The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (May 12, 1997) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average
entered record high territory again today. Inevitably such an event will
raise questions in novice and experienced investors alike. Is this the right
time to be investing in a Dow-based strategy?
Underneath such a question, however, is an assumption that runs counter to
Folly. To ask such a question implies that what happens today (or even tomorrow,
next month, or for the next year) is of primary importance to us. It is not.
We firmly believe that stock investing is a long-term proposition. The absolute
minimum for an investment in the stock market is 3-5 years. (This doesn't
suggest that you'll stay invested in the same stocks throughout that period,
but that you will stay fully invested in stocks.)
With a much longer-term perspective, then, say five, ten, twenty five years
into the future, we're not particularly concerned with the direction of "the
market" today. That's a convenient philosophy for us, of course, because
we don't believe anyone's very good at predicting short-term market movements
anyway. It's a game we feel is less fruitful than a long-term commitment
to stocks.
If you're considering starting a Dow portfolio, let me glean a line from
Tom Gardner's exposition of long-term Cask King investing: there are no buy
points. You invest when you're ready and then you stay fully invested in
the best available stocks you can identify at any particular moment (presumably
using an approach like the Foolish Four or its cousins), riding out peaks
and valleys rather than trying to jump in and out of the market based on
some macro-economic factor.
In other words, I don't have an answer to the oft-asked question of whether
now is a good time to be investing in the Dow stocks. It isn't the question
we choose to concern ourselves with. Rather, we ask, what's your time horizon?
If it's several years (or decades), can you think of a better place to be
invested than common stocks? We can't.
So, all times are good for beginning a Dow portfolio. There's a certain measure
of chance involved, without doubt. Your investment might precede a big
correction. But the long-term odds are that you're more likely to invest
before a rise than before a decline. And long-term, even those with bad luck
initially, who continue to save and invest, are likely to do marvelously
well. Rather than Carpe Diem, then, Carpe Cras. (Any Latin teachers out there
to correct my remedial knowledge?) Fool on!
(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material
is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting
to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent
of The Motley Fool.
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