<THE FOOLISH FOUR>

Chasing Home Runs
by Rick Aristotle Munarriz
(TMF Edible)

Miami, FL (Sep. 3, 1998) -- I'm a Florida Marlins baseball fan. Trust me, this sports fluff will have market relevance by the time I'm through. I think. Anyway, my local team in teal has been strangely in sync with the market lately. Last year, euphoria. Right now, I feel hurt and deceived. I was misled. No, not by the market, but by the management of my Marlins -- dem bums.

One of the few joys of this dreadful season was going out to watch Mark McGwire play Tuesday night. The night before that, he was shut out. Completely. He struck out twice even. Anybody who saw the market tank more than 500 points on Monday and later caught McGwire's performance would probably have come to the conclusion that both were duds. History tells us otherwise. Both McGwire and McMarket have been prolific power hitters at the plate. So when Tuesday came around, despite storm clouds hovering about, the market bounced back -- and McGwire hit two dingers into the suddenly not-so-cheap seats at Pro Player Stadium.

I take solace in that. I warm up to the fire of backtested data that tells me that dry spells come and go, but on average, the rewards go deeeeep and over the left field fence. So what if the mighty Casey strikes out today, or this month or even this whole year. There is still joy in Mudville. When you hear that the market has had annualized returns of 10-12%, with the Foolish Four surpassing even that, just follow the Cooperstown-inspired recipe where you take the bull and the bear, set the blender on frappe, and the smoothie over the years is the best tasting asset class around. Fiscal creatine, the Be Foolish! drink of champions.

Well, if you've made it this far, there is some Foolish Four news taking practice swings in the on-deck circle. From Chasing Maris to Racing Morris, we now bring you news that's as dated as the "We're all going to die!" headline filling up your local newspaper's business section. That's right, we're talking about last week. Philip Morris <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %> found tradition.

After years of perpetual dividend hikes, the company stopped to catch its breath last year. Tobacco has a way of causing that, you know. Snapping the string of ever-rising payouts seemed like a public relations move at the time. With smokes under the judicial microscope the last thing that the company wanted to do was draw attention to itself and how it's making so much money that it might as well give more back to its owners.

This year the climate is a bit more forgiving, so the Marlboro maker went back to its annual ritual to ante up the dividend. Subliminally it means that MO has upgraded its lasers from stun to kill. Last year the company was defensive. This year it's go, MO, go! Not that the stock has been on a tear, but by holding its own over the past month while both Union Carbide <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") end if %> and International Paper <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %> have fallen, the food and tobacco giant is not long the, ummm, butt of the Dow.

Putting ethics aside, something which I know is hard for many out there to do, Philip Morris went from being the lowest priced Dow 30 stock with the highest yield that would be handed the consolation prize at the next Foolish Four awards ceremony, to the third lowest priced stock, which just happens to have the highest yield. For those getting ready to start your Foolish Four strategy, or those whose switch is warming up in the bullpen, this changes everything. It's a fielders choice grounder, where Philip Morris gets on base, International Paper and Union Carbide are safe, and AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %> gets forced out at the plate. And, gee, as fate would have it, Ma Bell also happens to be this week's Dueling Fools feature.

Almost tactical. Almost like baseball. Where, like the market, you can have your peanuts and your Cracker Jack -- but it would be a shame if you didn't care if you ever came back.

Ladies and gentlemen, this Fool has left the building.

Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns

What Happened to Robert Sheard?

09/03/98 Close
Stock  Change   Last 
 -------------------- 
 UK   -1  1/4   39.63 
 IP   +   7/16  38.69 
 MO   +   1/2   42.88 
 EK   -   5/8   82.00 
  
 
 
                    Day   Month    Year 
         FOOL-4   -0.44%   3.04%   4.38% 
         DJIA     -1.29%   1.90%  -2.86% 
         S&P 500  -0.83%   2.58%   1.22% 
         NASDAQ   -1.32%   4.85%   0.10% 
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko    60.56     82.00    35.40% 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor    45.25     42.88    -5.25% 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb    42.94     39.63    -7.71% 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape    43.13     38.69   -10.29% 
  
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko 12475.88  16892.00  $4416.13 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor 12489.00  11833.50  -$655.50 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb 12494.81  11530.88  -$963.94 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape 12463.13  11180.69 -$1282.44 
  
  
                              CASH    $754.73 
                             TOTAL  $52191.79