The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (May 5, 1997) -- Trumpets, please! Once again the Dow
rests in record territory. From a peak of 7,085 in March, the Dow rapidly
lost roughly 10%, closing as low as 6,392. Today, however, just two months
after its previous peak, the market's regained all that ground and then a
tad more, setting a new closing record above 7,200.
When the Fed hiked interest rates, the short-term traders saw it as a sign
to bail out of the market completely. And it sounded logical: interest rates
going up, get out of stocks for now. Yet for now at least, it seems to have
been a bad call, demonstrating again why we don't believe in making market
calls. (If someone had put a gun to my head during the correction in March,
I'd have said get out as well.)
We don't believe in such market calls, though, for precisely the reason we've
seen over the last two months. No one really knows what's around the corner
and picking a portfolio of top-flight stocks and riding the surf as the sea
throws it at you is a better plan over the long haul. Those who jumped out
of the market when it dropped 7% or 8% (the fast actors, that is) are now
struggling with the question of whether to buy back in because of the fear
that they'll miss the next big move. (It may have already passed them by.)
I'm sure there are a handful of market timers and wizards out there who believe
me simple-minded for maintaining that staying fully invested is the better
plan; so be it. But for every market timer who's successful, I daresay there
are scores and scores who become market roadkill in the attempt.
In accepting the market's ups and downs, you accomplish two important feats.
One, you remove uncertainty about your plan. You know you'll stay invested
always and can quit agonizing over when to jump in and out. And two, you've
put the stock market's long-term history (and I mean close to a century)
in your corner. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 11% a year.
Not a bad trend to have on your side by ignoring the short-term fluctuations.
In more local news, INTERNATIONAL PAPER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %> got a boost today
when Bears Stearns analyst Linda Lieberman upgraded the stock to "buy" from
"neutr
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