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The Daily Dow LEXINGTON, KY. (September 19): The Dow is still backing up a few steps in anticipation of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Afraid of getting a right jab (interest rate hike) hard in the face, the Dow's laying on the ropes trying to stay out of the direct hit range. Today's nervousness was caused partially by stronger-than-expected housing starts numbers.
As you well know, we don't worry about every number that comes along with this approach. The only numbers that count (and then, only once a year) are the dividend yields for the 30 Dow stocks and their prices. Other than that, it's all just newspaper filler for this approach.
Filling in yesterday's news gap when my Company News link wasn't working well, Chevron was downgraded by CS First Boston to "hold" from "buy." No reason was listed, but like other news, this doesn't affect our approach. (Don't get me wrong; it's not "helpful" news, but it's not anything to act upon.)
There's been some slight confusion about my Unemotional Value model, which is a very slight variation of the original Beating the Dow approach. So let me expand on the approach today. In my fribble about the approach, "Another Dow Acronym?," I focused on the performance of a two-stock approach compared to O'Higgins' one-stock method (the PPP, or #2 stock).
Here's how the method works. Take the top ten yielders from among the Dow 30 and arrange them by share price from lowest to highest (just as with Beating the Dow). Then check the #1 stock (the cheapest of those ten) to see if it is also the highest yielder. If it is, then throw it out. Over the last 35 years, this has often been a tip-off for a stock in real trouble. Then simply choose as many stocks as you need by going down the list.
Now the Foolish Four capitalizes on the performance of the #2 stock by doubling it. But with the Unemotional Value (UV) approach, over the last 35 years, the 2-stock model has out-performed the famous PPP. So if you really want to double up on anything, double up on those first two stocks.
Hope this helps clear up any potential confusion. Fool on!
Transmitted: 9/19/96 Today's Dow Numbers
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