The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard
LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 4, 1997) -- I recall
a time when a college roommate of mine called after he found out what I do
for a living and wanted some advice. Well, that's not completely true; he
wanted a miracle!
My roommate (I'll call him Mr. Animal to give you
a picture of the kind of student he was in college) is roughly my age --
35 at the time. He was just settling into a decent job, had persuaded a lovely
woman to marry him, and they have no children. (They aren't planning to,
either. She says the Animal's enough of a child for her.)
They had just bought their dream house and were
able to lock in a nice fixed-rate 30-year mortgage at 7.25%. They both work,
but their combined income is fairly modest, and by the time they set aside
an emergency fund, their investment account (which is parked in a money market
IRA) totals $5,000. And with the new mortgage payment and their car loan,
Animal doesn't see how they can save more than $100 a month in the future.
Is it hopeless for the Animals? Let's find out.
Let's take their $5,000 IRA and put it into our
favorite conservative retirement strategy -- The Dow Approach. Over the last
26 years, the four-stock approach has compounded at an annual growth rate
of 23%, so we'll use that figure for our calculations. In addition, the Animals
can invest another $100 a month in their IRA account, $1,200 a year. (Since
the Dow Approach only trades once a year, we'll leave the $1,200 idle in
the IRA until the next portfolio rollover.)
Since the Animals want to retire when their house
is paid for and they reach age 65, let's compound that IRA account for 30
years. When the banker hands the Animals the paid deed to their house, their
IRA will have grown to (wait for it) $5.1 million!!!! That's right; $5,000
down and $100 a month for 30 years at 23% grows to $5.1 million.
But wait!, I hear you say. Won't bread cost $50
a slice in 30 years? Ah, too true, inflation hound. So let's account for
it, too. If we account for an annual inflation rate of 3%, that $5.1 million
30 years from now would be worth $2.1 million in today's dollars. If at
retirement, then, the Animals stick the whole shooting match into a simple
S&P 500 Index fund averaging 10.5% a year, they'll be able to retire
on an average annual salary of $220,500 in today's dollars -- without ever
touching the principal.
Or even better, if they remain Foolish and keep
the money in the Dow Approach, they can retire on an annual average salary
of $483,000 in today's dollars, considerably more than they ever made on
the job!
Needless to say, Animal was thrilled to hear this,
but not nearly as thrilled as his wife, who has to keep answering to her
mother for why she married this guy in the first place. Now she has the retort
she's been looking for: "He's going to make me a millionaire!"
(c) Copyright
1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal
use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups,
is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley
Fool.
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