Yesterday's brief break in the Great Blizzard of '96 gave the folks at the Federal Reserve a chance to slip into the office and release the Consumer Installment Credit report for the month of November.

During November, total consumer credit rose by $8.6 billion to a grand total of $1.014 trillion. This was the 30th straight month of rising consumer debt. The seasonally adjusted annualized credit growth rate in November was 10.4%, down from a rate of 13.7% in October.

Revolving credit accounts (including credit card accounts) are the largest component of the cumulated outstanding debt, accounting for 38.6% of the total. Since the middle of 1995, the growth in revolving credit has slowed considerably. From January through June, the monthly annualized increases in revolving credit averaged 21.6%. But, for the five months ending in November the average dropped to 11.3%. No doubt about it, in recent months consumers have become more cautious about running up additional short-term, high-interest debt.

Meanwhile, down south, the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank released the results of its December survey of Southeastern manufacturers. The results were similar to those reported recently by other Federal Reserve districts. The percentage of survey respondents reporting month-to-month production increases fell from 33% to 26% from November to December. The District's index of new orders fell from -6.7 to -12.9. 30% of the respondents reported higher inventories of finished goods -- up from 21% in November. On the employment front, December was the second weakest month since the survey was begun four years ago. Just 11% of the surveyed firms reported hiring additional workers, and 24% reported workforce reductions.

The shutdown of the Commerce Department and the Labor Department has seriously inhibited the flow of information about the economy during the past few weeks. But, the information that has been available, from private sources and the Federal Reserve, has all been consistent with the scenario of slowing economic growth and increasing consumer caution that existed before the government shutdown.

Byline: Lafferty (MF Merlin)