HEROES
TARGET THERAPEUTICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TGET)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TGET)") end if %> shot up $13 1/4 to $70 1/4 today after gaining better than $12 yesterday when traders nailed the meaning of a BOSTON SCIENTIFIC <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BSX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BSX)") end if %> announcement of a conference call after bell. Trading in Target shares was halted yesterday and didn't open until today after Boston Scientific announced that it would merge with Target, whose precision medical devices are used to treat such problems as brain aneurysms. The deal offers 1.07 shares of Boston Scientific stock for each Target share and values Target at $1.13 billion, or about 13 times annualized sales and 82 times annualized earnings. Target's trailing P/E might look absurdly rich, especially in comparison to its estimated growth rate, but Boston Scientific runs a much larger company at better than 30% operating margin and figures that it can drive the bottom line on these specialized products to justify the current price.
BOEING CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") end if %> soared $7 3/8 to $113 7/8 after announcing that it will not go ahead with its 747-X series aircraft, which would have cost $5-7 billion to develop. While the 500X would have bested by 20% the flying range of the 747-400 series and the 600X would have increased seating capacity 32%, the company believes it has its bases covered with its current 747 and 777 models in terms of seating configurations and operating costs. Without immediate pressure from the Airbus consortium, which has been more competitive in areas other than long-haul aircraft, Boeing is going to concentrate more on integrating MCDONNELL DOUGLAS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MD)") end if %> operations and the Joint Strike Fighter program as its major investment initiative.
Number three U.S. automaker CHRYSLER CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") end if %> gained $1 1/2 to $36 after turning in another strong quarter, reporting pre-charge earnings per share (EPS) of $1.51 for the fourth quarter, beating estimates of $1.43. Chairman Robert Eaton said he is more confident that the company can weather the next downturn, which has always been a worry of the company. In the coming year Chrysler sees continuing strength and per-vehicle profits with a strong product lineup including its Sebring convertibles, perennially favorite Jeeps and mini-vans, and Ram pickups, which have given the company a presence in the very lucrative full-size truck market. The company also expects to increase profit margins and continue to take market share.
QUICK TAKES: Physician practice management company INPHYNET MEDICAL MANAGEMENT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IMMI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IMMI)") end if %> gained $2 7/8 to $25 5/8 on signing a merger agreement with MEDPARTNERS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MDM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MDM)") end if %>... TECNOL MEDICAL PRODUCTS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCNL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCNL)") end if %> jumped $2 3/16 to $17 1/4 after signing a 5-year contract to supply the nation's largest hospital purchasing cooperative... Digital brokerage E*TRADE GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGRP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGRP)") end if %> climbed $3 1/8 to $16 3/8 on announcing its Web-based services for America Online members... REMEDY CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RMDY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: RMDY)") end if %> scored a $8 5/8 gain to $48 7/8 on a "buy" recommendation from Goldman Sachs... Helped by the Remedy Corp. rise, SCOPUS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCOP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCOP)") end if %> rose $4 3/4 to $46 and VANTIVE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VNTV)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VNTV)") end if %> moved up $2 1/4 to $30... Inkjet products company TRIDENT INTERNATIONAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRDT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRDT)") end if %> gained $2 7/8 to $18 1/8 after recording Q1 EPS of $0.24, turning things around from a loss last year... DAY RUNNER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DAYR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DAYR)") end if %> moved up $3 to $22 1/4 after reporting weak results as expected, but making positive comments about coming quarters... Agriculture insurance company CROP GROWERS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CGRO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CGRO)") end if %> gained $1 3/8 to $8 after pleading no contest to criminal charges involving campaign contributions... DAUPHIN DEPOSIT CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DAPN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DAPN)") end if %> beat earnings estimates reporting $0.62 EPS for the fourth quarter... Medical instruments company SEAMED CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEMD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEMD)") end if %> rose $1 3/8 to $13 5/8 after underwriter Piper Jaffray initiated coverage yesterday with a "strong buy" recommendation... MDL INFORMATION SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MDLI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MDLI)") end if %> gained $2 3/4 to $24 after J.P. Morgan upgraded the shares of the life sciences/chemical software company to "buy"... Web transaction company OPEN MARKET <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OMKT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OMKT)") end if %> gained $1 3/8 to $15 3/8 on signing a deal with DISNEY <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %>... SCI SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCIS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCIS)") end if %> moved $3 3/4 higher to $53 3/4 after the contract manufacturer reported Q2 EPS of $0.88, up 19% from last year's second quarter.... Electronic components company TECHNITROL INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: TNL)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: TNL)") end if %> added $5 to $49 1/4 on reporting that it will get rid of its test and measurement division... KULICK & SOFFA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KLIC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KLIC)") end if %> was up $2 3/8 to $27 3/8 as customer INTEL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> continues to be constrained with its high-end CPUs... Cigar company MAFCO CONSOLIDATED GROUP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MFO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MFO)") end if %> gained $8 1/8 to $35 1/4 after the company announced it will go private by purchasing its publicly-held shares for $38.50 a share... USLIFE CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: USH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: USH)") end if %> rose $3 7/8 to $40 1/8 after Schroeder Wertheim raised its rating on the life insurance company on the opinion that it's an attractive takeover target... Having escaped the mothership, NCR CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") end if %> gained $3 1/8 to $38 3/4 after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.34 before restructuring charges... TERADYNE INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TER)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TER)") end if %> rose $2 to $29 1/4 on reporting fourth quarter results.
