The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (May 1, 1997) -- Rumors are flying fast and furiously
that the White House and Congressional leaders are close to announcing a
framework for a balanced federal budget by 2002. The bond market, of course,
loves the prospect, which would theoretically mean lower interest rates.
But after several days of strong gains and some nervousness about snags that
may still lie ahead in the budget process, blue chips took a step backwards
today. This is the first day in some time that the Dow dropped while the
Nasdaq Composite rose.
Among the many considerations concerning Wall Street in the budget talks
is the fate of capital gains taxes. President Clinton has publicly declared
support for a cut or elimination of capital gains taxes on home sales, but
the issue of capital gains on stocks is still very much up in the air.
The Republicans, however, are pushing for a broad-based capital gains tax
reduction. For stock investors, such a decision can have a significant impact
on our portfolio strategies. If long-term cap gains taxes drop to 15% or
18% (numbers rumored to be possibilities), a strategy like the Dow Dividend
Approach becomes that much more attractive. The gap between a long-term maximum
rate of 15% and a maximum ordinary tax rate of nearly 40% is enormous, and
makes the necessity for solid long-term approaches even more essential.
If one takes the historical average return for the Foolish Four of 23% and
cut it by the current maximum long-term tax rate of 28%, the after-tax return
is 16.5%. If the tax rate drops to 15%, that after-tax rate climbs to 19.5%.
Compound that 3% difference over 20 years, starting, say with $25,000, and
the difference between the two portfolios is more than $45,000. That's an
extra $45,000 in your pocket rather than Uncle Sam's, on precisely the same
series of investments with the same initial capital.
We should know in the next day or so what precisely is being proposed. But
it's an issue very much at the heart of long-term investing gains. For more
on long-term strategies, take a look at today's
classic
fribble reprinting, my
Workshop
report, and Tom Gardner's report later this evening on the
Fool
Portfolio.
(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material
is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting
to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent
of The Motley Fool.
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