HEROES
Personal care products company BEAUTICONTROL COSMETICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BUTI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BUTI)") end if %>
jumped $1 1/2 to $12 1/2 after appearing in Barron's "Sizing Up Small
Caps" feature, which pointed out the company's double-digit return on assets
last year and its below-market earnings multiple. Automotive parts manufacturer
UNIVERSAL MANUFACTURING <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UFMG)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UFMG)") end if %> was also mentioned in the same
article, sending the shares $3 1/8 higher to $17 1/4.
Industrial and farm equipment manufacturer CORE INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CRI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CRI)") end if %> jumped $3 1/2 to $23 1/4 after reporting record earnings and announcing
that it is looking to sell the company. Shareholders couldn't design a better
day for themselves. Q3 earnings per share of $0.44 increased 29% year-over-year
and beat estimates of $0.40 while revenues were up 21%. The company didn't
identify the third parties with which it has held merger discussions. A company
acquiring Core would have a number of strategic options open to it, including
selling off some of the slower-growth (but nonetheless profitable) companies
or keeping on the management team and strategy at Core, which has grown earnings
86% per year over the last five years.
QUICK TAKES: QUICKTURN DESIGN SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QKTN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QKTN)") end if %> gained $2 7/8 to $15 7/8 after the semiconductor design software company announced an alliance with SYNOPSYS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SNPS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SNPS)") end if %> under which Quickturn will acquire Synopsys "emulation" software... KVH INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KVHI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KVHI)") end if %> rose $1 1/8 to $9 in anticipation of the release of a global positioning satellite-enabled phone... MCLEODUSA INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCLD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCLD)") end if %> rose $4 3/8 to $28 7/8 after the local and long-distance phone carrier agreed to merge with Consolidated Communications, beefing up McLeodUSA's number of local lines and its fiber backbone network... Information technologies consultants COMPLETE BUSINESS SOLUTIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CBSL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CBSL)") end if %> added $2 7/8 to $25 3/4 on word that it has won a contract with SCANA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SCG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SCG)") end if %> to provide that company's South Carolina Gas & Electric unit with Year 2000 conversion services... Lingerie company FREDERICK'S OF HOLLYWOOD <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FOH.B)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FOH.B)") end if %> gained $1 3/16 to $5 15/16 after agreeing to be acquired by a private investment group for $6.14 per share in cash... Brokerage firm ADVEST GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ADV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ADV)") end if %> gained another $2 3/4 to $26 after the Wall Street Journal said today that the company has been approached by FLEET FINANCIAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FLT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FLT)") end if %> about the possibility of a combination... Specialty chemicals company INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IFF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IFF)") end if %> moved up $2 7/8 to $50 after Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette raised its rating on the company to "buy" from "market perform"... REFAC TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: REF)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: REF)") end if %> jumped $2 to $9 after a newsletter said the company "holds licenses for very important technology patents, including e-mail, the cure for ulcers and compression technology for most modems made in the U.S.," according to Dow Jones... GENOVESE DRUG STORES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: GDX.A)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: GDX.A)") end if %> climbed $1 1/4 to $19 3/8 after the company raised its dividend 14%... PC card maker XIRCOM INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XIRC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XIRC)") end if %> gained $1 7/16 to $12 7/16 after announcing a $99 56 Kbps modem upgrade program.
GOATS
Italian athletic shoes and apparel company FILA HOLDINGS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FLH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FLH)") end if %>
tripped $4 1/2 to $32 7/8 after the company announced on Friday that it expects
revenues for the second quarter to come in below expectations and that it
sees EPS of $0.53 to $0.60, below the mean First Call estimate of $0.88.
The company blamed a weak U.S. market and said that margins were pressured
by both an increase in programmed sales, general & administrative expenses
as well as increased costs associated with warehouse and software problems.
Blaming a revenue shortfall on industry-wide factors is often a good fallback
position, but it always leaves one wondering if it's really an execution
problem for that particular company, especially when it has disappointed
in prior quarters.
The number three U.K. bank, NATIONAL WESTMINSTER BANK <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NW)") end if %>,
dropped $4 5/8 to $74 after the company pre-announced worse-than-expected
first half profits of 700 million pounds sterling versus estimates of 900
million pounds due to losses from the mispricing of options. On a run-rate
basis, that works out to 4.744 pounds sterling per share, or $7.76 per American
Depository Receipt. To U.S. investors, a bank P/E ratio of less than 10 times
is rather attractive, especially with a dividend yield of 4.3%. With a strong
market presence across a number of banking and financial services in the
U.K., investors wonder whether this stumble will hasten the move to merge
with another company such as Abbey National PLC, with which National Westminster
has conducted talks.
