The Motley Fool: The Boring Portfolio

SAN DIEGO, Calif., August 16 -- Tonight's Boring Portfolio recap will be strictly no-nonsense. I just got off a plane in San Diego (as Republicans by the busload were filing in) and just got wired in as tonight's deadline looms.

I see that although the market as a whole was fairly quiet today despite options expirations, the Borefolio got smacked for just under a one percentage-point loss. We had six stocks up and only three down ... but three is enough if the losses are big enough.

As you probably know, Cisco reported EPS of $0.41 after the market closed yesterday. That beat the consensus expectation listed in First Call by a penny, but apparently 71% earnings growth was insufficient to satisfy some traders. The stock was up for much of Friday's session but sold off toward the end of the day, quite possibly in some options-related wheeling and dealing -- about which I honestly could not care less. Cisco ended the day at a bid of $56, down $1 3/4.

A number of analysts reiterated their bullish ratings on CSCO. Most near-term price targets are in the $70 range -- i.e., somewhere around $2.00/share earnings for the coming FY multiplied by a 35 p/e. Sounds plausible to me.

Borders Group also reported earnings yesterday evening: only a nickel loss in the seasonally slow second quarter, easily beating even the most bullish analysts' forecast. Yet the stock fell $1 3/8 in trading today, wounded by a Merrill-Lynch downgrade to near-term "accumulate" from a former "buy." Merrill's long-term rating remains "buy."

I haven't been able to locate the story behind the revision yet (like, in the 15 minutes I've had to look), so there's not much I can say about it. I do find it odd that a stock can beat the analysts' estimate for the quarter, the company would offer no comments whatever to suggest any slowdown (I listened to the teleconference yesterday), and yet the stock would get downgraded. As Bob Dole would say: whatever.

As for our six winners, I could locate no news on any of them, either. I'll simply note that Carlisle finished the week without a single down day since joining the Boring team: up another fifty cents today. And Green Tree Financial has broken through the canopy of the forest to reach new heights: $37 5/8, up an eighth.

Do have a great week-end, folks. You can be sure that I'll have one here in San Diego!

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TODAY'S NUMBERS

BGP -1 3/8

CSL + 1/2

CSCO -1 3/4

GNT + 1/8

OXHP + 1/8

PMSI - 5/8

SHAW + 1/8

SPY +15/32

TXI + 1/4

*Scroll down or expand screen for full portfolio accounting

Day Month Year History

BORING -0.98% 6.58% 11.65% 11.65%

S&P 500 +0.44% 3.95% 7.01% 7.01%

NASDAQ -0.09% 4.92% 8.90% 8.90%

Rec'd # Security In At Now Change

2/28/96 200 Borders Gro 22.51 34.38 52.69%

4/12/96 100 The Shaw Gr 18.84 28.00 48.61%

3/8/96 400 Prime Medic 10.07 13.00 29.11%

2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 37.63 23.82%

7/23/96 100 S&P Deposit 64.15 66.84 4.20%

6/26/96 100 Cisco Syste 53.90 56.00 3.90%

8/13/96 100 Carlisle Co 52.65 54.00 2.56%

5/24/96 100 Oxford Heal 48.02 45.38 -5.52%

1/29/96 100 Texas Indus 54.50 67.75 24.31%

Rec'd # Security Cost Value Change

2/28/96 200 Borders Gro 4502.49 6875.00 $2372.51

2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7525.00 $1447.51

3/8/96 400 Prime Medic 4027.49 5200.00 $1172.51

4/12/96 100 The Shaw Gr 1884.16 2800.00 $915.84

7/23/96 100 S&P Deposit 6414.99 6684.38 $269.39

6/26/96 100 Cisco Syste 5389.99 5600.00 $210.01

8/13/96 100 Carlisle Co 5264.99 5400.00 $135.01

5/24/96 100 Oxford Heal 4802.49 4537.50 -$264.99

1/29/96 100 Texas Indus 5449.99 6775.00 $1325.01

CASH $4428.44

TOTAL $55825.32