HEROES
MEMTEC LTD. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MMTCY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MMTCY)") end if %> rose $3 1/4 to $22 1/2 after Deutsche Morgan Grenfell started coverage of the filtration industry. This industry covers companies that make filters and systems for everything from medical devices to purifying raw materials for pharmaceuticals. Memtec was started with a "buy" rating, as was MILLIPORE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MIL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MIL)") end if %>, which has recently branched out into making gas and liquids processing equipment for semiconducor fabs. PALL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PLL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PLL)") end if %>, which is still working on integrating its Gelman acquisition, was rated a "hold."
CITICORP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") end if %> gained $4 to $122 after Smith Barney analyst Henry Dickson raised his rating on the bank to "buy" from "outperform," setting a price target of $150. With strong earnings growth coming from credit card operations and continuing strong mortgage activity, the mean earnings estimate for 1998 is $9.60 per share That that $150 price target could be achieved should investors be willing to place the same value on its earnings then as they are now. With a strong presence in growth markets such as Asia, very encouraging Latin American developments, a continuation of the "goldilocks economy," and a strong grasp on operations, Citibank remains one of the favorite financial stocks in the world.
Furniture retailer and stealth consumer credit company HEILIG MEYERS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HMY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HMY)") end if %> gained $1 1/4 to $15 1/8 after announcing that it expects to beat Q4 earnings estimates of $0.15 per share. The company recently completed its acquisition of Rhodes Furniture stores, adding a different sort of consumer to its normal mix of stores, which follows the strategy pioneered by WAL-MART <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %> consumer genius, Sam Walton. The company also recently announced the acquisition of ten outlets of The RoomStore in Texas. Same-store sales, not including these acquisitions, staged an impressive comeback in January following the down month of December. Although the company is also a stealth consumer credit company, in that its credit operations are just as important as merchandise sales, it noted last night that "raw selling margins" on merchandise have improved.
QUICK TAKES: Industrial process equipment distributor TRANSMATION INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRNS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRNS)") end if %> gained $2 1/4 to $13 on announcing an agreement to acquire E.I.L. Instruments, Inc., for $22 million, increasing its revenues by almost 75%... AETRIUM INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATRM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATRM)") end if %> moved $3 higher to $16 on announcing $16 million in orders for its semiconductor test handlers... Cooperstown, N.Y.-based railroad DELAWARE OTSEGO CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DOCP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DOCP)") end if %> gained $2 1/8 to $15 1/2 as investors expect the company to benefit from the merger of CSX <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CSX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CSX)") end if %> and CONRAIL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CRR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CRR)") end if %>... CORRECTIONAL SERVICES CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCQ)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCQ)") end if %> gained $1 1/2 to $11 1/4 on announcing a smaller-than-expected Q4 loss of $0.26 per share... Managed healthcare company COVENTRY CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CVTY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CVTY)") end if %> rose $1 3/8 to $10 after Scott & Stringfellow added the shares to its "recommended list" yesterday... GLOBAL INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GLBL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GLBL)") end if %> was jacked up $2 1/2 to $20 3/4 after the oil services infrastructure company announced a $110 million acquisition of assets from Sub Sea International... Asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) access products company YURIE SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YURI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YURI)") end if %> gained $2 1/4 to $13 1/2 before reporting Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02 following the closing bell... U.S. AIRWAYS GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: U)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: U)") end if %> added $2 5/8 to $22 7/8 after yesterday's announcement that traffic was substantially higher in February... NATIONAL EDUCATION CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NEC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NEC)") end if %> gained $1 to $13 5/8 on signing a contract to provide continuing education programs to the IRS... On announcing Q4 EPS of $0.47, beating estimates of $0.44, DOLLAR GENERAL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DG)") end if %> rose $2 1/4 to $31... MEDTRONIC (NSYE: MDT) picked up $4 1/2 to $67 1/2 on receiving approval from European Union authorities to market a particular stent-graft for aortic aneurysms... Oil services provider NABORS INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: NBR)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: NBR)") end if %> added $1 3/8 to $17 5/8 after announcing the acquisition of 12 rigs from Chesley Pruet Drilling Co.
