HEROES
The acquisition of a $45 million stake in Belgian speech technology firm
LERNOUT & HAUSPIE SPEECH PRODUCTS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LHSPF)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LHSPF)") end if %> by MICROSOFT
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> helped move the shares of the young Belgian company $8
higher to $39 7/8. "Microsoft believes its technology is ready for commercial
application," said an analyst quoted by Reuters. This is quite a change
for CEO Gaston Bastiaens, who presided over the decline in the shares of
browser and utility software company QUARTERDECK <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QDEK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QDEK)") end if %>. This
time, noting the support of the world's largest maker of operating system
software, L&H investors are cheering Bastiaens, who will have pulled
off quite a coup if the company's software becomes a part of the Windows
operating system.
Bedding manufacturer PILLOWTEX CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PTX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PTX)") end if %> fluffed up $4 1/2
to $28 1/4 after agreeing to acquire FIELDCREST CANNON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FLD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FLD)") end if %>
for a combination of cash and Pillowtex stock in a transaction valued in
excess of $700 million, including the refinancing of about $200 million in
Fieldcrest debt. The deal will be mostly a cash deal, with $27 per share
in cash paid for each share of Fieldcrest, plus up to one share of Pillowtex
for each three shares of Fieldcrest common shares held. Since Fieldcrest
shares had been rising on improved earnings and expectations of a takeover,
there was no premium to last night's closing price in the merger offer, but
Pillowtex did price its deal at a 55% premium to Fieldcrest's average trading
price over the last 90 trading days.
QUICK TAKES: Owner and operator of Black Entertainment Television,
BET HOLDINGS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BTV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BTV)") end if %>, rose $10 1/2 to $51 1/2 after announcing
a $48 per share cash buyout offer from its founder and present CEO Robert
L. Johnson along with LIBERTY MEDIA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LBTYA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LBTYA)") end if %>...
Smith Barney started coverage of steel producer
ACME METALS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMI)") end if %> with a "buy" rating, pushing shares up $1
3/4 to $16 9/16... CEL-SCI CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: HIV)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: HIV)") end if %>, a developer of products
to treat immune system diseases, a got a $3/8 boost to $5 on news that it
started a clinical trial of its immune boosting drug Multikine for patients
with mouth cancer who are scheduled for surgery or radiation... Developer
of specialty chemicals for the electronics industry LEARONAL INC.
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LRI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LRI)") end if %> rose $ 1 7/16 to $24 1/16 after receiving a "buy" recommendation
from Janney Montgomery.
Home builder CONTINENTAL HOMES HOLDING <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CON)") end if %> gained $1 1/2 to
$26 1/8 on the strength of a Salomon Brothers upgrade to "buy" from "hold"...
Oil and gas service company UTI ENERGY CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: UTI)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: UTI)") end if %> boomed $3
1/2 to $32 1/2 today after announcing that it acquired J.S.M. & Associates,
Inc. a privately owned, Odessa, Texas-based drilling company for approximately
$13.4 million in UTI common stock and $2.6 million in cash... Microwave component
maker ALPHA INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: AHA)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: AHA)") end if %> rose $1 9/16 to $15 1/16 after
reiterating its expectation that orders, sales, and profits would increase
each quarter for the rest of the fiscal year... Biopharmaceutical company
SCIOS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCIO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCIO)") end if %> shot $1 11/16 higher to $8 15/16 after an
announcement yesterday that it had achieved positive Phase III clinical results
from its study of NATRECOR BNP for the treatment of acute congestive heart
failure.
Another biopharmaceutical products manufacturer, IMMUNEX CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IMNX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IMNX)") end if %>, rose $ 12 3/8 to $55 7/8 on news that a Phase III study for Enbrel
confirmed the drug's effectiveness for treating rheumatoid arthritis...
