The Daily Dow
FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard
LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 2, 1997) -- Getting
ready to update your Dow portfolio? Let's go through the process together
with a sample portfolio, just to make sure you keep a few issues clear.
The ideal with this approach is to re-balance your
portfolio at the beginning of each new year so that all your positions are
weighted evenly. This spreads the risk evenly among all the stocks since
no one really knows which of the group will perform the best or worst in
any given year. (If you're using the Foolish Four approach, with a doubled
#2 stock, just think of it as two positions in the same stock.)
So, in theory, the process you'd follow is as follows:
1) Sell any of your stocks that are no longer on the current rankings list.
2) Using your current total portfolio value, calculate how much each position
should be worth to start the new year. 3) Adjust any positions you're carrying
over into the new year to equal the value from the previous step. 4) Purchase
the new stocks to the group.
Let's look at some numbers. After your year is up,
suppose you have $5,200 in Chevron, $4,900 in 3M, $6,000 in General Electric,
and $5,500 in Texaco. The new list of stocks to buy, let's say, includes
Chevron, 3M, Eastman Kodak, and AT&T.
So, step one is to sell your General Electric and
Texaco, giving you $11,500 in cash. (I'm skipping trading costs and whatever
cash on hand you might have for the sake of simplicity, but include those
factors in your totals, too.)
Step two is to calculate the new position value.
With $11,500 in cash and $10,100 in the stocks you're carrying over, your
portfolio is worth $21,600. Each of the four positions, then, for next year
should be worth $5,400.
Step three is to adjust the two positions you're
carrying over. That means buying $200 more of Chevron and $500 more of 3M
to bring them up to $5,400 each. That reduces your cash to $10,800, exactly
two positions' worth.
The final step is to buy $5,400 each of the new
stocks, Eastman Kodak and AT&T. Voila!
A couple of important disclaimers. I pulled these
examples out of thin air, so don't assume they match up with any current
or recent rankings; they don't necessarily. Also, depending on how much you
pay for each trade, you might find the adjustments called for in Step three
to be pointless. There's no sense buying or selling just a handful of shares
if it means your commission costs get too large as a percentage of your
portfolio. (Our guideline for maximum trading costs is 2.5% of your portfolio
per year. You should be able to bring it much lower than that with deep-discount
commissions.)
After those four steps, you're ready to work on
your short game for the next year again. Enjoy!
(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All
rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and
redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited
without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.
________________________________ |