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Thursday, March 27, 1997
The Daily Dow

FOOL GLOBAL WIRE
by Robert Sheard

LEXINGTON, KY. (Mar. 27, 1997) -- One of the commandments in Folly is thou shalt not make market predictions. It's not because we're against predictions per se. We just think it's futile to make them, and irresponsible to make them and then not be held accountable.

A belief the Gardners have explained frequently, however, is that interest rates can change the trend of the market fairly abruptly. They make no predictions about when that occurs, but are pretty safe in saying that when interest rates rise, it can get ugly for the stock investor.

Today is a pretty clear example of that principle. After more strong economic data came to light, the bond market sold off, pushing long-term interest rates above 7%, what many investors feel is a somewhat magical level. The fear gripping the throats of traders is that the Fed won't stop with one rate hike, perhaps embarking on a series of hikes which could give the stock market a haircut, maybe even bringing on a recession.

I'll stick to our standard approach, though. No one knows with any degree of certainty what's in store in the coming weeks and months. If the market does indeed get smacked around, you'll hear gooroo after gooroo claiming he "called" it, of course. Before you subscribe to their $300 newsletter, though, find out when they started calling the top. In all likelihood, it will have been two years ago or so, when the Dow was hovering around 4000.

We poor Fools, then, we won't stray from the straight and narrow way -- fully invested, ignoring the ups and downs over the short run, aware that the long-term advantage is ours by not panicking and trying to jump in and out of the market. Hang in there; we need to endure the ugly days together, just as we cheer the victories. That's Foolish investing.

On final note: with the big price changes today, the top ten order gets shaken up a bit, with GOODYEAR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") end if %> falling out and DUPONT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %> climbing back in.

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

The Current BTD 10
1. AT&T
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %>
2. *International Paper
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %>
3. *General Motors
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %>
4. *Chevron
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %>
5. *Eastman Kodak
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:EK)") end if %>
6. Minnesota Mining
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %>
7. J.P. Morgan
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %>
8. DuPont
(NYSE:DD
9. Exxon
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %>
10. Philip Morris
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %>
***NOTE: FOOLISH FOUR
STOCKS ARE PRECEDED BY AN ASTERISK AND ARE ITALICISED

Updated Daily

Today's Dow Numbers
Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
T    -   5/8   35.25
GM   +   1/4   56.13
CHV  -2  1/4   69.88
MMM  -1  7/8   85.63



Day Month Year FOOL-4 -1.68% -4.57% -3.34% DJIA -2.04% -1.99% 4.53% S&P 500 -2.10% -2.14% 4.47% NASDAQ -1.54% -4.54% -3.22% Rec'd # Security In At Now Change 1/2/97 153 Chevron 65.00 69.88 7.50% 1/2/97 120 3M 83.00 85.63 3.16% 1/2/97 179 Gen. Motor 55.75 56.13 0.67% 1/2/97 479 AT&T 41.75 35.25 -15.57% Rec'd # Security In At Value Change 1/2/97 153 Chevron 9945.00 10690.88 $745.88 1/2/97 120 3M 9960.00 10275.00 $315.00 1/2/97 179 Gen. Motor 9979.25 10046.38 $67.13 1/2/97 479 AT&T 19998.25 16884.75 -$3113.50 CASH $431.29 TOTAL $48328.29
        


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Copyright©1997, The Motley Fool, All Rights Reserved.
This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to
news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool, Inc.
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