CORPORATE EXPRESS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CEXP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CEXP)") end if %> and custom business forms maker DATA
DOCUMENTS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DDII)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DDII)") end if %> signed a definitive agreement for Corporate
to acquire Data through a stock swap valued at about $195 million, moving
shares of Data Documents $4 to $18 7/8... CIMA LABS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CIMA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CIMA)") end if %>
gained $1 3/8 to $6 5/8 after the developer of oral drug delivery technology
signed an exclusive development and license option agreement with ZENECA
GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ZEN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ZEN)") end if %> to make a fast dissolve formulation of one of Zeneca's
currently marketed prescription products... Shares of SEPRACOR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEPR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEPR)") end if %> gained $3 1/16 to $28 1/4, after the company, which develops patented
forms of existing pharmaceuticals, received a "strong buy'' rating from Morgan
Stanley... G-III APPAREL GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GIII)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GIII)") end if %> suited up for a gain
of $9/16 to $6 after reporting 2Q EPS of $0.35.
GOATS
Wireless telecom infrastructure builder SPECIALTY TELECONSTRUCTORS
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCTR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCTR)") end if %> dropped $2 7/8 to $16 1/4 after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.24
-- beating the single analyst's estimate of $0.14. The company only released
annual numbers and failed to mention any quarterly gains. Chief Executive
Michael Budagher advised that business did slow in the last part of Q4 and
has continued to be slow in Q1. Specialty Teleconstructors earned $0.12 per
share in its seasonally busy fourth quarter last year.
CORNING INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GLW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GLW)") end if %> lost $5 7/16 to $41 15/16 on confirming earlier
reports that revenue growth for its fiber optic cable business will be lower
than expected. The company believes the business will still grow 20% in the
third quarter, but expects 1997 EPS of as low as $1.89 -- much lower than
the average estimate of $2.04. Recent growth in its fiber optic business
has been about 30% per year, so while the current slowdown is substantial,
it is not crippling for Corning. Earlier this week, Corning's hometown
newspaper, The Leader, repeated whisperings that demand for fiber
optic products was "as little as half the demand Corning predicted for 1997."
Following an earnings warning from teleservices competitor APAC TELESERVICES
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APAC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APAC)") end if %>, TELETECH HOLDINGS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TTEC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TTEC)") end if %> announced yesterday
that it expects to report Q3 EPS of $0.07, 36% below the nine analyst mean
estimate of $0.11. The company said the labor strike at "significant" client
(who happen to wear brown uniforms and drive brown trucks) and lower call
volumes from a large telecom client (uh, AT&T?) have hurt Q3 results.
Smith Barney and BT Alex. Brown lowered ratings on the company -- Smith Barney
went to "neutral" from "buy," and BT Alex. Brown dropped it to "market perform"
from "buy." TeleTech shares were off $1 3/8 to $13 9/16 on the day.
Credit card issuer ADVANTA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADVNA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADVNA)") end if %> fell $4 to $28 1/2 as the FDIC today reported record banking profits in the second quarter that were accompanied by record credit losses in credit card lending. This is surely not news to Advanta investors. The credit card issuer, best known for products such as affinity cards, took a large loss earlier this year after increasing its credit loss reserves. Advanta now has the highest credit loss reserves of the pure-play credit card issuers at 4.8% of loans and receivables on the balance sheet. In contrast, MBNA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KRB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KRB)") end if %> has reserves equal to 2.3% of loans and receivables and CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: COF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: COF)") end if %> has a reserve ratio of 3.3% of assets. Advanta now trades at a 75% discount to MBNA's price-to-net loans ratio.
