
This Week, Industry Snapshot Looks
at
Fast Food Restaurants
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This Week's Industry
Snapshot
Eaten any fast food lately? Most likely you have, and you are certainly not
alone. Call it the "Golden Age" of fast food. The "quick service" industry,
liberally sprinkled with hamburger joints and pizza delivery places, has
risen to the hectic challenge presented by life in the late 1990s by providing
speedy eats, friendly service, tasty food, and clean surroundings. More than
50% of all meals eaten out of the home are eaten at fast food places, a
development that only first occurred in 1994.
All this growth has not come without problems. The surge in demand for "food
on-the-run" has faced labor shortages, stagnant pricing, capacity constraints
(in the U.S.), and "concept" saturation, meaning that there are way too many
of the same kind of chains. The fast food market and the casual dining segment
are overgrown with these "concepts," each vying for a smaller share of the
disposable income dollar.
Keeping concepts fresh and current in the customer's eyes is just one of
the challenges in the business. This Snapshot essentially cleaves the restaurant
industry in half, with "fast food" encompassing all the concepts in which
there is no individual menu or table service. Some indexes of restaurant
stocks further break down the fast food arena into hamburger concepts, delivery
concepts, and "fast-casual" concepts. However, we feel these differences
stem more from market focus than from the companies' operating models, so
we employ the broader classification.
Thus far this year, a comprehensive index of restaurants tracked by Wheat
First Securities was up 14.2%, lagging considerably behind the S&P 500.
Hamburger chains, which include three of the companies featured in this Snapshot,
are up 25.7% this year, making them the star performers of the restaurant
group as a whole. The overall restaurant industry trades at roughly 15x aggregate
1998 earnings estimates, which represents a 22% discount to the overall growth
rate of the industry. This is definitely a depressed industry.
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