Wednesday, June 18, 1997

Maverick Tube Corp.
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Phone: 314-537-1314
Price (6/18/97): $34 3/4

HOW DID IT DOUBLE?

Maverick Tube doubled the old fashioned way -- they earned it. There were no Investor's Business Daily articles, no hot press releases, no new products, just a business that began to make more money. A healthy business and strong earnings caused the stock's price to surge over the past six months.

Over the past four quarters, sales have increased an average of over 47% and earnings have surged in comparison to the prior 12 months when it had shown a net loss. The last two quarterly comparisons were +133% and +179% respectively.

There are two reasons for the earnings improvements. First, over half of Maverick's tubes and pipes are sold to the oil and gas industry which, as has been noted here before, has been on a roll. A second factor was the 1994 decision by the company to expand its business into structural tubing. Sales growth from this sector is also coming to the bottom line.

BUSINESS DESCRIPTION

Maverick Tube Corp. makes a whole lot of steel pipe. So much so, in fact, that it consumes 7% of all the rolled steel made in the U.S. The company's tubing is used in oil and gas pipelines, oil and gas drilling, agricultural and construction applications.

FINANCIAL FACTS

Income Statement

      12-month sales: $249.1 million
      12-month income: $10.8 million
      12-month EPS: $1.46
      Profit Margin: 4.3%
      Market Cap: $264.8 million

      Balance Sheet
      Cash: $2.7 million
      Current Assets: $82.5 million
      Current Liabilities: $44.5 million
      Long-term Debt: $10.9 million

      Ratios
      Price-to-earnings: 23.8
      Price-to-sales: 1.1

COULD YOU HAVE FOUND THIS DOUBLE?

Maverick Tube has received little to no attention in the popular press. Five analysts follow the company and the typical rating is a "buy." An investor could have noticed the first quarter 1997 earnings report and taken notice of the tremendous EPS growth the company was enjoying. An awareness of the positive impact of the oil drilling boom on suppliers to that industry may have also steered an investor to the company.

Like the company, an investor looking for a double in Maverick stock would have had to earn it the old fashioned way -- hard work and digging for the facts. There was no single event that pointed to the company. In fact, the company has had only two press releases this year, both of them to announce the quarterly earnings.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

Obviously, Maverick was a better bargain at the beginning of the year than it is now. The PEG is calculated at 0.74, although the utility of the PEG for a cyclical like Maverick is questionable. There are no long-term growth estimates for the company; however, its industry is projected to grow at a 16% annual clip. Combine that number with earnings estimates of $2.02 per share for fiscal year 1998 and you get a YPEG valuation of just over $32.

Analysts have consistently raised estimates in recent weeks and the company's business appears to be booming. While another quick double is not in the cards, investors interested in adding an industrial cyclical stock to their portfolios might want to take a look at Maverick. The expectation of additional capital gains doesn't appear to be a pipe dream.

-Mark Weaver, MD ([email protected])

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