Contrary to what I said yesterday, my latest trip to The Mall will not show up in the weekly retail sales reports until next week. The reports released today by Mitsubishi Bank/Shroder-Wertheim [MB/SW] and Johnson Redbook were current up to the week ending last Saturday, December 2.

The MB/SW report, issued this morning, showed that U.S. chain store sales were down 0.2% from the previous week. This comes on the heels of a drop of 0.2% in sales between the previous week and the week before that.

Based on results at comparable stores, the change in sales over the same week last year was +5.1%.

In last week's report MB/SW estimated that sales for December would be 5.5% higher than last year. But, after this week's numbers were available, their estimated monthly gain was revised down to the 4.0% to 4.5% range.

MB/SW's weekly chain store index is based on same-store sales by the nation's largest retail chains. The Johnson Redbook survey is based on total store sales and uses a survey sample representing approximately 10% of the stores surveyed by the Commerce Department for its monthly report on the retail sector.

Johnson Redbook's report this afternoon showed that sales for the week ended December 2 were down 1.6%, and that the change in sales compared to the same week last year was +4.6%.

If you are a regular reader of these articles, you are already aware of the economic conditions leading up to the present state of the retail sector: consumers are showing signs of being maxed out on their ability to make credit purchases; there have been no real gains in wages for the past two years; weekly claims for unemployment insurance have been surging for the past several weeks.

And don't forget those 800,000 federal employees who were furloughed just before Thanksgiving and are living under the threat of another government shut down come December 15. You're not inclined to be filled with the spirit of spending if you're not sure if or when you're getting your next paycheck. There are those who might say "Go ahead, close down the government. Send those people home. Who's going to miss them?" Well, you can bet that the nation's retailers are already missing them.

Byline: Lafferty (MF Merlin)