QUICK CUTS: Point of sale systems company CHECKMATE ELECTRONICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CMEL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CMEL)") end if %> tumbled $1 3/4 to $8 1/4 after the company said it doesn't know if it will break even this quarter, a far cry from the $0.23 per share mean analysts' estimate... EDUCATIONAL MEDICAL INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EDMD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EDMD)") end if %> lost $1 9/16 to $7 3/4 after Montgomery Securities downgraded the for-profit post-secondary education company to "hold" from "buy" after the company reported Q4 pro-forma EPS of $0.10 last Thursday... HIGHWAYMASTER COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HWYM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HWYM)") end if %> dropped $1 1/4 to $14 as Barron's pointed out that this wireless freight tracking company is valued at $390 million, has no earnings, and "faces stiff competition"... BRITISH STEEL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BST)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BST)") end if %> lost $1 3/8 to $26 5/8 after reporting year-end earnings of $2.49 per U.S. share, in line or better than analyst expectations. That's down 60% from last year, though the company says it's cautiously optimistic about the coming year... RAYMOND CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAYM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAYM)") end if %> lost $2 3/8 to $32 3/4 after the maker of industrial equipment agreed to be acquired by BT Industries of Sweden for $33 per share in cash.
FOOL ON THE
HILL
An Investment Opinion by Randy
Befumo
Return on Equity, Part 4
Say that your profit margin is ebbing and your asset turnover just ain't
what it used to be. Knowing that you and your fellow managers at TEMPLAR'S
TREEHOUSES [Nasdaq: TREES] are going to be compensated based on the return
on equity (ROE) that your company is generating, how can you juice it up?
Leverage, mah boy, leverage. A few hundred million dollars in long-term debt
to add some working capital to your balance sheet and suddenly asset turnover
doesn't appear to be a problem anymore. That capital also lets you expand
your operations, pumping out more product at the lower profit margin to increase
the raw earnings based on the same shareholder's equity. Leverage is the
answer -- heck, for many, leverage is the American way.
For the last few days, we have been exploring return on equity as a potential
lens through which we can analyze a business. On
Wednesday
we discussed the return on equity equation and how you can actually look
at it as three component parts -- profit margin, asset management, and leverage.
Thursday
we discussed profit margin and her two sisters, gross margin and operating
margin. Since ROE is simply earnings over equity,
if you increase the profit margin, you increase earnings. Increasing earnings
without increasing equity has a domino-like effect on ROE, increasing that
as well.
Friday
there was a discussion of asset management and how increased utilization
of business assets can leave more cash for the earnings pile, pumping up
return on equity. Today we focus on the third leg of the ROE tripod, namely
leverage -- a fancy schmancy word for debt.
A lot of people want you to believe that debt is no good. Most of those people
apparently buy their homes with cash. For the rest of the world, debt is
much like anything else -- okay in moderation, but overdoing it is not a
good idea. As anyone who has ever had a high credit card balance can attest,
debt tends to feed on itself, growing to enormous proportions with very little
food and watering. When a company takes on debt, it increases the total amount
of capital it has at its disposal to finance whatever it is it wanted to
finance in the first place. Unlike equity, debt carries a direct cost called
"interest" that eats away at a business's profitability. Sure, if you take
on $500 million in debt you can suddenly produce 1,200 more widgets a day.
However, your profit margins on the extra widgets plummet to 5% from 10%
because the interest on the debt costs you 5%, meaning that the additional
gain becomes incremental.
The problem with adding leverage to a company's equity as a way to boost
ROE is that after a certain point, the actual cost of the debt diminishes
profit margins and decreases asset turns. Although certainly there are a
number of cases where adding debt makes sense, it is not something that
management wants to push as high as possible, unlike profit margins and asset
turns. In fact, many perceive earnings generated from debt financing as higher
risk than earnings generated from equity financing, particularly if the business
is tied to the business cycle in any way, shape or form. Whereas a company
that is completely equity financed can normally ride out a downturn, a company
with a large proportion of debt financing is unfortunately not quite so well
equipped.
Although this flies in the face Modigliani and Miller's Nobel-prize winning
M&M theorem that states that the market value of any firm is independent
of its capital structure, experientially it appears to me that investors
pay less for debt-financed earnings. There are a number of potential explanations
for this, the most apparent being that because debt-financing increases the
risk that the company would be injured in a cyclical downturn, that risk
is discounted into the price investors are willing to pay for future earnings.
