The Daily Dow
Monday, June 30, 1997
by Robert Sheard
LEXINGTON, KY. (June 30, 1997) -- Whenever the market enjoys a healthy run as we've witnessed over the last thirty months, some questions naturally come up. In the Foolish Four area, one of the most frequent questions is whether the approach itself can grow too popular.
Aside from the essential fact that the Dow stocks are among America's largest companies, with trading volumes well into the millions of shares every day, it's unlikely that the Dow Approach itself will ever choke on itself for a more central reason -- human nature.
Above all else, the Dow Approach is a contrarian approach. This may not be as evident in a market where almost everything has enjoyed a measure of success, but give it time. When the market is slipping or when some stocks enter the Beating the Dow list that no one wants -- like we're seeing to some degree today with PHILIP MORRIS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %> -- then we'll begin to see the popularity of the approach dry up.
Despite the cliche "buy low, sell high," most investors aren't cut out to invest that way. When a stock is truly low, most investors can't bring themselves to buy. Would you have bought UNION CARBIDE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") end if %> in 1984 after Bhopal? Would you have bought TEXACO <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TX)") end if %> in 1985 after the company lost a $10 billion settlement to PENNZOIL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PZL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PZL)") end if %> and had to file for bankruptcy protection while it reorganized? Would you have bought EXXON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") end if %> in 1989 after the Exxon Valdez ran aground in Alaska's Prince William Sound? And yet, those are precisely the bargain opportunities that bring "buy low, sell high" to reality. Most of us just can't do it.
Fortunately, the Dow Approach gives us a disciplined and objective approach
to buying stocks that the market has undervalued and then rotating out of
them after they've priced themselves out of the bargain basement. It will
have better years and weaker years, and if AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %> doesn't
perk up, 1997 might be the kind of under-performing year that will scare
a lot of undisciplined investors away. But over the long haul, it usually
does a terrific job of fulfilling our quota of over-used and
tired-to-the-point-of-meaninglessness sayings: Buy Low and Sell High.
(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool. ________________________________
Stock Change Last -------------------- T - 11/16 35.06 GM - 1/8 55.69 CHV +1 3/16 73.94 MMM + 1/8 102.00
Day Month Year
FOOL-4 -0.30% 1.73% 2.17%
DJIA -0.09% 4.77% 19.12%
S&P 500 -0.24% 4.35% 19.50%
NASDAQ +0.27% 2.98% 11.70%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
1/2/97 120 3M 83.00 102.00 22.89%
1/2/97 153 Chevron 65.00 73.94 13.75%
1/2/97 179 Gen. Motor 55.75 55.69 -0.11%
1/2/97 479 AT&T 41.75 35.06 -16.02%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
1/2/97 120 3M 9960.00 12240.00 $2280.00
1/2/97 153 Chevron 9945.00 11312.44 $1367.44
1/2/97 179 Gen. Motor 9979.25 9968.06 -$11.19
1/2/97 479 AT&T 19998.25 16794.94 -$3203.31
CASH $767.60
TOTAL $51083.04