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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard

LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 14, 1997) -- Act II of the Dow Splits Drama took place today. With PHILIP MORRIS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %> splitting 3-for-1 last week and EXXON <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") end if %> splitting 2-for-1 today, the official Beating the Dow rankings have been reshaped significantly. The third and final act for this production, DUPONT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %>, will split next month.

If you've watched the current rankings change of late, then, be aware that this is why the BTD order has been so volatile. The fact that a split can change the rankings, though, concerns a lot of readers, since after all, a split is a somewhat arbitrary event.

Keep in mind, however, that a stock split doesn't affect a stock's yield at all. The dollar dividend is split by the same ratio as the share price, keeping the yield constant. Dividend yield is the primary screen used in our Dow Approaches, so the splits aren't a significant event in that regard.

It's the final screen (price), of course, that's affected when a top-yielding stock splits. Over several decades, however, the low-price screen has proven an important overlay for the high-yield model. The reason is somewhat counter-intuitive because it shouldn't matter what the raw price of a stock is. We've all seen occasions where a $100 stock is more undervalued than a $20 stock, right?

The high-yield screen, though, is our measure of value. Within that group of supposedly out-of-favor stocks, we want as much volatility as we can get since the assumption is that the stocks are all going to rebound. Whether logical or not, lower-priced stocks are easier to move and thus enjoy an extra pop when the market rises. This is borne out by the better returns for the Beating the Dow approach compared to the simple high-yield approach over the last several decades.

Whether a stock enters the low-priced five, then, by dropping in price, raising its dividend, or splitting its stock once already among the high yielders, it doesn't make much difference. Stay the course with this time-tested approach and don't try to out-smart it. It's pretty tough to do, frankly.

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>
  3. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  4. * Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  5. *General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  6. Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  7. Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  8. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  9. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
  10. DuPont
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    -   1/8   33.50
GM   +   1/2   53.50
CHV  +1  5/8   63.88
MMM  -   1/8   81.13
               Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   +0.58%  -4.79%  -8.88%
        DJIA     +0.94%  -2.00%   0.06%
        S&P 500  +0.82%  -1.77%   0.40%
        NASDAQ   +0.79%  -0.43%  -5.78%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     63.88    -1.73%
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     81.13    -2.26%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     53.50    -4.04%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     33.50   -19.76%


     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00   9772.88  -$172.13
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00   9735.00  -$225.00
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25   9576.50  -$402.75
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  16046.50 -$3951.75


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $45562.17

  

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