The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (May 8, 1997) -- I've written about taxes a number
of times in recent weeks, since the budget negotiations held out the promise
of reduced capital gains taxes. Last week it was announced that an agreement
framework was reached, and that capital gains tax cuts were, indeed, in the
package.
The details have yet to be announced, and require the House Ways and Means
Committee to write the new legislation. Some Washington pundits believe we
may see the 28% maximum long-term rate shrink to 19.8%, with some indexing
of capital gains for inflation (the real killer for long-term investors as
you're paying taxes on inflation rather than real growth without such indexing).
Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, however, appears to be pushing for even
more significant changes. While Lott hasn't expressed a number for the new
rate, he believes they "can do something dramatic in the capital-gains area."
One crucial element was announced today (at least tentatively). This morning
the chairmen of the House and Senate tax-writing committees proposed that
the effective date for the new regulation be set at May 7 (yesterday).
If this proposal is approved, all sales of stock from yesterday on would
be treated under the new capital gains tax rates, whatever they turn out
to be. No one really knows what this will do to the market. Some people fear
that the reduction will cause a flurry of selling as long-term investors
can finally get out of positions with a lowered tax burden.
My personal belief (and this may be worth about as much as my market predictions
-- 20,000 on the Dow in a decade) is that there will be little net effect.
Yes, some investors will unload long-held positions, but I suspect the proceeds
will work themselves back into other issues, creating a net zero-effect for
the overall market.
Nevertheless, having one piece of the new picture in place (the effective
date of the rate change) helps out. Stay Foolish!
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