The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard
LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 14, 1997) -- Act II of the Dow Splits Drama took
place today. With PHILIP MORRIS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %> splitting 3-for-1 last
week and EXXON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") end if %> splitting 2-for-1 today, the official Beating
the Dow rankings have been reshaped significantly. The third and final act
for this production, DUPONT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %>, will split next month.
If you've watched the current rankings change of late, then, be aware that
this is why the BTD order has been so volatile. The fact that a split can
change the rankings, though, concerns a lot of readers, since after all,
a split is a somewhat arbitrary event.
Keep in mind, however, that a stock split doesn't affect a stock's yield
at all. The dollar dividend is split by the same ratio as the share price,
keeping the yield constant. Dividend yield is the primary screen used in
our Dow Approaches, so the splits aren't a significant event in that regard.
It's the final screen (price), of course, that's affected when a top-yielding
stock splits. Over several decades, however, the low-price screen has proven
an important overlay for the high-yield model. The reason is somewhat
counter-intuitive because it shouldn't matter what the raw price of a stock
is. We've all seen occasions where a $100 stock is more undervalued than
a $20 stock, right?
The high-yield screen, though, is our measure of value. Within that group
of supposedly out-of-favor stocks, we want as much volatility as we can get
since the assumption is that the stocks are all going to rebound. Whether
logical or not, lower-priced stocks are easier to move and thus enjoy an
extra pop when the market rises. This is borne out by the better returns
for the Beating the Dow approach compared to the simple high-yield approach
over the last several decades.
Whether a stock enters the low-priced five, then, by dropping in price, raising
its dividend, or splitting its stock once already among the high yielders,
it doesn't make much difference. Stay the course with this time-tested approach
and don't try to out-smart it. It's pretty tough to do, frankly.
(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material
is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting
to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent
of The Motley Fool.
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