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The Daily Dow LEXINGTON, KY. (November 4): As I mentioned in Friday's report, don't blink or you'll miss the rankings changing. Caterpillar and International Paper flip-flopped again today, sending the rankings back where they were early last week. Is it the sign of a market top? Is it the demise of the Dow Approach as we know it? Do I have precious little news to report today so I'm making a big deal out of this? (Yep ... the last one.)
In using a double screen (first the dividend yield screen and then the share price screen), any changes around the tenth and eleventh spots on the first list (high yield) can make the rankings change dramatically. What was the number 1 or 2 Beating the Dow stock can suddenly be ejected from the list completely one day, and thrown back into the top group the next day. This shouldn't be a source of concern, though; it happens a couple of times a year as the relative yields fluctuate.
Keep in mind that this approach doesn't pretend to point to THE best stock or group of stocks each year. (If that were the case, we'd all be holding Woolworth this year and enjoying its 60% gains.) What it does do is play the long-term averages which show us that the highest yielding stocks among the 30 generally perform better than the entire field. And from among those highest yielding stocks, the ones with the lowest share prices tend to benefit a tad more because of the way volatility in a low-priced stock makes it easier to move when the hoped-for recovery occurs. (Compare a 50-cent move in a $20 stock versus a 50-cent move in an $80 stock to see the difference.)
So, what if you bought Caterpillar this morning? Should you turn around and sell it tomorrow and buy International Paper? Nope. Who's to say which of the two will perform better over the next 12 months? All you can do is buy the stocks in the current group on the day you're ready. Close your eyes to what happens over the following year and keep your focus down the road many years. This is not a short-term approach, but one that consistently out-performs the stock market (and the mutual funds industry) over decades. That's the kernel of Folly in a nutshell!
Today's Dow Numbers
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