The Motley Fool, 05/02/97: The Evening News

HEROES

QUANTUM CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QNTM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QNTM)") end if %> gained $3 1/16 to $45 13/16 after yesterday reporting Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.12, an eye-popping 30% above the consensus estimate, which is being well received by the rest of the industry. After reporting their quarterly earnings, both WESTERN DIGITAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WDC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WDC)") end if %> and SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SEG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SEG)") end if %> moved off their highs as investors worried that Quantum would try to gain market share in the sweet spot of the industry. That sweet spot is found in the 1.2 to 1.7 MB drives according to comments made by Seagate's CEO Al Shugart in its Q3 conference call, and severe price competition there would pull money out of the sector. Quantum reported a 3.3 percentage point sequential increase in gross margin in the quarter, indicating that there is more than enough demand to go around for now and that Quantum is not acting the part of the industry spoiler. All three of these companies made smart moves higher today.

JABIL CIRCUIT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: JBIL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: JBIL)") end if %> led the contract manufacturers higher today, moving up $5 9/16 to $53 5/8, and was by no means alone in the group. SANMINA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SANM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SANM)") end if %> rose $3 3/4 to $53 3/4; HADCO CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HDCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HDCO)") end if %> gained $3 3/8 to $48 3/8; and memory module and PC card manufacturer SMART MODULAR TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SMOD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SMOD)") end if %> added $1 3/8 to $35 5/8. Industry battlestation SOLECTRON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SLR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SLR)") end if %> also had a particularly strong week, moving up $8 1/8 to $59 1/2 from last Friday's close at $51 3/8. Over the last six months, the group has displayed an exceptionally tight correlation with the direction of the Nasdaq Composite index, according to Hambrecht & Quist's latest "View from the Channel" report on PC demand. This week was no exception, as the Nasdaq Composite and these companies' customers in the PC, networking, and communications industries were all up sharply.

Independent oil refiner and marketer TOSCO CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TOS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TOS)") end if %> gained $1 1/2 to $30 1/8 after completing a 22 million share offering of common stock for $28.50 apiece -- good timing at the lowest cost of capital level the company has seen over the last year. Tosco netted somewhere around $600 million in the offering, which it may use to pay down debt related to its acquisition of UNOCAL CORP.'s <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UCL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UCL)") end if %> West Coast refining operations and Union and 76 gas station brand names. A further softening in the oil market, where June futures fell two percent today, also helps, but that was also offset by a greater decline in unleaded gasoline contracts. The company's inventory and hedging picture should become more clear in its next quarterly filing.

NOVELLUS SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NVLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NVLS)") end if %> gained $6 7/8 to $69 3/8 as Reuters reported that the company may be near a settlement in an intellectual property dispute with APPLIED MATERIALS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") end if %>. Reuters also said that the company might be in talks to make an "earnings-accretive acquisition," which has many thinking "chemical mechanical planarization" (CMP). That would leave a trail of crumbs to LAM RESEARCH <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LRCX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LRCX)") end if %>, which surged $5 to $36 1/8, and merger partner and CMP company ONTRAK SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ONTK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ONTK)") end if %>, which gained $4 1/2 to $29 1/4. SPEEDFAM INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SFAM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SFAM)") end if %> also jumped $5 to $32 1/4 on the rumors.

QUICK TAKES: APPLIED DIGITAL ACCESS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADAX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADAX)") end if %> surged $1 3/8 to $5 3/8 after the data network test products company announced that MCI COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCIC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCIC)") end if %> has licensed its software... Supply chain and production management software company I2 TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ITWO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ITWO)") end if %> gained $4 1/4 to $44 after DELL COMPUTER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %> licensed I2's Rhythm software... Bomb detection equipment company BARRINGER TECHNOLOGIES INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BARR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BARR)") end if %> scored a $2 1/2 gain to $13 1/8 after announcing contracts with U.S. and European aviation agencies as well as the Kuala Lumpur airport... PICTURETEL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PCTL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PCTL)") end if %> gained $2 1/8 to $11 5/8 before the company announced after the close today that its CFO is retiring... Semiconductor etching equipment company TEGAL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TGAL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TGAL)") end if %> rose $1 3/8 to $7 5/8 after receiving an order from Korean chip giant LG Semicon... SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING MATERIALS CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEMX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEMX)") end if %> moved up $1 3/4 to $9 3/4 after the company yesterday announced a verical acquisition of S.T. Electronics Inc., which makes coaxial cable equipment... HCIA INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HCIA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HCIA)") end if %> rose $2 3/4 to $25 1/4 after the healthcare software company yesterday announced a strategic alliance with Bayer Corp., a large medical diagnostics company, to develop cost-savings programs in hospital and clinical settings... After presenting at the H&Q conference yesterday, RMH TELESERVICES INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RMHT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RMHT)") end if %> didn't make a move, but others in the industry certainly did, including APAC TELESERVICES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APAC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APAC)") end if %>, which gained $1 1/8 to $12 7/8 and SITEL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SWW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SWW)") end if %>, which today blasted $2 1/4 higher to $12 1/4... NATIONAL PROCESSING INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NAP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NAP)") end if %> rose $1 1/2 to $8 1/2 after financial services company NATIONAL CITY CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NCC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NCC)") end if %> announced it will up its stake in the transaction processing company... Customer management software company DENDRITE INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DRTE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DRTE)") end if %> climbed $1 7/8 to $10 1/2 on a Goldman Sachs upgrade to "market outperform" from "market perform"... INTERRA FINANCIAL INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IFI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IFI)") end if %>, parent of brokerage and investment bank Dain Bosworth, moved $4 higher to $40 1/2 after the company instituted a poison pill even though it said no one's trying to take over the company... Energy company UNITED MERIDIAN <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UMC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UMC)") end if %> rose $3 3/4 to $32 1/4 after yesterday commenting that it is planning to double its crude oil production in 1997, to 25,000 barrels a day... THERMEDICS DETECTION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: TDX)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: TDX)") end if %> gained $2 1/4 to $12 1/4 as the FAA was doing bomb detection equipment shopping today with a number of different vendors, Thermedics included.

