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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (May 7, 1997) -- Face it; we're spoiled. That's right. We've had it so good for so long of late, we've lost perspective. (It's nice, though.) Let's look at the numbers.

Since the 1920s, the major market indices have increased roughly 11% per year. That's a hefty rate of growth when you compare it to other investment vehicles. But in the fifth or sixth year of a major Bull market, we've gotten used to much higher returns for the Dow, more than 20% a year in 1995 and 1996.

When 1997 started off at a slower pace than the two previous years, pundits right and left were predicting a weak year for the market. Today, with the Dow giving back over 140 points, the attitude seemed to be depressed.

Time for a reality check. Even after today's drop, the Dow is up 9.8% for the year. It's only May! We're within a percentage point of the market's long-term average annual gain with more than seven months to go. Of course there's no guarantee we won't drop from here, but even if the year were to end today, it would be recorded as a typical gain.

If we compounded the return over twelve months, the number's absolutely terrific, approximately 30%. For a year, then, when no one expected a strong market, we've posted a terrific 4-month return without anyone remarking the growth rate.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not predicting anything for the rest of the year. I simply find it interesting that we lose a bigger perspective after a couple of years in a row that "bust the curve." I'd be thrilled with this year's returns every four months, wouldn't you?

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>
  3. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  4. *General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  5. *Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  6. Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  7. Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  8. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  9. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
  10. DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    -   3/4   32.63
GM   -1  1/8   57.50
CHV  +   1/8   69.63
MMM  -   1/2   89.75
               Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   -1.24%   0.03%  -4.45%
        DJIA     -1.93%   1.09%   9.88%
        S&P 500  -1.47%   1.78%  10.11%
        NASDAQ   -0.41%   4.93%   2.47%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     89.75     8.13%
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     69.63     7.12%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     57.50     3.14%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     32.63   -21.86%


    Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00  10770.00   $810.00
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00  10652.63   $707.63
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25  10292.50   $313.25
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  15627.38 -$4370.88


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $47773.79

  

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