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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 21, 1997) -- Earnings news continues to control the market, and two more Dow Approach stocks posted their first-quarter numbers today.

AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %> showed a decline of 19% in first-quarter earnings from last year, but came in exactly in line with Wall Street expectations. For the quarter, earnings were 69 cents per share versus 85 cents last year.

As you undoubtedly know, AT&T has been reorganizing after spinning off LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %> and NCR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") end if %>. The company believes this quarter's results are right on their target performance for turning the giant communications company around. But anyone who holds AT&T in a Dow portfolio knows how ugly things have been of late. With today's report (and subsequent drop in the stock price), the question has to be, Is the worst over or is the ugliness just getting started?

Going the other direction today were the oil stocks, led by a strong earnings report from EXXON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") end if %>. Profits for the largest American oil company rose 15% over the same period last year. Earnings were 87 cents per share versus last year's 76 cents (split-adjusted).

As a contrarian strategy, the basic Dow Approach (high yield, low price) points to AT&T as an eventual winner. Historically, though, a stock carrying the highest yield on the Dow and at the lowest price of the ten highest yielders (as AT&T is today) has been a warning sign of possible further trouble ahead. (For more details on this theory, read the file for Unemotional Value in the Foolish Workshop.)

As always, it's your call. I only want to point out possible patterns we’ve seen before. Whether AT&T follows that pattern or not is, of course, open to speculation.

On a final note, GOODYEAR TIRE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") end if %> supplants DUPONT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %> as the tenth highest yielder, and therefore one of our Dow Approach stocks. Once again, these stocks can flip-flop many times in the coming days, so don't be alarmed to see one or the other appear and disappear frequently.

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  3. *Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>
  4. * Goodyear Tire
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("
    (NYSE:GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GT)") end if %>
  5. * Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  6. General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  7. Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  8. Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  9. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  10. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    -   1/2   33.13
GM   +   1/4   56.50
CHV  +   1/8   64.75
MMM  ---       83.25
               Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   -0.38%  -3.23%  -7.38%
        DJIA     -0.65%   1.17%   3.29%
        S&P 500  -0.78%   0.43%   2.65%
        NASDAQ   -1.52%  -1.45%  -6.75%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     56.50     1.35%
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     83.25     0.30%
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     64.75    -0.38%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     33.13   -20.66%


     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25  10113.50   $134.25
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00   9990.00    $30.00
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00   9906.75   -$38.25
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  15866.88 -$4131.38


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $46308.42

  

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