Boring Portfolio Report
Thursday, January 16, 1997
by Greg Markus (MF Boring)
ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Jan. 16) -- A good day for stocks, and an even better day for Boring stocks. The Dow gained 38 points (+0.56%), more than recapturing Wednesday's loss and setting another new high: 6765.37. The S&P 500 rose 0.33%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.51%. As it has been virtually every day in this short new year, trading volume on the major U.S. exchanges was enormous -- nearly as feverish as the rush to sign on to AOL in the evening!
The Boring Portfolio gained nearly a full percentage point in value Thursday. Five stocks advanced, while four declined.
The winners included shares of Carlisle Companies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CSL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CSL)") end if %>, which rose $1 3/8 to $32 on its first day of trading on a post-split basis. This establishes a new high for CSL. It also moves the stock into third place in terms of absolute percentage gains for the Borefolio, passing Green Tree Financial <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") end if %>. CSL has risen 21.56% (plus dividends) since joining the Borefolio on August 13,1996. Not bad for a collection of companies that produce everything from golf cart wheels to roofing materials to non-asbestos brake linings to cafeteria trays.
With so brisk a rise in the share price, it makes sense to consider whether the stock has gotten ahead of itself. Analysts are projecting Carlisle to earn $2.07 per share in 1997 (split-adjusted). That would constitute a 17% advance over an expected $1.77 for 1996. Earnings grew approximately 26% in 1996, and the EPS estimates for 1997 have been moving up steadily over the past few months, as Carlisle has made a number of sensible acquisitions. The stock also pays a modest dividend. Using a 17 multiple and the $2.07 EPS estimate gives us a near-term target price of $35 for CSL.
That's not all that far ahead of the stock's present price. On the other hand, it suggests that the stock is probably not over-valued -- no mean feat in today's market. At any rate, the calculations provide me with no particular reason to sell in advance of the report of fourth quarter earnings, which will occur early next month.
Bravo, Carlisle!
Bravo, too, to Tidewater <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") end if %>. The Tide rolled for a $1 5/8 gain today on solid volume of 546,400 shares. That establishes a new high for the stock. As noted here last night, Tidewater will be reporting results for its fiscal third quarter on the morning of Jan. 21, and I will be covering the follow-up conference call. The consensus of analyst estimates for that quarter, as reported in First Call, is $0.61.
Solectron <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SLR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SLR)") end if %> merits a nod of approval, as well. SLR gained $2 1/4 on above-average trading volume of 369,700 shares. It probably didn't hurt that stocks of leading computer hardware companies such as Digital Equipment, Sun Micro, IBM, and Intel were strong today. Solectron is not merely basking in the reflected glow of some of its customers, though. For its part, the company's recently-acquired Force Computers subsidiary announced yesterday two new products: the Pentura(TM) 8710 and the SPARC CPU-8VT.
The former is a high-performance CompactPCI system based on Intel's Pentium microprocessor and Microsoft's Windows NT operating system. The Pentura 8710 is an embedded computer system that will be of interest to makers of advanced telecommunications, medical, and industrial equipment. The SPARC CPU, as its name implies, is based on the SPARC chip and will also find its way into high-end telecomm, medical imaging, industrial control, and military command and control applications. Click over to http://www.forcecomputers.com to learn more about Force Computers and their products!
Today's Numbers
Stock Change Bid -------------------- BGP - 7/8 36.13 CSL +1 3/8 32.00 CSCO - 1/8 70.25 GNT - 1/4 35.75 ORCL - 1/8 41.13 OXHP +1 1/4 54.63 PMSI + 1/8 11.75 SLR +2 1/4 58.00 TDW +1 5/8 51.38
Day Month Year History
BORING +0.96% 2.56% 2.56% 18.02%
S&P 500 +0.33% 3.92% 3.92% 23.83%
NASDAQ: +0.51% 3.83% 3.83% 28.77%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 22.51 36.13 60.47%
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 53.90 70.25 30.33%
8/13/96 200 Carlisle C 26.32 32.00 21.56%
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 35.75 17.65%
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 10.07 11.75 16.70%
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 48.02 54.63 13.74%
12/23/96 100 Tidewater 46.52 51.38 10.42%
10/15/96 100 Solectron 54.52 58.00 6.37%
11/21/96 100 Oracle Cor 48.65 41.13 -15.47%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 4502.49 7225.00 $2722.51
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 5389.99 7025.00 $1635.01
8/13/96 200 Carlisle C 5264.99 6400.00 $1135.01
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7150.00 $1072.51
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 4027.49 4700.00 $672.51
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 4802.49 5462.50 $660.01
12/23/96 100 Tidewater 4652.49 5137.50 $485.01
10/15/96 100 Solectron 5452.49 5800.00 $347.51
11/21/96 100 Oracle Cor 4864.99 4112.50 -$752.49
CASH $5999.08
TOTAL $59011.58
Transmitted: 1/16/97 7:42 PM (borenmbr)