The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (May 7, 1997) -- Face it; we're spoiled. That's right.
We've had it so good for so long of late, we've lost perspective. (It's nice,
though.) Let's look at the numbers.
Since the 1920s, the major market indices have increased roughly 11% per
year. That's a hefty rate of growth when you compare it to other investment
vehicles. But in the fifth or sixth year of a major Bull market, we've gotten
used to much higher returns for the Dow, more than 20% a year in 1995 and
1996.
When 1997 started off at a slower pace than the two previous years, pundits
right and left were predicting a weak year for the market. Today, with the
Dow giving back over 140 points, the attitude seemed to be depressed.
Time for a reality check. Even after today's drop, the Dow is up 9.8% for
the year. It's only May! We're within a percentage point of the market's
long-term average annual gain with more than seven months to go. Of course
there's no guarantee we won't drop from here, but even if the year were to
end today, it would be recorded as a typical gain.
If we compounded the return over twelve months, the number's absolutely terrific,
approximately 30%. For a year, then, when no one expected a strong market,
we've posted a terrific 4-month return without anyone remarking the growth
rate.
Don't get me wrong; I'm not predicting anything for the rest of the year.
I simply find it interesting that we lose a bigger perspective after a couple
of years in a row that "bust the curve." I'd be thrilled with this year's
returns every four months, wouldn't you?
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