The Boring Portfolio, 06/25/97: Boring Port Report

Boring Portfolio Report
Wednesday, June 25, 1997
by Greg Markus (TMF Boring)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (June 25, 1997) -- A late day sell-off in bonds sent interest rates higher and stocks lower in heavy trading. The Dow fell 68 points, the S&P 500 7 (-0.82%) and the Nasdaq 6 (-0.43%).

The Boring Portfolio dropped 0.69%, with losing holdings outnumbering winners by five to four.

The "Big O" stocks of OXFORD HEALTH <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OXHP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OXHP)") end if %> and ORACLE CORP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") end if %> teamed up to provide some support for the Borefolio today.

Oxford continues to lap other HMO stocks. Oxford gained $15/16 to $74 1/4 as the U.S. House and Senate tussle over differing versions of Medicare legislation, thereby providing a fresh illustration of the "How a Bill Becomes a Law" stuff that you slept through in Intro Poly Sci class.

For its part, Oracle picked up $3/4 on the bid the day after the company's unveiling of Oracle8. Trading volume in ORCL exceeded 8 million shares. Reuters reported that Oracle managing director Edmund Ang expects the database software company's revenues in the Southeast Asian region to grow by more than 50% this year. That market region consists of Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Pakistan being added for the fiscal year that began this month.

On the downside, CISCO SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") end if %> lost $1 15/16 to close at $68 3/4 after being above the $70 mark for most of the day.

More significant was the $1 7/8 submerging of TIDEWATER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") end if %>. Crude oil prices moved up about fifty cents today, following strong words at the OPEC meeting about rolling over existing production limits. That usually helps Tidewater stock, but not so today.

One complicating bit of news came from regional competitor TRICO MARINE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TMAR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TMAR)") end if %>. Trico announced that they had signed a definitive agreement to acquire 12 supply vessels from privately held Otto Candies Inc. (really) for $69 million in cash.

All but two of the vessels are currently in service in the Gulf of Mexico. Two 180-foot vessels are currently engaged in freight and towing operations between the U.S. and the Caribbean. My point in mentioning this is that although this may be good news for Trico, merely shuffling boats from one owner to another doesn't affect overall industry capacity at all.

Trico stock was up sharply for most of the day, but it, too, ended the session lower -- as did shares of HVIDE MARINE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HMAR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HMAR)") end if %> and SEACOR HOLDING <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CKH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CKH)") end if %>. Trading activity in all of these offshore marine services stocks was intense.

I wish I had more in the way of explanation to offer you, but I don't. I'll try to contact the folks at Tidewater tomorrow and see what their take is on today's events. To me, it certainly appears counter-intuitive.

Finally tonight, shares of GREEN TREE FINANCIAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") end if %> fell $13/16. There's nothing counter-intuitive going on there: when interest rates go up, traders send GNT down -- even if modest changes in daily rates have no effect on Green Tree's earnings whatsoever.

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(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

TODAY'S NUMBERS

Stock  Change    Bid
ATLS  -  3/4   31.75
BGP   +  3/16  23.75
CSL   +  1/16  36.69
CSCO  -1 15/16  68.75
GNT   - 13/16  36.06
ORCL  +  3/4   50.88
OXHP  + 15/16  74.25
PMSI  -  1/8   10.88
TDW   -1 7/8   42.00

                   Day   Month    Year  History
        BORING   -0.69%   5.78%  12.17%  29.08%
        S&P:     -0.82%   4.80%  20.01%  43.01%
        NASDAQ:  -0.43%   3.28%  12.02%  38.93%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
  2/28/96  400 Borders Gr    11.26     23.75   110.99%
  5/24/96  100 Oxford Hea    48.02     74.25    54.61%
  8/13/96  200 Carlisle C    26.32     36.69    39.36%
   3/5/97  150 Atlas Air     23.06     31.75    37.69%
  6/26/96  100 Cisco Syst    53.90     68.75    27.55%
   2/2/96  200 Green Tree    30.39     36.06    18.68%
   3/8/96  400 Prime Medi    10.07     10.88     8.01%
 11/21/96  100 Oracle Cor    48.65     50.88     4.57%
 12/23/96  100 Tidewater     46.52     42.00    -9.73%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
  2/28/96  400 Borders Gr  4502.49   9500.00  $4997.51
  5/24/96  100 Oxford Hea  4802.49   7425.00  $2622.51
  8/13/96  200 Carlisle C  5264.99   7337.50  $2072.51
  6/26/96  100 Cisco Syst  5389.99   6875.00  $1485.01
   3/5/97  150 Atlas Air   3458.74   4762.50  $1303.76
   2/2/96  200 Green Tree  6077.49   7212.50  $1135.01
   3/8/96  400 Prime Medi  4027.49   4350.00   $322.51
 11/21/96  100 Oracle Cor  4864.99   5087.50   $222.51
 12/23/96  100 Tidewater   4652.49   4200.00  -$452.49

                             CASH   $7788.54
                            TOTAL  $64538.54