Boring Portfolio Report
Minneapolis, Minn. (Dec. 6) -- Greetings from MSP airport. I sit here wired
into a pay phone, juggling laptop, and hoping that the battery in my PowerBook
lasts long enough for me to file the Friday Boring recap. Since I flunked
Mavis Beacon's typing tutor three times and type using a grand total of four
fingers and a thumb, it'll be close.
If, like me, you were out of touch with the markets today, you were probably
surprised to discover that a few after-dinner remarks by Chairman Greenspan
were sufficient to send stocks plummeting here and around the globe. At one
point, the Nasdaq was off more than the equivalent of 200 Dow points.
A fairly benign monthly unemployment report helped cushion the blow, but
stocks slumped nonetheless. The Dow dropped 55 points, the S&P 500 lost
0.64%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.96%.
Boring stocks were weak, as well. Altogether, the Borefolio fell 0.84% on
Friday and 1.00% for the week.
Green Tree Financial was one of only two Boring stocks that rose on Friday.
An item in this morning's Wall Street Journal noted that the company has
begun premarketing its latest securitization of manufactured home (MH) loans,
to the tune of $800 million.
According to the item, Green Tree has confirmed that it is experiencing
accelerated prepayments on its recent MH-backed issues. As noted here about
a month ago, part of the story is that loan delinquency rates have risen
slightly and part of the story is that prevailing low interest rates have
motivated some folks to refinance and pay off their previous mortgage loans.
In the greater scheme of things, I would classify this news as, at best,
of minor significance. For one thing, it's not really "news." As I said,
the market has been aware of this information for at least a month already.
Second, as noted here earlier this week, the most significant news for Green
Tree this year (and quite probably next year, as well) is how rapidly its
business outside of the MH mortgage loan niche has expanded. Some analysts
are expecting that these newer businesses (home equity loans, especially)
may have already gone from being a relatively small sideline to constituting
almost half of Green Tree's loan originations.
Oracle fell $1 1/8 today. The stock has been under pressure this week, quite
possibly the result of all the promotion surrounding Informix's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IFMX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IFMX)") end if %> unveiling of its Universal Server software. This, you may recall, is
software designed to handle audio, video, graphical, and what-have-you
information as well as the traditional alphanumeric stuff that gets stored
in databases.
I haven't personally seen the Informix product demo'd. Indeed, I haven't
yet spotted an independent review of it anyplace. (If you know of one, please
drop me a note.) I'm quite willing to believe that it's one jim-dandy product,
regardless.
At the same time, though, I think it's fair to say that Oracle makes some
pretty good stuff itself. After all, the company didn't get to be the
overwhelming leader in its field simply on the basis of Sensei Larry's body
surfing skill. And while Informix is flapping its arms about the terrific
capabilities of its Universal Server, Oracle just anounced that it is involved
in what has been called "the largest storage project for unstructured (or
graphical) data in the world."
That project is Ford Motor's effort to put its engineering archive of 26
million technical drawings on-line so that employees and suppliers can access
them via the Internet. According to a Dow-Jones story, the "immense" project
could take two years or more to complete. although a pilot project with 750,000
drawings could be up and running within three months.
As it is now, Ford engineers sometimes have to wait for days to get the drawings
they need, particularly if they are at a remote site. Once the new archive
is complete, access will be a matter of seconds from virtually anywhere in
the world. The story notes that "many of the drawings to be electronically
archived are stored on paper, microfiche or mylar and range from the first
screw in the Model T to the steering wheels of the latest crop of Ford vehicles."
Borders Group (BGP) closed down $1/8 today. In the Motley Fool's stock folder
on Borders (available to folks on AOL), contributor WJ HEFFCO directed attention
to the Website of the American Booksellers Association, at
http://www.bookweb.org/.
What caught WJ HEFFCO's eye was an item at the Website reporting that "For
the seventh year running, a majority of Americans rank books among the items
on their holiday wish lists, according to ABA's annual pre-holiday survey
of consumers conducted by the Gallup Organization. Fifty-one percent of adults
surveyed say they would like to receive a book as a gift this season, including
the 23 percent of adults who said they would 'very much like' to unwrap a
book this year."
Have a Foolish Weekend...
Friday, December 6, 1996
Stock Change Bid
--------------------
BGP - 1/8 36.75
CSL -1 1/2 57.88
CSCO + 5/8 64.88
GNT + 3/8 38.38
ORCL -1 1/8 45.63
OXHP -1 59.88
PMSI - 3/8 12.75
SLR -1 57.50
Day Month Year History
BORING -0.84% -1.00% 18.54% 18.54%
S&P 500 -0.64% -2.30% 18.98% 18.98%
NASDAQ -0.96% -0.38% 23.70% 23.70%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 22.51 36.75 63.24%
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 10.07 12.75 26.63%
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 38.38 26.29%
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 48.02 59.88 24.67%
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 53.90 64.88 20.36%
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 52.65 57.88 9.92%
10/15/96 100 Solectron 54.52 57.50 5.46%
11/21/96 100 Oracle Cor 48.65 45.63 -6.22%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 4502.49 7350.00 $2847.51
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7675.00 $1597.51
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 4802.49 5987.50 $1185.01
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 5389.99 6487.50 $1097.51
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 4027.49 5100.00 $1072.51
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 5264.99 5787.50 $522.51
10/15/96 100 Solectron 5452.49 5750.00 $297.51
11/21/96 100 Oracle Cor 4864.99 4562.50 -$302.49
CASH $10570.94
TOTAL $59270.94
Transmitted: 12/6/96