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The Daily Dow LEXINGTON, Ky. (June 7): Believe me, I'm not clairvoyant, but I couldn't have asked for a more perfect setup. What am I talking about?
Early this morning (well, early for me anyway), I wrote and posted a new fribble called "The Unemotional Investor." It was done as a generalized commentary on emotions in investing and wasn't intended to be tied to today's market activity. And the reason I posted it early this morning is that I knew I was going to be away from my computer for virtually the entire day, holed away in the library staring at very small columns of numbers.
But before I left the house, I had CNBC on while I finished inhaling my breakfast and heard the announcement about the big surprise in jobs data and wage inflation. (This, of course, is evidence once again that the people getting paid to make these forecasts have the best job of all. They can predict anything; they're almost always "surprised," and people come back each month wanting to know their expert opinions.) Anyway, I saw the plunge in the bond market and the prediction that the Dow would open down 50-75 points. I groaned, shoved my papers in my bag and took off.
Within a few moments, my day took me away from "market thoughts" so I wasn't sitting there watching the 85 point drop in the morning. If I had, though, I would have agonized over every five or ten points as I watched the ticker go by on CNBC. And all sorts of apocalyptic thoughts would have run through my head, because that's the kind of emotional guy I am.
Imagine my surprise when I got home, just as the market was closing, to find out that yes, it had been an ugly morning, but by the close the Dow was actually back into positive territory, even tacking on a 30 point gain.
The moral, of course, isn't that the market always recovers the same day from these drops so you shouldn't worry about them. The real point of this story (yes, Virginia, there is a point), is that *watching* it happen and tearing one's hair out doesn't do anything but keep Rogaine sales high. By not having to watch, the emotional torture of a whip-saw day like this one (or even a genuine 100 point plunge without the afternoon recovery), isn't as difficult to handle. On the days when the market has plunged, I've had a much easier time when I wasn't watching the blow-by-blow carnage. If you're using the mechanical approaches we teach here in the Fool's School, you can brush off these circus acts because you know your update doesn't roll around for months. And over years and decades, your approach with the historical market odds, not against them.
The day turned out to be a non-event for the Foolish Four, yet watching the minute-by-minute action, at least for me, would have ruined an otherwise pretty terrific day. As it turns out, I couldn't have asked for a more timely example of what I was writing about in this morning's fribble. Take a peek at it this weekend sometime and see if it hit close to home today. If it did, the Foolish Four and IFG are for you (and for me). Have a great weekend, Fool!
Transmitted: 6/7/96
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THE FOOLISH FOUR MODEL (6/7/96) |
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