GOATS
Respiratory device and patient monitoring products company NELLCOR PURITAN BENNETT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NELL)") end if %> lost $5 3/4 to $18 after reporting second quarter EPS of $0.20, below expectations of $0.30 per share. Outside of a charge for the acquisition of Aequitron, the company's operating margin dropped below 10%, reflecting revenue growth problems and what analysts see as an ongoing strategic miss on the combination of Nellcor and Puritan Bennett. At the end of last year, Nellcor's operating margin was above 20%, but has dropped from 15% to 12% to 10% in the last three quarters. J.P. Morgan dropped its rating on the company to "neutral," while Schroder Wertheim & Co. analyst David Zimbalist said in a Dow Jones interview, "This is a really horrible quarter.... The underlying reality may not be as bad, but the question is, how bad is it?''
WESTELL TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WSTL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WSTL)") end if %> fell $2 7/16 to $15 5/8, as the past year has seen the best of times and the worst of times at the company. Having hit a high in the $50s last summer, the company was slammed when it lost out on a joint purchase consortium involving four Baby Bell companies. Yesterday, competitor AMATI <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMTX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMTX)") end if %> announced its Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer (DSLAM), which feeds signals from a home or office onto the Internet or intranet backbone. Once thought to be in the vanguard of DSL companies along with PAIRGAIN <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") end if %>, that perception has changed with companies such as ASCEND <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %> talking about DSL strategies and doing deals with smaller firms like AWARE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AWRE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AWRE)") end if %>, which has an ongoing alliance with ANALOG DEVICES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ADI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ADI)") end if %>.
QUICK CUTS: PROXIMA CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRXM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRXM)") end if %> lost $3 5/8 to $12 7/8 after the multimedia projection systems maker reported a 46% decline in Q3 EPS... NEUREX CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NXCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NXCO)") end if %> fell $1 7/16 to $15 1/4 after pharmaceutical company WARNER LAMBERT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WLA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WLA)") end if %> cut its stake in Neurex to 6.8%... Business software developer ROSS SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ROSS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ROSS)") end if %> fell $1 7/8 to $6 7/8 after pre-announcing disappointing Q2 results... Networking products company ASANTE TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASNT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASNT)") end if %> lost $1 to $4 1/2 on reporting Q1 EPS of two cents... STORMEDIA INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: STMD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: STMD)") end if %> lost $2 7/8 to $19 1/2 after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.02... DYNATECH CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DYTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DYTC)") end if %> fell $6 1/2 to $42 after the telco test equipment maker reported Q3 pre-charge EPS of $0.58... Disk media equipment supplier INTEVAC INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IVAC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IVAC)") end if %> fell $1 3/4 to $19 3/4 on reporting Q4 EPS of $0.27, better than estimates... RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RS)") end if %> slumped $3 5/8 to $29 5/8 after Prudential Securities cut its rating on the steel service center firm to "hold" from "buy"... Physician practice management company MEDPARTNERS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MDM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MDM)") end if %> was shorn $1 3/4 to $20 1/8 after announcing its merger with InPhyNet Medical Management (see item above)... Recreational vehicle and modular housing company COACHMEN INDUSTRIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: COA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: COA)") end if %> fell $3 3/8 to $22 3/4 after reporting an 8% increase in Q4 EPS... CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTOR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CY)") end if %> slipped $1 5/8 to $12 7/8 after its earnings release disappointed investors hoping for a quick turnaround... Auto and truck parts company ECHLIN INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ECH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ECH)") end if %> fell $1 3/4 to $30 3/4 after pre-announcing flat second quarter earnings... BJ SERVICES CO. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BJS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BJS)") end if %> lost $2 7/8 to $51 as investors apparently weren't satisfied with the oil service company's earnings report.
