Today Mitsubishi Bank/Shroeder-Wertheim reported that retail sales for the week ending December 30 were up 1.8% from the preceding week. Mitsubishi's weekly chain store index is based on same-store sales at the nation's largest retail chains.

We can gain insight into real-life, day-to-day consumerism in action by examining the Mitsubishi Bank/Shroeder-Wertheim data for the past six weeks. In the four weeks preceding the week before Christmas, Mitsubishi reported week-to-week sales changes of -0.2%, -0.2%, +0.1%, and +0.2%. During the week before Christmas, sales jumped by +1.4%. Then last week, the week after Christmas, sales jumped again by 1.8%.

The scenario is clear: Cash-strapped consumers held off most of their Christmas shopping until desperate retailers marked prices down just before Christmas. Then, when prices were knocked down still further for the post-Christmas sales, canny consumers hit the malls again -- even harder than the preceding week. I can hardly wait to see what happens next week. Tune in for the next exciting episode.

Byline: Lafferty (MF Merlin)