GOATS

Following yesterday's slide, PAIRGAIN TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") end if %> dropped another $1 7/8 to $20 1/2 after the HDSL networking equipment company said it sees pricing becoming more competitive, which investors feared as accounts receivable days sales outstanding (DSO) had increased in the last quarter. DSO increased from an almost unbelievable 34 days in its fourth quarter to 45 days in the first quarter, closer to the industry norm but still very good. In this case, an increasing DSO may mean that order patterns are spreading out over the quarter as distributors have finally caught up with demand, the distribution channel fills out a little, and as multiple vendors offer HDSL. The stock's fall from $43 1/2 indicates to some investors that Pairgain's days of owning the high bit rate DSL market may be over, as other networkers figure this is where money is being made in digital subscriber line technology.

PETSMART INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PETM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PETM)") end if %> was neutered for a $3 13/16 loss to $12 1/8 after Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette removed the company's stock from its "recommended list," as some observers believe same-store sales growth in May was below 9%, which would fall below 1996's same-store sales growth of 11.9%. As the category-killer pet superstore has matured, growth has tapered off from blistering same-store sales growth numbers in the 19% range in fiscal years 1993 through 1995. If the company can return to the days when it was gaining leverage over its growth, i.e., growing the revenues per store more rapidly than operating expenses per store, then it might not be scraping bottom. If peripheral operations like catalog sales bloat operating expenses or if the business model is still built for faster growth and sales don't match that growth, earnings forecast reductions shouldn't be a surprise.

QUICK CUTS: Internet magazine publisher and trade show company MECKLERMEDIA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MECK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MECK)") end if %> tumbled $6 7/8 to $19 1/4 after reporting Q2 revenue of $20.5 million and EPS of $0.40, hitting the mean estimate, but the company said it may incur operating losses in the near term if trade show volume drops off... CANNONDALE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BIKE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BIKE)") end if %> fell another $1 7/8 to $16 after reporting less-than-extreme revenue growth in its third quarter on Wednesday... Home medical equipment company INVACARE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IVCR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IVCR)") end if %> lost $2 to $18 1/8 after saying it expects a sales slowdown due to fiscal policy factors both in the U.S. and abroad, a slowdown with a major customer, and because of the strong U.S. dollar... Laboratory instruments and equipment maker FISHER SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FSH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FSH)") end if %> lost $5 3/8 to $36 3/4 on company comments that near-term revenue growth will not match historic levels because of "soft-demand in the clinical-laboratory market"... ENSCO INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") end if %> fell $2 5/8 to $42 7/8, capping off a poor week for the oil drillers and oil services industry... Oil and gas exploration and production company STONE ENERGY CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SGY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SGY)") end if %> fell $1 1/2 to $26 after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the company to "neutral" from "outperform" based on price... NORTH AMERICAN VACCINE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: NVX)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: NVX)") end if %> lost another $1 7/8 to $17 1/2 after yesterday reporting a loss of $0.38 per share in its first quarter.

FOOL ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion by Randy Befumo

Networking Zombies: Return from the Dead

Networking companies received a boost today from Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Bellace. Commenting on CISCO SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") end if %>, Bellace stated that the outlook for Cisco's new products like its Big Fast Router (BFR) and tag switching gear appeared "quite favorable." Even more surprising, Bellace went out on a limb regarding Cisco's third quarter estimates, stating that when the company reports next week it will notch in EPS of $0.53 to $0.54, compared to current consensus expectations of $0.52 per share.

Rumors have been rife in Silicon Valley for weeks now that Cisco would not make its third quarter numbers because of weakness in corporate demand in the quarter. At a recent investor's conference in Boston, newsletter author Michael Murphy went as far as to say his sources were telling him the San Jose-based networking giant could miss estimates by up to $0.15 per share. With all eyes focused on problems at 3COM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") end if %> after INTEL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> introduced two competitive products, investors were already prepared for the worst. Bellace's comments fly in the face of this looming negativity and represent the major positive stance on Cisco since the networking slaughter two weeks ago.

