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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard

LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 4, 1997) -- I recall a time when a college roommate of mine called after he found out what I do for a living and wanted some advice. Well, that's not completely true; he wanted a miracle!

My roommate (I'll call him Mr. Animal to give you a picture of the kind of student he was in college) is roughly my age -- 35 at the time. He was just settling into a decent job, had persuaded a lovely woman to marry him, and they have no children. (They aren't planning to, either. She says the Animal's enough of a child for her.)

They had just bought their dream house and were able to lock in a nice fixed-rate 30-year mortgage at 7.25%. They both work, but their combined income is fairly modest, and by the time they set aside an emergency fund, their investment account (which is parked in a money market IRA) totals $5,000. And with the new mortgage payment and their car loan, Animal doesn't see how they can save more than $100 a month in the future.

Is it hopeless for the Animals? Let's find out.

Let's take their $5,000 IRA and put it into our favorite conservative retirement strategy -- The Dow Approach. Over the last 26 years, the four-stock approach has compounded at an annual growth rate of 23%, so we'll use that figure for our calculations. In addition, the Animals can invest another $100 a month in their IRA account, $1,200 a year. (Since the Dow Approach only trades once a year, we'll leave the $1,200 idle in the IRA until the next portfolio rollover.)

Since the Animals want to retire when their house is paid for and they reach age 65, let's compound that IRA account for 30 years. When the banker hands the Animals the paid deed to their house, their IRA will have grown to (wait for it) $5.1 million!!!! That's right; $5,000 down and $100 a month for 30 years at 23% grows to $5.1 million.

But wait!, I hear you say. Won't bread cost $50 a slice in 30 years? Ah, too true, inflation hound. So let's account for it, too. If we account for an annual inflation rate of 3%, that $5.1 million 30 years from now would be worth $2.1 million in today's dollars. If at retirement, then, the Animals stick the whole shooting match into a simple S&P 500 Index fund averaging 10.5% a year, they'll be able to retire on an average annual salary of $220,500 in today's dollars -- without ever touching the principal.

Or even better, if they remain Foolish and keep the money in the Dow Approach, they can retire on an annual average salary of $483,000 in today's dollars, considerably more than they ever made on the job!

Needless to say, Animal was thrilled to hear this, but not nearly as thrilled as his wife, who has to keep answering to her mother for why she married this guy in the first place. Now she has the retort she's been looking for: "He's going to make me a millionaire!"

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  3. *Goodyear Tire
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GT)") end if %>
  4. *General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  5. *Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  6. Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  7. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  8. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
  9. Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  10. Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are listed in italics and preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    +   1/8   33.88
GM   -   1/4   54.00
CHV  +   3/8   65.00
MMM  -   1/2   83.25
Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   +0.03%  -3.33%  -7.48%
        DJIA     +0.75%  -0.87%   1.21%
        S&P 500  +1.01%   0.10%   2.32%
        NASDAQ   +1.89%   1.23%  -4.21%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     83.25     0.30%
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     65.00     0.00%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     54.00    -3.14%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     33.88   -18.86%


     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00   9990.00    $30.00
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00   9945.00     $0.00
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25   9666.00  -$313.25
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  16226.13 -$3772.13


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $46258.42

  

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