GOATS
Office supplies company CORPORATE EXPRESS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CEXP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CEXP)") end if %> fell $8 3/16 to $10 1/8 on volume of 47 million shares after indicating that it will miss earnings estimates of $0.50 per share for the year and $0.16 per share for the quarter by $0.05 to $0.07. The company said that it will reach revenues of $3.2 billion for the year, but that its acquisition of United TransNet, the second-largest same-day local delivery service in the country, is not progressing as smoothly as planned. At the time of the merger, the company said it anticipated "significant synergies... by allowing the company to consolidate certain operating facilities..." Although the revenue side is looking healthy at the moment, J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Husson said savings are not being realized. Michael Rosen of Blackford Securities commented, "The acquisition of some of the delivery businesses were not thought out as well as they should have been."
BRODERBUND SOFTWARE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BROD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BROD)") end if %> backslid $7 3/8 to $23 1/8 after announcing last night that it expects to report Q2 EPS of $0.15 to $0.20, missing estimates of $0.31. Even though the company continues to win Codie Awards, the software world's version of the Oscar, store shelves are becoming crowded and the company's consumer base is also being presented with Internet alternatives. Gross margins continue to weaken, and a lack of smash-hits in the quarter didn't give the company enough "oomph" to get over the margin slump. Sales are expected to come in around $41 to $44 million, down from about $48 million last year and $45 million the year before that.
QUICK CUTS: Systems management software company UNISON SOFTWARE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UNSN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UNSN)") end if %> plunged $8 1/8 to $6 1/4 after saying that it expects Q3 revenues of $9.3 to $-9.6 million and EPS of $0.08 to 0.10, below estimates of $0.13... CELLPRO <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CPRO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CPRO)") end if %> lost $1 5/8 to $9 3/8 after the a patent dispute with Johns Hopkins University and BAXTER INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BAX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BAX)") end if %> was revived yesterday... Competitive local exchange carrier TELEPORT COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCGI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCGI)") end if %> slid $3 3/8 to $23 1/2 as takeover speculators left the stock following the company's announcement that it will file to offer debt or equity securities... APPLIED MAGNETICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: APM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: APM)") end if %> lost $2 1/2 to $37 3/4 after investor Jeff Vinik lightened up his stake in the disk drive head maker... GRUPO INDUSTRIAL MASECA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MSK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MSK)") end if %> fell $1 to $16 on announcing a 42% increase in yearly sales and a 16% increase in earnings.
FOOL ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion by MF
Templar
Dressed for Success
MEN'S WEARHOUSE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUIT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUIT)") end if %> buttoned up $4 to $29 1/4 today after the off-price retailer of men's suits announced fourth quarter earnings. Men's Wearhouse reported $0.49 EPS, three cents better than consensus estimates and a full 22.5% higher than the same period a year ago. Investors are encouraged by the company's recent strong sales as well as the pending deal to acquire the assets of one of its competitors, Kuppenheimer's Men's Clothiers. The shares moved on more than six times normal volume leading into the close, implying that there was pretty significant interest in the numbers that Men's Wearhouse reported today.
Shareholders in Men's Wearhouse have had a rough ride over the past twelve months, with the stock dropping from $31 1/4 to $23 in the space of one week in July. The rapid drop coincided with a slowing in same-store sales growth, as Men's Wearhouse reported same-store sales gains of 0.2% for the month of June on July 8th. Same-store sales growth remained torpid for much of the next few months, ranging as high as 0.9% to as low as -3.3% between September and November. Sales trends recently began to turn around and gain momentum, with the company posting a 4.5% same-store sales gain in December, a 18.5% gain in January, and a whooping 27.3% gain in February.
Investors with strong stomachs could have picked up the shares as low as $16 in November, the month same-store sales turned negative. Looking at a chart of the company's stock and matching it against same-store sales growth gives a near-perfect correlation, indicating that the Street is using same-store sales growth as a measure of the overall health of Men's Wearhouse. Although certainly same-store sales is an important piece of data, the volatility in the stock that has resulted from a few months of weak sales trends has been somewhat extreme. Perhaps investors who paid more attention to the fact that Men's Wearhouse had opened nearly 50 stores in the current fiscal year -- increasing total stores by 18.0% to 328 -- may have been persuaded that total sales growth was intact and that much of the selling was unwarranted.