Bellace's comments today combined with positive vibes from the Hambrecht & Quist Technology Conference held this week have allowed networking stocks to enjoy a solid recovery from the lows of two weeks ago. Concerns about continued strong profit growth have been allayed by a growing body of information that suggests earnings remain intact. Bellace raised his 1997 estimates for Cisco Systems to $2.07 per share from $2.04, maintaining that 1998 earnings would fall somewhere between $2.65 and $2.75. These numbers put Cisco at roughly 21 times forward earnings, still toward the low end of its historic 18 to 30 range.

Not to be outdone, ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %> Chief Financial Officer Robert Dahl also hit the wires yesterday with an affirmation of the company's estimates for the current year. Dahl said Ascend would earn somewhere between $1.60 and $1.70 per share in fiscal 1997, well above the consensus estimates of $1.59 per share. Although sales of the new MAX TNT (The Next Thing) switch went sluggish in February, the company stated when it released its quarterly earnings last month that sales in March were robust and all indications are that this has continued. Backlog in the quarter grew sequentially and the company's book-to-bill ratio remained above 1:1, both supporting a strong growth environment going forward.

Ascend sees revenues of $950 to $975 million for the full fiscal year, up more than 70% over the prior year's total -- without counting the soon to be completed merger with ATM switch manufacturer CASCADE COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCC)") end if %>. With this merger diluting earnings for the combined company by roughly $0.05 to $0.10 per share according to statements made last quarter, this puts the earnings for the combined entity at somewhere between $1.50 and $1.65 per share for 1997. A multiple of 30, less than one-half the rate of growth, puts the stock at between $45 and $49 1/2 -- right where the market has magically decided to price Ascend in the past few days. The large gap between Ascend's valuation and the merger valuation of Cascade in Ascend stock has narrowed from as much as 10% to a more moderate 2%.

Written off for dead two weeks ago, networking stocks appear to be back among Wall Street's anointed this week -- on a trial basis. Although all of the doom and gloom from industry analysts two weeks ago seemed overdone, it was actually an e-mail from a reader on Apr. 23 complaining that networking stocks were getting too much coverage in this column that confirmed for me, at least, that people were way too negative. April 22nd's Intel versus 3Com cage match made many lose sight of the revolution remote access is having on the public networks, prompting April 23rd's "Remote Access Primer." However, with valuations for these stocks becoming much more rational in the past two weeks relative to their prospects, this reader can now sleep soundly knowing that this will probably be the last networking column for a little while. Small comfort when he could have initiated long-term positions in Cisco in the mid-$40s, 3Com in the mid-$20s, and Ascend in the low-$40s two weeks ago, but something nonetheless.

CONFERENCE CALLS

PEPSICO INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PEP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PEP)") end if %>
(800) 577-6980 (code: 03160)

THE MONEY STORE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MONE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MONE)") end if %>
(800) 964-4236

RAINFOREST CAFE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAIN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAIN)") end if %>
(402) 222-9939

MATTSON TECHNOLOGY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MTSN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MTSN)") end if %>
(402) 220-6969 -- replay available through 5/6

MORROW SNOWBOARDS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MRRW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MRRW)") end if %>
(402) 220-4250 -- replay through 5/6

US WEST MEDIA GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UMG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UMG)") end if %>
Replay available through 8PM ET on 5/2
(800) 839-5620
(719) 448-2012 (International callers)

SEAGRAM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: VO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: VO)") end if %>
1:00 PM EDT
(800) 558-5253 (reservation # 529689) -- replay available through 9PM
ET on 5/2

05/01/97 (Thursday)
RED ROOF INNS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RRI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RRI)") end if %>
From 1:00 PM EDT through 5:00 PM on 5/2
(800) 633-8284 (reservation # 2614549) -- replay

MENTOR GRAPHICS CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MENT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MENT)") end if %>
(201) 633-1010 -- replay

INSIGNIA FINANCIAL GROUP INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IFS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IFS)") end if %>
(800) 275-3210 -- replay through 5/2 beginning each hour on the hour

INFORMIX <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IFMX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IFMX)") end if %>
Available until 5/16
(800) 839-8790 -- replay

PREFERRED EMPLOYERS HOLDINGS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PEGI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PEGI)") end if %>
3:00 PM EDT
(800) 982-5946 (at the recording, dial 666606) -- live call

NETRIX CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NTRX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NTRX)") end if %>
4:00 p.m. EDT
(800) 772-6534 -- live call

ATC COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATCT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATCT)") end if %>
(303) 267-1037 (code 195584)
Replay available until Friday

THIS WEEK'S CONFERENCE CALL SYNOPSES

ATLAS AIR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATLS)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call
ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call
SUN MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") end if %> Q3 Conference Call
APPLE COMPUTER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") end if %> Q2 Conference Call
C-CUBE MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CUBE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CUBE)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call
INTEL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call
RAINFOREST CAFE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAIN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RAIN)") end if %> Conference Call
SPRINT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FON)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call
MOTOROLA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call
SILICON GRAPHICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SGI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SGI)") end if %> Q3 Conference Call
PRIME MEDICAL SERVICES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PMSI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PMSI)") end if %> Q1 Conference Call

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Randy Befumo (TMF Templr), a Fool
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Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), another Fool
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