The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 21, 1997) -- Earnings news continues to control
the market, and two more Dow Approach stocks posted their first-quarter numbers
today.
AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %> showed a decline of 19% in first-quarter earnings
from last year, but came in exactly in line with Wall Street expectations.
For the quarter, earnings were 69 cents per share versus 85 cents last year.
As you undoubtedly know, AT&T has been reorganizing after spinning off
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %> and NCR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") end if %>. The company
believes this quarter's results are right on their target performance for
turning the giant communications company around. But anyone who holds AT&T
in a Dow portfolio knows how ugly things have been of late. With today's
report (and subsequent drop in the stock price), the question has to be,
Is the worst over or is the ugliness just getting started?
Going the other direction today were the oil stocks, led by a strong earnings
report from EXXON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") end if %>. Profits for the largest American oil
company rose 15% over the same period last year. Earnings were 87 cents per
share versus last year's 76 cents (split-adjusted).
As a contrarian strategy, the basic Dow Approach (high yield, low price)
points to AT&T as an eventual winner. Historically, though, a stock carrying
the highest yield on the Dow and at the lowest price of the ten highest yielders
(as AT&T is today) has been a warning sign of possible further trouble
ahead. (For more details on this theory, read the file for Unemotional Value
in the Foolish Workshop.)
As always, it's your call. I only want to point out possible patterns weve
seen before. Whether AT&T follows that pattern or not is, of course,
open to speculation.
On a final note, GOODYEAR TIRE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") end if %> supplants DUPONT
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %> as the tenth highest yielder, and therefore one of our Dow Approach
stocks. Once again, these stocks can flip-flop many times in the coming days,
so don't be alarmed to see one or the other appear and disappear frequently.
(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material
is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting
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