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The Daily Dow LEXINGTON, Ky. (Mar. 29): Today's close brings down the curtain on Act One for 1996 (the first quarter), so perhaps it's time for a brief look at the program notes during the Interval. For the first part of the year, the Dow has outperformed its rival indices by a considerable margin, suggesting that the overall market hasn't been spectacular and the Blue Chips have been enjoying a bit of a solo run.
That certainly doesn't seem to be the case, however, in the last few sessions. The Nasdaq, which has lagged behind the Dow and the S&P 500 for most of the first quarter (ignoring the so-called January effect which is supposed to prop small-cap stocks up at the beginning of the year), has shown some decided strength late this week. Are the small-caps starting to catch up to the large-caps? Technology picking itself up off of the mat after the fourth-quarter drubbing? Hard to say, but it's certainly something to look for.
So far, the surprise for the Dow has been the strength in some of the cyclicals like Alcoa and Union Carbide. And Sears, trim from its spin-off of Allstate, is racking up more impressive gains after last year's stellar performance. All in all, a nice quarter for Dow stocks. A 9% gain each quarter, if you want to trot out the compounding clown, would mean an annual return of more than 40%. Perhaps not likely after last year's strong showing, but the first quarter returns already equal what most pundits assumed the Dow might gain for the entire year. If the returns only remain flat through the rest of the year, it would be another typical average year for these most boring of stocks.
In our own Foolish Four stocks today, two news items. Smith Barney raised its FY 1996 earnings estimates on Chevron from $3.30 to $3.60 a share, and FY 1997 numbers from $3.55 to $3.75. It didn't help the stock, though, as all of the oils sold off dramatically.
DuPont China said it has signed an agreement with Teijin Hong Kong Ltd. as a 50/50 partner to market meta-aramid fibre products in China, Macau and Hong Kong, beginning on Monday. The new venture will market and sell meta-aramid staple fibres, staple fibre blends and downstream value-added products produced or sourced by DuPont and Teijin.
Look back on this quarter as healthy, if not world-beating, Fools, and enjoy the Final Four weekend! See you when the curtain raises for Act Two.
Transmitted: 3/29/96
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Today's Dow NumbersTHE FOOLISH FOUR (3/29/96) |
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