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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (May 5, 1997) -- Trumpets, please! Once again the Dow rests in record territory. From a peak of 7,085 in March, the Dow rapidly lost roughly 10%, closing as low as 6,392. Today, however, just two months after its previous peak, the market's regained all that ground and then a tad more, setting a new closing record above 7,200.

When the Fed hiked interest rates, the short-term traders saw it as a sign to bail out of the market completely. And it sounded logical: interest rates going up, get out of stocks for now. Yet for now at least, it seems to have been a bad call, demonstrating again why we don't believe in making market calls. (If someone had put a gun to my head during the correction in March, I'd have said get out as well.)

We don't believe in such market calls, though, for precisely the reason we've seen over the last two months. No one really knows what's around the corner and picking a portfolio of top-flight stocks and riding the surf as the sea throws it at you is a better plan over the long haul. Those who jumped out of the market when it dropped 7% or 8% (the fast actors, that is) are now struggling with the question of whether to buy back in because of the fear that they'll miss the next big move. (It may have already passed them by.)

I'm sure there are a handful of market timers and wizards out there who believe me simple-minded for maintaining that staying fully invested is the better plan; so be it. But for every market timer who's successful, I daresay there are scores and scores who become market roadkill in the attempt.

In accepting the market's ups and downs, you accomplish two important feats. One, you remove uncertainty about your plan. You know you'll stay invested always and can quit agonizing over when to jump in and out. And two, you've put the stock market's long-term history (and I mean close to a century) in your corner. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 11% a year. Not a bad trend to have on your side by ignoring the short-term fluctuations.

In more local news, INTERNATIONAL PAPER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %> got a boost today when Bears Stearns analyst Linda Lieberman upgraded the stock to "buy" from "neutr

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>
  3. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  4. *General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  5. *Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  6. Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  7. Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  8. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  9. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
  10. DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    ---       33.75
GM   +   7/8   57.88
CHV  +1  1/8   70.25
MMM  +2  3/4   90.38
               Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   +1.38%   1.66%  -2.90%
        DJIA     +2.01%   2.92%  11.87%
        S&P 500  +2.13%   3.61%  12.09%
        NASDAQ   +2.60%   6.22%   3.73%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     90.38     8.89%
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     70.25     8.08%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     57.88     3.81%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     33.75   -19.16%


     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00  10845.00   $885.00
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00  10748.25   $803.25
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25  10359.63   $380.38
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  16166.25 -$3832.00


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $48550.42

  

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