Put a bit more clearly, because the debt increases the likelihood of bankruptcy,
investors are more cautious about the price they will pay for the stock.
This alone would be sufficient to keep managers from maximizing leverage
to increase the ROE, as it would have the unintended side effect of minimizing
the stock price.
There are almost as many ways to assess how much long-term debt a company
has than there are mutual funds, but the five most common include the
debt-to-assets ratio, the debt-to-equity ratio, the debt-to-total capital
ratio, the debt-to-market capitalization ratio, and the debt-to-revenues
ratio. All of these ratios simply compare the amount of total liabilities
to some other relevant part of the income statement or the balance sheet.
In order of the five ratios described, they are total assets, shareholder's
equity, shareholder's equity plus long-term debt (total capital), market
capitalization, and trailing twelve-month revenues. Although at this point
most investors thirst for some general rule such as "debt should not be more
than 20% of shareholder's equity," the reality is that general rules are
just that, very general. There are all kinds of reasons why a company might
want to violate a general rule and little to recommend them, other than the
fact that companies that abide by general rules tend to go out of business
a little less often.
The best way to analyze debt is to look at the historical trend in debt financing
compared to the trend in ROE to see whether or not a company is maintaining
its ROE by juicing up the debt. This is one of the key signs of a business
model gone askew, as the company replaces rising profit margins and increased
asset efficiency with more and more debt to maintain the same level of
shareholder return. An important addition to this is to check whether or
not the company can afford the debt. Comparing the earnings before interest
and taxes (EBIT) to the actual interest expense gives you the times interest
earned ratio. You take the EBIT instead of just earnings because interest
is not taxable, and if you leave in the interest payment, you have already
covered it once.
Earnings before interest and taxes
Times interest earned = ---------------------------------------------------
Interest expense
This ratio literally tells you how many times a company could have paid the
interest on the annual debt burden. Again, although there is nothing really
to recommend pronouncing some kind of general rule like "interest should
always be covered 10 times," the higher this number, the better the company
can handle its interest burden. Should the number start to drift down, unless
the company has ready access to cash on the balance sheet or unused borrowing
capacity, the risk part of the pricing equation starts to get larger, driving
down the stock price. The basic business the company is involved in also
has an effect, as companies where earnings are highly cyclical or volatile
would want to have higher interest coverage than the average bear.
With a better understanding of profit margin, asset management, and leverage,
tomorrow we will try to put it all together in a way that allows us to use
this rubric to analyze a specific company. We also will cover the weaknesses
of return on equity, suggesting possible alternatives like return on invested
capital (ROIC) or return on operating earnings (ROO) as potential substitutes.
CONFERENCE CALLS
MICRON TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MU)") end if %>
(402) 220-1003 -- replay
After 8:00 p.m. EDT
COMPUTER ASSOCIATES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CA)") end if %>
(Journalist Briefing of New OpenIngres Release)
(888) 243-0816 -- replay from 1:30 p.m. EDT through 6:00 p.m. EDT on 6/17
(703) 736-7255 -- replay number for international callers
06/17/97 (Tuesday)
ORACLE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") end if %>
(402) 220-4217 -- replay for 24 hours
06/18/97 (Wednesday)
ADOBE SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADBE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADBE)") end if %>
after 8:45 p.m. EDT for 3 days
(800) 633-8284 (reservation # 2805001)
06/19/97 (Thursday)
BRODERBUND SOFTWARE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BROD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BROD)") end if %>
(800) 642-1687 (ID#427430) -- replay available through 6/23
WE
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ANOTHER FOOLISH
THING
Dow Dividend Spreadsheet
Fooldom is all about interactivity and do-it-yourself investing, right? Right. What fits in better with such a tradition than the Dow Dividend Spreadsheet? Developed by our own industrious TMF Templr, this is a living, breathing spreadsheet -- one you can manipulate and tinker with. It offers returns and dividends for all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 36 years (1961 through 1996), as well as returns for all eight Dow Dividend Strategies -- year by year. This allows you to test out any hypothesis in your search for the ultimate investing approach. Construct what-if scenarios and test them. What if you only bought the 17th-highest-priced stock each year for 35 years? What if you bought all but the lowest-yielding stocks? What if... The spreadsheet, available at FoolMart, will be delivered to your e-mailbox electronically in your preferred format (Excel 4.0 or Excel 5.0+).
Randy Befumo (TMF Templr), a Fool
Fool Plate Special
Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), another
Fool
Ups & Downs
Brian Bauer (TMF Hoops), and yet
another Fool
Editing