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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (May 12, 1997) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average entered record high territory again today. Inevitably such an event will raise questions in novice and experienced investors alike. Is this the right time to be investing in a Dow-based strategy?

Underneath such a question, however, is an assumption that runs counter to Folly. To ask such a question implies that what happens today (or even tomorrow, next month, or for the next year) is of primary importance to us. It is not.

We firmly believe that stock investing is a long-term proposition. The absolute minimum for an investment in the stock market is 3-5 years. (This doesn't suggest that you'll stay invested in the same stocks throughout that period, but that you will stay fully invested in stocks.)

With a much longer-term perspective, then, say five, ten, twenty five years into the future, we're not particularly concerned with the direction of "the market" today. That's a convenient philosophy for us, of course, because we don't believe anyone's very good at predicting short-term market movements anyway. It's a game we feel is less fruitful than a long-term commitment to stocks.

If you're considering starting a Dow portfolio, let me glean a line from Tom Gardner's exposition of long-term Cask King investing: there are no buy points. You invest when you're ready and then you stay fully invested in the best available stocks you can identify at any particular moment (presumably using an approach like the Foolish Four or its cousins), riding out peaks and valleys rather than trying to jump in and out of the market based on some macro-economic factor.

In other words, I don't have an answer to the oft-asked question of whether now is a good time to be investing in the Dow stocks. It isn't the question we choose to concern ourselves with. Rather, we ask, what's your time horizon? If it's several years (or decades), can you think of a better place to be invested than common stocks? We can't.

So, all times are good for beginning a Dow portfolio. There's a certain measure of chance involved, without doubt. Your investment might precede a big correction. But the long-term odds are that you're more likely to invest before a rise than before a decline. And long-term, even those with bad luck initially, who continue to save and invest, are likely to do marvelously well. Rather than Carpe Diem, then, Carpe Cras. (Any Latin teachers out there to correct my remedial knowledge?) Fool on!

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>
  3. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  4. *General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  5. *Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  6. Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  7. Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  8. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  9. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
  10. DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    +   1/8   32.88
GM   +   7/8   58.75
CHV  +1  3/8   72.75
MMM  +   7/8   92.38
               Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   +1.10%   2.41%  -2.18%
        DJIA     +1.65%   3.98%  13.02%
        S&P 500  +1.56%   4.53%  13.08%
        NASDAQ   +0.68%   6.62%   4.12%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     72.75    11.92%
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     92.38    11.30%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     58.75     5.38%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     32.88   -21.26%


     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00  11130.75  $1185.75
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00  11085.00  $1125.00
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25  10516.25   $537.00
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  15747.13 -$4251.13


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $48910.42

  

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