QUICK CUTS: PC graphics accelerator maker ACCELGRAPHICS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACCL)") end if %> fell $1 21/32 to $5 31/32 after pre-announcing a sequential revenue decline of up to 45% and a Q3 loss of $0.06 to $0.09 per share, compared with EPS estimates of $0.05... MATRIX PHARMACEUTICAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MATX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MATX)") end if %> plunged $2 to $4 7/8 after the company failed in a second attempt to receive FDA approval for its AccuSite gel for genital warts. The company said it will halt development of the drug to focus on its cancer products... Data processing company SANDATA INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SAND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SAND)") end if %> lost $1 to $8 1/4 as investors were apparently unhappy with the company's earnings performance... Former IBM printer unit LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") end if %> fell $2 1/8 to $32 1/8 on no news other than Merrill Lynch's new analyst rating the company a "near-" and "long-term accumulate"... Networking products manufacturer INTERPHASE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INPH)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INPH)") end if %> fell $1 1/16 to $9 7/16 on announcing that it expects Q3 revenues to be hurt by shortages of fast ethernet and FDDI network interface cards... Publisher and printer BOWNE & CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: BNE)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: BNE)") end if %> fell $1 9/16 to $31 5/8 on reporting Q3 net income per share of $0.78, beating the single estimate of $0.58... CHART INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CTI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CTI)") end if %> dipped $1 1/8 to $19 15/16 after the manufacturer of cryogenic equipment said it is registering to sell 2.8 million shares of common stock, 1.3 million of which are being sold by the company, expanding its share count by just under 10%...MOTOROLA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") end if %> fell $8 3/8 to $66 in after-hours trading after the telecommunications equipment and semiconductor company warned that third quarter earnings will be "significantly" below analysts' estimates.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion by Randy
Befumo
The Dollar Machine, Part I
A knock comes at your front door. Peeking through the eyehole, you see that
it is that inventor friend of yours, Bosco. You know, the wild-haired Bohemian
from next door who always seems to have just spilled something on his polyester
dress shirt. Quickly you consider the possible excuses you can use to avoid
speaking to him, lest he try to sell you another combination rat catcher-door
stop. Grandmother in the hospital? Used that last week. Overwhelming sense
of ennui and existential angst? Used that the week before. Your reverie is
jarred by another series of fevered raps on the door, and against your better
judgment you decide to let him in before he hurts his hand -- like last
week.
"Hey, glad to see you're home. Got a minute?" The excitement is literally
beading on his words. The whites of his eyes are slightly more prominent
than usual.
"Ummmm, sure," you mutter, unable to find an available excuse. For a moment,
you fear that you may have exhausted your lifetime supply of excuses, a state
guaranteed to make the rest of your life unbearable.
"Great! This will only take a minute." Bosco takes a dull metal object roughly
the size of a deck of cards out of his pocket and sets it on the coffee table.
A bright red button adorns the center. Obviously proud, Bosco puts his hands
on his hips and beams at you.
"So, what do you think?"
"What is it?" you ask.
"Oh, yes, of course... I forgot to tell you what it does." Bosco hunkers
over the device like a platoon leader diving on a live hand grenade. He presses
the red button and then he quickly steps away, possibly to ensure that you
can see what is going to happen. Just in case, though, you step behind the
living room chair and duck.
You hear a grinding sound followed by the scraping sound of paper against
wood. A few minutes pass without any kind of explosion and you look up. A
crisp dollar bill now sits on the coffee table beside the bizarre device.
"You see, a dollar-making machine!" Bosco thrusts his hands triumphantly
toward the device. "Once every year, you can just press the red button and
a new dollar bill will spit out!"
"Once a year?"
"Yeah, once a year for ten years. It takes a while for it to pull the necessary
particles from the air and rearrange the molecular structure to make the
dollar." Bosco adjusts his taped, horned-rim glasses and continues. "You
see, the nuclear furnace in there can only work so fast... but the good news
is it never runs out of power."
At the first mention of the word nuclear, you back up. Desperately, you wish
you had come up with some kind of excuse to be somewhere else.
"So what do you think I should sell it for? How much would people pay for
a dollar machine?" Bosco's question goes unanswered as you dive behind the
chair, hoping any stray radiation does not get through the La-Z-Boy.
~~~~~~~
Setting aside for a moment the question of whether the nuclear dollar machine
is a development that is at odds with environment sanity, the question of
how much Bosco's device would be worth is one of paramount importance to
stock investors. Come again? Well, let's walk through the question of how
to value the dollar machine and then we can examine the possible parallels
to valuing stock.
