Because of the Government shutdown, the Commerce and Labor departments have had to postpone the release of six major reports of economic data since December 19. What's more, the shutdown will also cause the postponement of at least four more releases between now and January 12.

During the past several months the Commerce Department, in a cost-cutting move, has been phasing itself out of some of its activities related to the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Earlier this year, Commerce contracted with the Conference Board to compile and analyze the leading indicators based on data collected by the Government. Tomorrow was scheduled to be the first release by the Conference Board. But, guess what folks? It ain't gonna happen. Because of the shutdown, four of the eleven indicators that make up the index are not available. The Conference Board has had to postpone the LEI release.

Another Conference Board report was released on schedule today. The Board announced that its seasonally-adjusted index of help-wanted advertising had declined from 131 to 127 between October and November. A year earlier the index was at 134.

The Conference Board performs a monthly survey of the volume of help-wanted advertising appearing in 51 U.S. newspapers. The Board has found that ad volume provides an indication of local, regional, and national labor market conditions.

For the nation as a whole, job advertising volume rose during the first six months of 1995. But, since then, the volume has been little changed. At the local level, in the past three months, help-wanted advertising volume fell in six of the nine employment regions defined by the Board. Thus, the advertising data for the past year provides yet another confirmation of the economic slowdown that has been in evidence for some time.

The New York Purchasing Management Association reported today that its Index of Regional Business Conditions declined from 55.4 to 52.8 from November to December. The Chicago Purchasing Managers survey is due to be released tomorrow. These local surveys are of regional interest and sometimes provide hints about the results of the upcoming national survey. But, it is the survey by the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), due next Tuesday, that should be of the greatest interest. Because of the budget impasse, we missed the update on the third quarter GDP that was supposed to be released on December 19. Based on historical data, the NAPM has determined that its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) correlates fairly closely with the GDP. So, perhaps we can get an indication of the overall state of the economy from next Tuesday's NAPM report..

Byline: Lafferty (MF Merlin)