Boring Portfolio Report
ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Nov. 7) -- Another super day for stocks, helped along by
a drop in interest rates. Rates fell on news from the Federal Reserve that
consumer borrowing declined in September for the first time in more than
three years. The Dow rose 28 points to close above 6200 and establish yet
another new record. Big Board volume exceeded a half-billion shares.
The S&P 500 rose 3 (+0.42%) to increase its push into record territory.
The Nasdaq composite tacked on 9 (+0.69%), ending less than 4 points shy
of its recently-established top.
The Boring Portfolio had a great day, as well, rising 1.27% to send its net
asset value above the $58,000 mark. Five Boring stocks advanced, while Green
Tree and Prime Medical closed unchanged.
Trading activity in many of our holdings was anything but boring on Thursday.
PMSI saw more than 400,000 shares cross the Nasdaq -- five times its average
daily volume. Oxford Health had triple its average activity, Trading in Green
Tree and Borders Group was twice as active as normal. And even Carlisle Companies
had 58,100 shares change hands, more than three times the volume of a typical
session. Wow.
As news of Oxford's strong quarterly report and even stronger prospects continued
to percolate through the market, the stock moved higher by $1 5/8, to close
at a bid of $52 7/8. OXHP's intra-day high of $55 3/8 topped its old record
and represented a 100% advance over where the stock sat barely four months
ago, utterly misunderstood by the efficient market.
Unlike the way I hope you manage your nest egg -- i.e., adding to it on a
regular basis, the Borefolio gets no fresh infusions of cash. So I was unable
in July to add to the OXHP position. Happily, that was not the case for many
other investors in Fooldom, folks who post their questions, comments and
news regularly in the Oxford Health stock folder. Congratulations to them!
Cisco galloped ahead $3 3/8 on volume of nearly 11 million shares. The company
today announced plans to double the size of its presence in the Research
Triangle Park in North Carolina. Cisco will buy an additional 55 acres of
land, bringing its campus in RTP to 100 acres. According to a press release,
the plan is for Cisco to add as many as three buildings to its current three
(including one under construction), to accommodate a workforce of 2,000 people.
The RTP site is home to 15 Cisco work units and is home base for the company's
InterWorks Business Unit.
Institutionally-based analysts have begun to offer their takes on Cisco's
quarterly performance, and the remarks I've seen so far have been uniformly
favorable. A couple of analysts have pointed to the rapid gains Cisco has
made in the ATM and LAN switch markets -- niches in which Cisco had virtually
no presence two years ago. During the last quarter, Cisco also rounded out
its offerings to encompass Ethernet and Token Ring (with the Nashoba
acquisition). With this full-line, Cisco can extend further in establishing
relationships with corporations to build them end-to-end networking solutions.
Cisco still has more to learn about marketing to the small-business/home-business
(SOHO) segment, but it's catching on fast. I may evaluate just how fast --
and how well -- pretty soon. After mulling it over for months, I've pretty
much decided to bite the bullet and put in an ISDN line to the Boring estate.
Film at eleven.
Cisco's campus in North Carolina is not far from one of Solectron's sites.
SLR has been stealthily moving to new highs. Today the stock rose another
$ 3/4, to $57 even.
Lastly tonight, a quick note on Prime Medical. A PMSI shareholder (and
cyber-friend) posted a message that he had spoken with PMSI's CFO Cheryl
Williams today. According to the post, Ms. Williams said there have been
no analyst downgrades of the stock to her knowledge; indeed, Donaldson Lufkin
Jenrette reportedly upped their FY96 estimate by a penny, to $0.66.
Also, no selling by the holders of the shares registered earlier this fall
has occurred -- although what with today's activity in the stock I have to
wonder about that. In any event, the company is very comfortable with analysts'
estimates, says our poster.
I'm comfortable, too. I can find no reason at all to change my view on the
company or on the stock. PMSI continues to execute its plan. Cash on hand
offers the opportunity either to acquire additional lithotripters or to increase
the company's stake in the stone busters in which it currently holds minority
interests. PMSI should make something like $0.75 per share in 1997, with
an internal growth rate in the 25-35% range. According to my math, that makes
$18.75 an entirely plausible near-term target.
Transmitted: 11/7/96
Thursday, November 7, 1996
Stock Change Bid
--------------------
BGP + 1/2 35.13
CSL + 1/2 56.25
CSCO +3 3/8 64.50
GNT --- 39.75
OXHP +1 5/8 52.88
PMSI --- 11.38
SLR + 3/4 57.00
Day Month Year History
BORING +1.27% 3.35% 16.05% 16.05%
S&P 500 +0.42% 3.17% 17.06% 17.06%
NASDAQ +0.69% 2.67% 20.48% 20.48%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 22.51 35.13 56.02%
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 39.75 30.81%
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 53.90 64.50 19.67%
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 10.07 11.38 12.97%
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 48.02 52.88 10.10%
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 52.65 56.25 6.84%
10/15/96 100 Solectron 54.52 57.00 4.54%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 4502.49 7025.00 $2522.51
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7950.00 $1872.51
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 5389.99 6450.00 $1060.01
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 4027.49 4550.00 $522.51
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 4802.49 5287.50 $485.01
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 5264.99 5625.00 $360.01
10/15/96 100 Solectron 5452.49 5700.00 $247.51
CASH $15435.93
TOTAL $58023.43
Transmitted: 11/7/96