FOOL ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion by MF
Templar
Citrix Growth Metrics
CITRIX SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CTXS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CTXS)") end if %> surged $7 1/8 to $47 1/8 after handily beating earnings estimates. The network software developer reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.24 per share, up from $0.07 per share a year ago and about seven cents more than consensus expectations. Citrix produces a product known as WinFrame that allows people in a network environment to use Windows applications no matter what their location on the network, the type of device they are using, or how much "bandwidth" is available to them.
Citrix Systems has captured the imagination of many technology strategists as the company is poised to benefit from heterogeneous networks using multiple types of computers. As various corporations install traditional Wintel personal computers, Macintoshes, Sun Workstations and Oracle-style network computers, corporate users will need some kind of network software that enables this environment to function seamlessly with applications that are familiar to employees. Citrix Systems is in many ways a technology-concept stock, similar to XYLAN CORP. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XYLN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XYLN)") end if %> in the networking world.
There are a number of compelling features to Citrix's financials. In the fourth quarter net revenues tripled, growing much faster than product-related costs or operating expenses. This is why Citrix was able to expand its operating profit (pre-tax and pre-interest income) to 43.2% of revenues from 26.9% a year ago. By way of comparison, MICROSOFT'S <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> operating profits are roughly 25% of revenues. Citrix Systems also has a virtually spotless balance sheet, carrying $137.3 million in cash and equivalents with only $7.7 million in current liabilities and virtually no long-term debt.
The extraordinarily high valuation on the stock has also attracted some short-sellers, in spite of the company's obvious strengths. Having booked $44.5 million in revenues last year with 28.6 million shares outstanding, Citrix Systems trades at 30.3 times sales. Even if you net out the substantial slug of cash the company has on the balance sheet, the valuation is still 27.2 times sales. With such high operating margins, however, the company generates a lot of profits. Estimates for the current fiscal year were $0.51 EPS before today's results put them at $0.68 EPS on trailing earnings. In fact, analysts were projecting that Citrix would make $0.68 EPS next year -- meaning the company is a year ahead of analysts' financial models.
The performance of the stock over the past year has been incredible, although it has been choppy recently. Citrix Systems has pulled back from its 52-week high of $56 3/4 in late October of 1996 due to concerns over how widely the so-called network computer (NC) will be implemented. Many investors see Citrix as a major beneficiary if corporations begin to adopt the network computer, a stripped-down version of the personal computer that accesses information on a server rather than hosting software on its own internal hard-drive. The introduction of NETSCAPE'S <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NSCP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NSCP)") end if %> multi-platform application software has also caused some to doubt whether Citrix can compete in this crucial space, even though the might of Microsoft is behind them.
As earnings estimates are revised over the next few days, it seems clear that the 33% earnings growth analysts were forecasting for next year is probably way too low. The estimates for Citrix bring to mind estimates for ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %> a year or two ago -- every quarter the company is two quarters ahead of the analysts' projections and they have to raise the estimates again. If this quarter is any indication, 50% profit growth next year to $1.02 EPS seems possible -- meaning that here at $47 3/4 the company might actually be fairly priced, in spite of the high valuation relative to revenues. Investors interested in the company are encouraged to develop their own financial models, as the ones that analysts are using are obviously based on highly conservative assumptions.
CONFERENCE CALLS
CHRYSLER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") end if %>
(402) 344-6802
US ROBOTICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USRX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USRX)") end if %>
(303) 267-1037 Code 164010
ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %>
replay available until 1/24
1-800-475-6701 (access code: 326346)
SUN MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") end if %>
1-800-633-8284 (reservation # 2274153) -- replay
AVALON PROPERTIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AVN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AVN)") end if %>
(402) 220-6017 -- replay avail through 1/28
COMPUTER ASSOCIATES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CA)") end if %>
1-888-243-0816 (code: 8642) -- replay avail for 48 hrs. (note: # is toll
free)
ANOTHER FOOLISH THING
Painless Stock Valuations
Learn to value stocks painlessly! In the Industry Decathlon primer, MF Bogey takes readers by the hand and walks them through five stock valuation methods and ten financial ratios, demonstrating how to compare a bunch of companies in your industry of choice and find the most promising one. This is very useful stuff, folks! Check it out in FoolMart. You might also be interested in his weekly Industry Decathlon report, delivered by e-mail or fax. In it, Bogey examines a different industry each week and runs its top players through his decathlon to discover which one company looks the most attractive.
Randy Befumo (MF Templar),
a Fool
Fool On the Hill
Dale Wettlaufer (MF Raleigh), another
Fool
Heroes & Goats
Brian Bauer (MF Hoops), one more Fool
Editing
THE DAILY NEWS CAN BE DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO ANY INTERNET E-MAIL BOX.