The Daily Dow
Wednesday, October 15, 1997
by Robert Sheard

LEXINGTON, KY. (Oct. 15, 1997) -- There were two more earnings reports and an analyst upgrade today as we hit full stride in the third quarter earnings season. Following yesterday's better-than-expected earnings from GENERAL MOTORS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %>, Lehman Brothers analyst Joseph Pillippi raised his twelve-month price target for the nation's largest auto maker from $73 to $80 a share. Pillippi believes the consensus annual earnings estimate of $8.00 per share is too low for GM. Nevertheless, even a price of $80 only represents a 14% move over today's level, not exactly putting it in overdrive.

INTERNATIONAL PAPER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %> saw its quarterly earnings slip from last year, dropping from 37 cents per share to 34, but the result still exceeded First Call's consensus estimate of 32 cents per share. Despite the drop in earnings, the company claims it's pleased with recent restructuring efforts and, in fact, is ahead of its 1997 schedule to cut $300 million in costs. Analysts believe the cost savings will help International Paper exceed expectations in the future. In addition to the cost-cutting measures, the company is also selling some of its timberland holdings.

Yet another recent Dow high-yielder posted good earnings today. CATERPILLAR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") end if %> recorded $1.03 versus 81 cents in the year-ago period, easily surpassing the 92 cents per share Wall Street was expecting. With both domestic and international sales climbing 14% and margin as a percentage of sales climbing above 25%, Caterpillar's earnings climbed 24% over last year. The company has repurchased nearly 32 million shares since June of 1995 and expects to complete its current buyback program of 10% of all shares by the end of next year.

So far for the quarter, the Dow hasn't seen any negative earnings surprises, even with the strong U.S. dollar, which can hurt companies with major overseas exposure. We've still got a ways to go in this quarter's earnings season, but so far, the picture looks as everyone expected it to: continued steady growth in earnings in a moderate interest-rate environment with very low inflation. Can it continue throughout the fourth quarter and into 1998? Only your gooroo knows (after the fact, that is). Don't worry about it, anyway. Buy the best stocks available today and think about the decade down the road, not the next month or quarter.

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1997 Foolish Four Model
Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    -1        44.94
GM   ---       70.38
CHV  +1  3/16  86.69
MMM  -1        97.63
           Day   Month    Year
                  Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   -0.69%   3.76%  20.54%
        DJIA     -0.47%   1.42%  24.96%
        S&P 500  -0.47%   1.95%  30.37%
        NASDAQ   -0.54%   2.24%  33.49%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     86.69    33.37%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     70.38    26.23%
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     97.63    17.62%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     44.94     7.63%


    Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00  13263.19  $3318.19
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25  12597.13  $2617.88
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00  11715.00  $1755.00
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  21525.06  $1526.81


                             CASH   $1167.51
                            TOTAL  $60267.89