 billion. More recently, Marriott shelled out $1 billion for Renaissance Hotels, and Doubletree bought Red Lion for $1.2 billion before agreeing to a merger with PROMUS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PRH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PRH)") end if %>, which owns Embassy Suites. Like so many other American industries, the hotel and lodging business is becoming increasingly dominated by a small number of players, and the same seems to be true of the gaming industry, where slackening demand is placing a premium on market share and name brands.
At $55 a share, Araskog was surely right to insist that the interests of ITT's shareholders were not going to be served by a Hilton takeover. That conclusion is harder to reach as the price escalates -- the difference between fair value and the Hilton offer diminishes and it becomes more apparent Araskog wants some job security. It's far from clear that even if ITT were to escape Hilton's clutches, the very act of hollowing itself out to make itself less attractive to Hilton would not hurt ITT shareholders even more. The way out of this dilemma seems to be calling that shareholder meeting and letting the people who really should decide cast a vote on what the future for ITT should be.
CANANDAIGUA BRANDS, INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CBRNA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CBRNA)") end if %>
(800) 964-3296 -- replay through 10/2
THE FINISH LINE, INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FINL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FINL)") end if %>
(800) 839-8273 -- replay through 10/2
THIS WEEK'S CONFERENCE CALL SYNOPSES
3COM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") end if %> Call
MICRON ELECTRONICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MUEI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MUEI)") end if %> Call
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