Men's Wearhouse has shown an uncanny ability to prosper at a time when dress clothing retailing is not exactly the hottest growth industry going. This is because of the company's consistent growth, achieved through acquiring its weaker competitors at discount prices and consolidating them into the Men's Wearhouse franchise. The company acquired 17 Clothier Stores in Southern California in mid-January and announced the acquisition of 43 Kuppenheimer's Men's Clothiers units yesterday. The company plans to open 50 Men's Wearhouse stores in fiscal 1997, possibly in addition to the Kuppenheimer units. This would increase the number of stores by as much as 25% in 1997, meaning total sales growth can continue its torrid pace even if same-store sales slip here and there.
The deal with Kuppenheimer appears particularly promising, as it gives Men's Wearhouse a solid presence in Chicago, Atlanta and St. Louis for a fairly low price. Kuppenheimer has been operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since August of 1996, during which time it has shut down roughly 40 stores. Under a joint venture crafted with liquidating firm Buxbaum, Ginsberg & Associates, Kuppenheimer will have one last going out of business sale run by Men's Wearhouse, and then Men's Wearhouse will obtain the tradename, customer list, certain fixed assets and other proprietary information of Kuppenheimer. Men's Wearhouse will also be able to review each store and determine whether or not it should be converted into a Men's Wearhouse unit, expanding the reach of the core operation.
Men's Wearhouse did well in its seasonally strong fourth quarter, with $1.01 in EPS on $483.5 million in sales. The company's 7.8% operating margins are typical of the retail clothing industry, but are certainly better than the vast majority of its increasingly bankrupt competition. With 21.2 million shares outstanding, minimal cash, and $57.5 million in long-term debt, the company currently trades with an enterprise value that is 1.4 times times the company's total sales. Current estimates call for $1.24 EPS next year, a number that will probably be raised pending the ramifications of the Kuppenheimer deal. Although the company is a strong consolidator in a moribund business, even if the earnings estimates creep up by 12% to reflect the full addition of the Kupperheimer's base -- assuming that those stores generate the same amount of earnings as the average Men's Wearhouse store -- the stock still trades at more than 21 times forward earnings. Given the low operating margins and the 25% long-term growth rate, it would seem the company is approaching fair value.
CONFERENCE CALLS
AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %>
To Discuss 1997 Initiatives
(800) 475-6701 code # 333536
(320) 365-3844 code # 333536 outside the U.S.
Until midnight on Wednesday, March 5
ZITEL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ZITL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ZITL)") end if %>
Emerald Research Conference Call
(706) 645-9291 code 292069.
DAYTON HUDSON CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DH)") end if %>
(800) 633-8284 (reservation # 2471412) -- replay avail until 5PM EST
DEPUY INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DPU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DPU)") end if %> & Landanger-Camus
Regarding merger
(800) 964-4428 - replay through 3/5
(402) 280-9277 (outside US)
3COM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") end if %> -US ROBOTICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USRX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USRX)") end if %>
To Discuss Merger Proposal
(800) 633-8284 (code 2531747) -- replay
ORTEL CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORTL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORTL)") end if %>
(402) 220-5186 -- replay through 3/7
ECHLIN INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ECH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ECH)") end if %>
(re: recent changes at the company)
(800) 683-1535 (password: New company) -- replay thru 3/7
GENZYME <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GENZ)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GENZ)") end if %>, GENZYME TRANSGENICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GZTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GZTC)") end if %>
(402) 220-4884 -- replay available through 3/12
DOLLAR GENERAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DG)") end if %>
(402) 220-1032 (code: 971032) -- replay through 3/7 @ 6:00 PM EST
ANOTHER FOOLISH THING
Arizona Stock Analysis
Why Arizona? Because, like Delaware, many companies are chartered there, taking advantage of the beneficial business environment. Small, under-followed emerging Arizona growth companies were a terrific place to invest over the past few years and MF Yon, the Editor of "Arizona Stock Analysis," believes this will continue in the future. His strategy of identifying winners before the Street catches on has been most profitable, with his average selection up an annualized 236% through February. Obviously, there can be no assurance that future selections will enjoy the same returns, but Yon believes there is considerable merit to picking up the winners before the Street's analysts pile on. Yon began sharing his views online last fall in the "Folly in Arizona" folder (part of the 50 states boards) and his analysis has led to the publication of the Arizona Stock Analysis, a monthly newsletter available by e-mail or fax. If this piques your interest, check it out at keyword: FoolMart or at our or e-mail [email protected].
MORE FOOLISHNESS
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Heroes & Goats
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Editing
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