We know Bosco's dollar-making machine will spit out a dollar each year for
ten years. Obviously this caps the highest possible value for the device
at $10, since that is all of the money that we are going to get out of it.
Now, for a stream of cash payments that will add up to $10 over the next
10 years, what do you think people should pay? $9? That would be a dollar
less than the amount of money you will receive, allowing you to lock in a
$1 profit.
While certainly at $9 you would get a one-dollar profit on your money, that
profit would only come in the tenth year. Now, if you invest $9 to get $10
over the next ten years, you will get an 11.1% return ($10 divided by $9)
over that time period. Now, 11.1% over ten years might look nice at first
glance, but if we determine what this will be on an annual basis (1.111 to
the 0.1 power), we discover that it amounts to only 1.0% a year. Heck, passbook
savings accounts beat that.
Passbook savings accounts? Yes, passbook savings accounts. One of the key
things we have to consider when valuing our dollar machine is not just the
absolute return, but the other places we could invest that same money and
what kinds of returns we could expect from those places. Given that savings
accounts are insured by the FDIC and the average interest rate in the U.S.
now hovers close to 2.5%, if someone tried to sell you the dollar machine
for $9 you would have to turn them down and put the money in a passbook savings
account instead.
So how much should we pay for that dollar-making machine? The first thing
we have to do is quantify what we could earn on that same investment in other
vehicles. Let's assume here that there is a warranty on the dollar machine,
guaranteeing that it will spit out the dollar or you get your money back.
What other investments could you make that are guaranteed? Savings accounts,
certificates of deposits, and bonds immediately come to mind. Given that
you could get around 6% annual return on your money in a CD or bond over
ten years, you would have to beat 6% or the dollar machine would be worthless
to you.
How much money invested in a 6% bond today would become $10 in ten years?
Given that you would have a compound return of 79% over ten years at 6% (1.06
to the 10th power), you can figure out that $5.59 in today's dollars will
be $10 in ten years at 6% ($10 divided by 1.79). Because you know what your
risk-free rate of return is, you can figure out what price to pay in today's
dollars for earnings that you will receive tomorrow. So, unless you can get
that dollar machine for less than $5.59, it is not even worth considering.
In order to value the dollar-making machine, we have taken the stream of
income it would generate and calculated the net present value of that income
stream, assuming what rate of return we could earn on that money elsewhere.
Had we demanded 10.6% annual return from the dollar machine (the historical
return of the S&P 500), the dollar machine would only be worth $3.65
($10 divided by 2.74, which is 1.106 to the 10th power). Demanding higher
rates of return makes the dollar machine worth less and less in terms of
today's dollars relative to the future value of those dollars.
How does this all relate to investing? We take up that topic tomorrow in
the action-packed conclusion of "The Dollar Machine."
CONFERENCE CALLS
HEWLETT-PACKARD <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") end if %>
Announcement of Business Strategy
(800) 839-1949 -- replay through 9/11
PIER 1 IMPORTS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PIR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PIR)") end if %>
(888) 243-0810 (reservation # 527406) -- replay through 9/12 @ 11:00 am EDT
THIS WEEK'S CONFERENCE CALL SYNOPSES
AOL/COMPUSERVE Call
WE
DELIVER - Get The Evening News delivered
to your e-mailbox every evening!
SO YOU'VE READ THE
EVENING NEWS
...WANNA HEAR IT?
Every day, News writers Dale Wettlaufer and Randy Befumo engage in an impromptu discussion about the stories they find most compelling from the day's news, adding color, fresh commentary and the occasional wisecrack for your listening enjoyment. Check it all out in the Motley Fool's Evening Report on RealAudio, produced by partner Westwind Studios and sponsored by Mapquest.
Randy Befumo (TMF Templr), a Fool
Fool On The Hill
Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), another
Fool
Heros & Goats
Brian Bauer (TMF Hoops), and yet
another Fool
Editing