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The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard

LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 3, 1997) -- For the first time in years, it looks like we're in the middle of a legitimate correction on the Dow. Most pundits don't count anything less than a 10% drop in making this distinction, but with today's continuing fall, the Dow is getting close to the magic mark.

The Nasdaq, of course, has long since passed through the 10% decline level, but today's drop on the Dow brings it down more than 600 points from its March 11 closing high of 7085. We're now off 8.6% from that level.

For the long-term investor, this is precisely the time when the most discipline is required. There are two points each Dow investor needs to keep in mind. First, when the market's dropping, you don't own the market. Over many weak periods in the past, the Dow Approach has held up reasonably well compared to the overall market.

Second, if you sell out when the market's down 10% or 15%, you're probably doing precisely the wrong thing for what is a contrarian strategy. Instead, the long-term investor will even consider buying more during a correction, knowing that sooner or later, the recovery will bring the market back to even higher levels. (By definition, the market has to keep going up over the long haul because the economy grows. Unless you believe our economy will cease to grow, then it's just a matter of time.)

Now there's no guarantee that this correction won't slip into something worse, and there's no way to know when the market will rebound. But it will eventually. And when it does, the out-of-favor stocks the Dow Approach points to may be among the most powerful movers in the recovery. For a historical example, look at 1990, the single worst year for the approaches in the last 26 years. After losing 10% - 18% (depending on the variation one used), the disciplined investor who didn't bail out was rewarded in 1991 with huge gains, as high as 80% or so in some variations. For the two years, that's still a compound growth rate of more than 20%.

Always remember that this is a long-term approach and there's no long-term period in our historical database in which the approach has lost to the market. To help you with your conviction, get a copy of Rudyard Kipling's poem "If" and tape it to your computer monitor. A correction is nothing new. In today's cliche of cliches, we've been there, done that. Don't let it throw you out of a good thing for the long haul.

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

________________________________

The Current
BTD 10

  1. AT&T
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
  2. *Intl. Paper
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
  3. *General Motors
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
  4. *Chevron
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
  5. *Eastman Kodak
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
  6. Minnesota Mining
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
  7. J.P. Morgan
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
  8. Exxon
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
  9. DuPont
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write(":NYSE" & CHR(34) & ">(NYSE:DD)") else Response.Write("" & CHR(34) & " onClick=" & Chr(34) & "openWindow('http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=DD', 'quotebox', 640, 460); return false;" & CHR(34) & ">(NYSE:DD)") end if %>
  10. Philip Morris
    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>

NOTE: Foolish four stocks are listed in italics and preceded by an asterisk.
Updated Daily

1997 Foolish Four Model

Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    -   5/8   34.25
GM   -   3/4   54.38
CHV  -1  3/4   67.13
MMM  -1  5/8   84.00
Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   -1.44%  -3.36%  -7.51%
        DJIA     -0.61%  -1.61%   0.45%
        S&P 500  +0.03%  -0.90%   1.29%
        NASDAQ   +1.06%  -0.65%  -5.99%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M            83.00     83.75     0.90%
   1/2/97  153 Chevron       65.00     64.63    -0.58%
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor    55.75     54.25    -2.69%
   1/2/97  479 AT&T          41.75     33.75   -19.16%


    Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
   1/2/97  120 3M          9960.00  10050.00    $90.00
   1/2/97  153 Chevron     9945.00   9887.63   -$57.38
   1/2/97  179 Gen. Motor  9979.25   9710.75  -$268.50
   1/2/97  479 AT&T       19998.25  16166.25 -$3832.00


                             CASH    $431.29
                            TOTAL  $46245.92

  

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