Boring Portfolio Report
ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Oct. 22) -- Oof-f-f. Stocks suffered their biggest losses
in two weeks on Tuesday, with technology and healthcare stocks being singled
out for special smacks.
The Dow ended the session off 29 points after triggering loss-limit collars
at -50 during the day. The S&P 500 slipped nearly half a percentage point
in value.
That was nothing compared to the Nasdaq's trouble. It tumbled 16.4 points,
or 1.33%, on the heels of cautions from Microsoft in its quarterly conference
call with analysts. At one point intraday, the Naz was off the equivalent
of nearly 100 Dow points.
By the way, you can ask Microsoft's CFO Mike Brown to elaborate on what went
on in that conference call -- or whatever else you want to know -- in the
AOL Bowl this Thursday at 9pm Eastern time (Event Keyword: Fool). Brown will
be accompanied by the VP of Corporate Development and Treasurer of Mr. Bill's
most excellent company, Greg Maffei.
The Boring Portfolio flopped big-time today, losing 1.35%. Interestingly,
the Borefolio's technology team of Cisco and Solectron were two of the three
Boring stocks that managed to rise. Texas Industries, with a much-appreciated
$2 1/8 gain, was the other.
It's possible that traders went out and bought some TXI shares when they
heard that Ken Allen, the company's treasurer and investor relations director,
had been promoted to VP. (Ken's the guy to call if you have any questions
about the company. That's what I do, and he consistently does his best to
respond ASAP.) Or it may simply be that investors recognized what a bargain
TXI is at its current price. Either way, I'll take the gain -- especially
on a day like today.
Enough of the pleasantries. On to the ugly stuff.
Leading the charge downhill today was Oxford Health Plans, to the tune of
-$3 1/8. The tune was played loudly, too: 6.5 million shares of OXHP skittered
through the Nasdaq wires on Tuesday -- about four times the stock's average
trading volume.
A report today cited Oxford as the #1 health plan in the New York Metro area
in customer satisfaction, again. The study was conducted by CareData Reports,
Inc., an independent research firm. Oxford's Point-of-Service Freedom Plan
captured the top spot in 44 of the 46 key questions related to customer
satisfaction. And in 28 out of the same 46 customer satisfaction questions
for HMOs, Oxford again ranked number one.
Good on you, Oxford. Fat lot of good it does, though, on a day when wire
stories about other healthcare businesses carry headers like: "PhyCorp's
shares slide 13% despite jump ..." or "Medaphis shares plunge 38% as troubles
...."
If that weren't enough, an analyst at Cowan & Co. downgraded OXHP from
"buy" to "neutral" today (no details).
A fresh batch of earnings estimates are out at the First Call site on AOL.
They continue to show that analysts' are expecting that early next month
Oxford Health will report earnings $0.31 per share for its third quarter.
That would constitute a 48% advance over last year. For FY96, prospects are
$1.20 -- or a 69% gain over 1995. The company has already stated that they're
"completely comfortable" with those numbers.
Yesterday, shares of Borders Group booked a $1 3/8 loss. Today the stock
repeated the trick. Wonderful.
Presumably some folks were less than inspired by an interview with Borders
chairman and CEO Robert DiRomualdo that appeared on the Dow Jones wires today
(and therefore may show up in print tomorrow).
In the story, DiRomualdo says stuff like: "I think it will be a fairly decent
Christmas," and Borders is a place to find "a wide array of quality gifts
that won't embarrass people when they give them."
CEO DiRomualdo then went on to observe that "The kind of customers who are
book buyers tend to have more education and more income - the people who
own stock. These people feel they've created wealth. They have."
Hello? Boring to Borders: Buy DiRomualdo a book on media relations. And make
sure he reads it.
If the reader manages to make it to the end of the long interview, DiRomualdo
manages to say that he's comfortable with analysts' estimates for the current
year. The consensus estimate listed in First Call is for EPS of $1.27 for
the FY ending in January. That would represent a 49% gain over FY96. And
that's why BGP is in the Borefolio.
Last up tonight (quickly) is Green Tree. The stock hit an all-time high yesterday
and this morning reported 3Q earnings of $0.61 --right in line with the consensus
number, but a bit under the marks that at least a few analysts were expecting.
The stock sold off in the afternoon but recovered at bit at the close, to
finish off "only" $2 at 4:00pm.
In after-hours trading, the stock continued to recoup lost ground and was
reported as being down $1 3/8 at 4:30pm.
I listened to a tape of the GNT conference call this afternoon and will post
a fuller report tomorrow. Things look fine at Green Tree.
Transmitted: 10/22/96
Tuesday, October 22, 1996
BGP -1 3/8 ...CSL - 3/8 ...CSCO + 5/8 ...GNT -2
OXHP -3 1/8 ...PMSI ---...SPY -13/32...SLR + 1/8 ...TXI +2 1/8
*Scroll down or expand screen for full portfolio accounting
Day Month Year History
BORING -1.35% -2.37% 13.64% 13.64%
S&P 500 -0.46% 2.80% 13.67% 13.67%
NASDAQ -1.33% -0.56% 17.20% 17.20%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gro 22.51 33.25 47.70%
3/8/96 400 Prime Medic 10.07 13.25 31.60%
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 39.88 31.22%
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syste 53.90 61.25 13.64%
7/23/96 100 S&P Deposit 64.15 70.72 10.24%
8/13/96 100 Carlisle Co 52.65 56.63 7.55%
1/29/96 100 Texas Indus 54.50 58.50 7.34%
10/15/96 100 Solectron C 54.52 54.88 0.64%
5/24/96 100 Oxford Heal 48.02 41.25 -14.11%
Rec'd # Security Cost Value Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gro 4502.49 6650.00 $2147.51
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7975.00 $1897.51
3/8/96 400 Prime Medic 4027.49 5300.00 $1272.51
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syste 5389.99 6125.00 $735.01
7/23/96 100 S&P Deposit 6414.99 7071.88 $656.89
1/29/96 100 Texas Indus 5449.99 5850.00 $400.01
8/13/96 100 Carlisle Co 5264.99 5662.50 $397.51
1/29/96 100 Solectron C 5452.49 5487.50 $35.01
5/24/96 100 Oxford Heal 4802.49 4125.00 -$677.49
CASH $2573.46
TOTAL $56820.34