The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard
LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 3, 1997) -- For the
first time in years, it looks like we're in the middle of a legitimate correction
on the Dow. Most pundits don't count anything less than a 10% drop in making
this distinction, but with today's continuing fall, the Dow is getting close
to the magic mark.
The Nasdaq, of course, has long since passed through
the 10% decline level, but today's drop on the Dow brings it down more than
600 points from its March 11 closing high of 7085. We're now off 8.6% from
that level.
For the long-term investor, this is precisely the
time when the most discipline is required. There are two points each Dow
investor needs to keep in mind. First, when the market's dropping, you don't
own the market. Over many weak periods in the past, the Dow Approach has
held up reasonably well compared to the overall market.
Second, if you sell out when the market's down 10%
or 15%, you're probably doing precisely the wrong thing for what is a contrarian
strategy. Instead, the long-term investor will even consider buying more
during a correction, knowing that sooner or later, the recovery will bring
the market back to even higher levels. (By definition, the market has to
keep going up over the long haul because the economy grows. Unless you believe
our economy will cease to grow, then it's just a matter of time.)
Now there's no guarantee that this correction won't
slip into something worse, and there's no way to know when the market will
rebound. But it will eventually. And when it does, the out-of-favor stocks
the Dow Approach points to may be among the most powerful movers in the recovery.
For a historical example, look at 1990, the single worst year for the approaches
in the last 26 years. After losing 10% - 18% (depending on the variation
one used), the disciplined investor who didn't bail out was rewarded in 1991
with huge gains, as high as 80% or so in some variations. For the two years,
that's still a compound growth rate of more than 20%.
Always remember that this is a long-term approach
and there's no long-term period in our historical database in which the approach
has lost to the market. To help you with your conviction, get a copy of Rudyard
Kipling's poem "If" and tape it to your computer monitor. A correction is
nothing new. In today's cliche of cliches, we've been there, done that. Don't
let it throw you out of a good thing for the long haul.
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